Consociationalism - a false dawn? An examination of the capacity of consociational power-sharing to effect rights-based social transformation in conflicted societies

Abstract

Three decades after the conclusion of peace in Bosnia & Herzegovina and Northern Ireland both countries are locked in seemingly permanent political crises. Although the irrespective peace agreements - the Dayton Peace Agreement and the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement – are justifiably eulogised for their role in ending seemingly intractable conflicts, questions remain regarding both the quality of the peace enjoyed in both regions and, relatedly, the capacity of their respective power-sharing arrangements to effect progressive social change. Whilst the contexts within which conflict took place and peace was concluded in both countries differ greatly, the outworkings of their peace agreements are strikingly similar. In positive terms, they have provided a relatively solid foundation for a durable peace. In negative terms, however, both countries are routinely cast as exemplary instances of ‘negative peace’, and as places where government performance remains paralysed by the constitutional battleground, including endless disputes about rights, reconciliation, and legacy issues relating to past conflict. With a particular focus on the application and outworking of consociationalism in both regions, this thesis explores the dynamics at play in the maintenance of both regions as deeply divided societies and in the frustration of the transformative promise of their respective peace agreements. The thesis raises fundamental questions relating to both the construction of peace agreements and the design of consociational power-sharing and, thus, represents a key contribution to the development of related normative theory. Whilst, overall, the thesis testifies to consociationalism’s utility as a means of stabilising post-conflict societies, it challenges its efficacy as a prescription for the longer-term management of peace. With particular regard to the latter, the thesis concludes that consociationalism, especially in scenarios where contested constitutional or identity related questions have not been fully resolved, is predisposed to constrain rather than facilitate the transition of a society from negative to positive peace. The realisation of the wider ambition of a peace settlement in this respect, the thesis argues, mandates a refinement of the consociationalism prescription to include a non-discretionary programmatic approach to rights-based transformative change.

Thesis is embargoed until 31 March 2027.

Date of Award	Jan 2026
Original language	English
Supervisor	Esther McGuinness (Supervisor), Kristian Brown (Supervisor) & Anne Smith (Supervisor)