Tomorrow’s World, Consumer, Tourist

I Yeoman, C Munro, U McMahon-Beattie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

28 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In a world of 9/11 and Tsunami, trying to predict the future of tourism is an uncertain science. VisitScotland, the national tourism agency of the Scotland uses a process of scenario planning and futures thinking in order to make sense of that uncertain future. This paper, examines how world mega trends and consumer behaviour will shape the future tourists. Four scenarios are constructed using the principles of cognitive mapping. Firstly, a right royal treatment scenario describes the business traveller as sophisticated, demanding and time sensitive. He/she wants exceptional service but is only willing to pay a premium price for added value rather than functionality. The tourist living local scenario describes the authentic tourist as someone that is discerning but wants to ‘live local’. They are from a networked society where information is freely available. They are ethical and inconspicuous consumers who have grown up in an affluent world. Their values and beliefs are based upon an untrusting and anxious society fuelled by safety. The authentic tourist feels safe in the past rather than the artificial world of Disneyland. The living the low-brow and high-brow life scenario reflects cultural capital being driven by an educated well-travelled consumer who is more concerned with experience than material possessions. The Asia gets going scenario is a realization that the middle classes of China are driving the growth of tourism across the world by 2015; here, Chinese tourists want to live their dreams.
LanguageEnglish
Pages173-189
JournalJournal of Vacation Marketing
Volume12
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006

Fingerprint

Tourists
Scenarios
Tourism
Information society
Business travellers
Price premium
Middle class
Cultural capital
China
Consumer behaviour
Added value
Tsunami
Functionality
Make-to-order
Scotland
Scenario planning
Safety
Cognitive mapping
September 11 attacks
Asia

Cite this

Yeoman, I ; Munro, C ; McMahon-Beattie, U. / Tomorrow’s World, Consumer, Tourist. In: Journal of Vacation Marketing. 2006 ; Vol. 12, No. 2. pp. 173-189.
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note = "Reference text: Yeoman, I. and Lederer, P. (2005) ‘Scottish Tourism: Visions and Scenarios’, Journal of Vacation Marketing 11(1): 67–83. (2) Yeoman, I. and McMahon-Beattie, U. (2005) ‘Designing a Scenario Planning Process, Using a Blank Piece of Paper’, Hopsitality & Tourism Research 6(1): 273–84. (3) Yeoman, I. and Durie, A. (2005) ‘Retrospect & Prospect: How the History of Scottish Tourism Will Shape the Future’, Paper submitted to Hospitality & Tourism Management. (4) WTO (2004) World Overview and Tourism Market Trends. Madrid: World Tourism Organisation. Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, ref. 2 above. (6) Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, ref. 2 above. (7) Hines, A. (2003) ‘Applying Integral Futures to Environmental Scanning’, Futures Research Quarterly 19(4): 49–62. (8) Future Foundation (2005) ‘Consumer Trends’, URL (consulted 24 March 2005): http:///www.nvisiononline.co.uk (9) The key trends identified by the Future Foundation are assembled from their omnibus survey of British and European adults. The survey is recognized as one of the leading consumer surveys, interviewing 1000 adults in the UK and 15,000 in Europe. Historical data can be traced back to 1980, in order to track change. The Future Foundation also works with the British Household Survey Panel at Essex University. VisitScotland subscribes to these services in order to understand the drivers and trends of consumers. Further details are available at: http://www.futurefoundation. net and http://www.nvisiononline.co.uk (10) Willmott, M. and Nelson, W. (2003) Complicated Lives: Sophisticated Consumers, Intricate Lifestyles, Simple Solutions. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. (11) Maslow, A. and Lowry, R. (1998) Toward a Psychology of Being. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. (12) Sparrow, J. (1998) Knowledge in Organisations. London: Sage Publications. (13) Eden, C. and Ackermann, F. (1998) Making Strategy: The Journey of Strategic Management. London: Sage Publications. (14) Heijden, K. van der, Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G. and Wright, G. (2002) The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. (15) Munro, C. and Yeoman, I. (2005) ‘A Macro-Environmental Analysis of UK Regional Markets 2005–2008’, paper submitted to The Journal of Vacation Marketing. (16) Maslow and Lowry, ref. 11 above. (17) Decision Explorer (2005) URL (consulted 20 March 2005): http://www.banxia.com (18) Jones, M. (1993) Decision Explorer: Reference Manual Version 3.1. Glasgow: Banxia Software Limited. (19) Yeoman, I. (2005) ‘Developing a Conceptual Map of Soft OR Practice’, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Napier University, Edinburgh, May. (20) Sparrow, ref. 12 above. Page 190 Tomorrow’s: World, consumer and tourist Downloaded from",
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Tomorrow’s World, Consumer, Tourist. / Yeoman, I; Munro, C; McMahon-Beattie, U.

In: Journal of Vacation Marketing, Vol. 12, No. 2, 2006, p. 173-189.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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