Tsunami Risk from a Mentawai Islands Megathrust Earthquake: 2006AGUFM.S31C..07M

John McCloskey, Andrea Antonioli, Alessio Piatanesi, K Sieh, Sandy Steacy, Suleyman S Nalbant, P Dunlop, JianDong Huang, M Cocco, Carlo Giunchi

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

Abstract

Interaction stresses from recent great earthquakes on the Sunda Trench subduction zone have made another earthquake, this time under the Mentawai Islands, more likely. The megathrust under Siberut Island has not ruptured since the great 1797 earthquake and may be ripe for triggered failure. Paleogeodetic studies support a range of possible events, the smallest of which would rupture only that part of the megathrust which rupture in 1797 but not in 1833, the largest could propagate southward, breaking the Enganno Island barrier. The practical consequences of these events would depend crucially on their tsunami potential, which in turn depends on details of slip distribution on the future earthquake. Here we employ a Monte Carlo approach to the forward problem and model about 1000 possible earthquakes, calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions resulting from the most likely 100 or so. Results forecast generally smaller tsunamis compared to those generated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We show that the Mentawai Islands, on the fore arc high, play a cruical role in moderating the tsunami hazard, reducing the impact of high slip on at intermediate depths on the megathrust and dissipating energy from tsunami waves generated over the trench. These results will help to constrain preparedness strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular on western Sumatra.
LanguageEnglish
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 11 Dec 2006
EventAmerican Geophysical Union: Fall Meeting - San Francisco, United States
Duration: 11 Dec 200615 Dec 2006

Conference

ConferenceAmerican Geophysical Union
Abbreviated titleAGU
CountryUnited States
CitySan Francisco
Period11/12/0615/12/06

Fingerprint

tsunami
earthquake
trench
rupture
barrier island
wave height
subduction zone
seafloor
hazard
energy
distribution

Keywords

  • Tsunami

Cite this

McCloskey, J., Antonioli, A., Piatanesi, A., Sieh, K., Steacy, S., Nalbant, S. S., ... Giunchi, C. (2006). Tsunami Risk from a Mentawai Islands Megathrust Earthquake: 2006AGUFM.S31C..07M. Abstract from American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, United States.
McCloskey, John ; Antonioli, Andrea ; Piatanesi, Alessio ; Sieh, K ; Steacy, Sandy ; Nalbant, Suleyman S ; Dunlop, P ; Huang, JianDong ; Cocco, M ; Giunchi, Carlo. / Tsunami Risk from a Mentawai Islands Megathrust Earthquake : 2006AGUFM.S31C..07M. Abstract from American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, United States.1 p.
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abstract = "Interaction stresses from recent great earthquakes on the Sunda Trench subduction zone have made another earthquake, this time under the Mentawai Islands, more likely. The megathrust under Siberut Island has not ruptured since the great 1797 earthquake and may be ripe for triggered failure. Paleogeodetic studies support a range of possible events, the smallest of which would rupture only that part of the megathrust which rupture in 1797 but not in 1833, the largest could propagate southward, breaking the Enganno Island barrier. The practical consequences of these events would depend crucially on their tsunami potential, which in turn depends on details of slip distribution on the future earthquake. Here we employ a Monte Carlo approach to the forward problem and model about 1000 possible earthquakes, calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions resulting from the most likely 100 or so. Results forecast generally smaller tsunamis compared to those generated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We show that the Mentawai Islands, on the fore arc high, play a cruical role in moderating the tsunami hazard, reducing the impact of high slip on at intermediate depths on the megathrust and dissipating energy from tsunami waves generated over the trench. These results will help to constrain preparedness strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular on western Sumatra.",
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author = "John McCloskey and Andrea Antonioli and Alessio Piatanesi and K Sieh and Sandy Steacy and Nalbant, {Suleyman S} and P Dunlop and JianDong Huang and M Cocco and Carlo Giunchi",
note = "http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.S31C..07M; American Geophysical Union : Fall Meeting, AGU ; Conference date: 11-12-2006 Through 15-12-2006",
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McCloskey, J, Antonioli, A, Piatanesi, A, Sieh, K, Steacy, S, Nalbant, SS, Dunlop, P, Huang, J, Cocco, M & Giunchi, C 2006, 'Tsunami Risk from a Mentawai Islands Megathrust Earthquake: 2006AGUFM.S31C..07M' American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, United States, 11/12/06 - 15/12/06, .

Tsunami Risk from a Mentawai Islands Megathrust Earthquake : 2006AGUFM.S31C..07M. / McCloskey, John; Antonioli, Andrea; Piatanesi, Alessio; Sieh, K; Steacy, Sandy; Nalbant, Suleyman S; Dunlop, P; Huang, JianDong; Cocco, M; Giunchi, Carlo.

2006. Abstract from American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

TY - CONF

T1 - Tsunami Risk from a Mentawai Islands Megathrust Earthquake

T2 - 2006AGUFM.S31C..07M

AU - McCloskey, John

AU - Antonioli, Andrea

AU - Piatanesi, Alessio

AU - Sieh, K

AU - Steacy, Sandy

AU - Nalbant, Suleyman S

AU - Dunlop, P

AU - Huang, JianDong

AU - Cocco, M

AU - Giunchi, Carlo

N1 - http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.S31C..07M

PY - 2006/12/11

Y1 - 2006/12/11

N2 - Interaction stresses from recent great earthquakes on the Sunda Trench subduction zone have made another earthquake, this time under the Mentawai Islands, more likely. The megathrust under Siberut Island has not ruptured since the great 1797 earthquake and may be ripe for triggered failure. Paleogeodetic studies support a range of possible events, the smallest of which would rupture only that part of the megathrust which rupture in 1797 but not in 1833, the largest could propagate southward, breaking the Enganno Island barrier. The practical consequences of these events would depend crucially on their tsunami potential, which in turn depends on details of slip distribution on the future earthquake. Here we employ a Monte Carlo approach to the forward problem and model about 1000 possible earthquakes, calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions resulting from the most likely 100 or so. Results forecast generally smaller tsunamis compared to those generated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We show that the Mentawai Islands, on the fore arc high, play a cruical role in moderating the tsunami hazard, reducing the impact of high slip on at intermediate depths on the megathrust and dissipating energy from tsunami waves generated over the trench. These results will help to constrain preparedness strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular on western Sumatra.

AB - Interaction stresses from recent great earthquakes on the Sunda Trench subduction zone have made another earthquake, this time under the Mentawai Islands, more likely. The megathrust under Siberut Island has not ruptured since the great 1797 earthquake and may be ripe for triggered failure. Paleogeodetic studies support a range of possible events, the smallest of which would rupture only that part of the megathrust which rupture in 1797 but not in 1833, the largest could propagate southward, breaking the Enganno Island barrier. The practical consequences of these events would depend crucially on their tsunami potential, which in turn depends on details of slip distribution on the future earthquake. Here we employ a Monte Carlo approach to the forward problem and model about 1000 possible earthquakes, calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions resulting from the most likely 100 or so. Results forecast generally smaller tsunamis compared to those generated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We show that the Mentawai Islands, on the fore arc high, play a cruical role in moderating the tsunami hazard, reducing the impact of high slip on at intermediate depths on the megathrust and dissipating energy from tsunami waves generated over the trench. These results will help to constrain preparedness strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular on western Sumatra.

KW - Tsunami

M3 - Abstract

ER -

McCloskey J, Antonioli A, Piatanesi A, Sieh K, Steacy S, Nalbant SS et al. Tsunami Risk from a Mentawai Islands Megathrust Earthquake: 2006AGUFM.S31C..07M. 2006. Abstract from American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, United States.