Tomorrow’s World, Consumer, Tourist

I Yeoman, C Munro, U McMahon-Beattie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

38 Citations (Scopus)


In a world of 9/11 and Tsunami, trying to predict the future of tourism is an uncertain science. VisitScotland, the national tourism agency of the Scotland uses a process of scenario planning and futures thinking in order to make sense of that uncertain future. This paper, examines how world mega trends and consumer behaviour will shape the future tourists. Four scenarios are constructed using the principles of cognitive mapping. Firstly, a right royal treatment scenario describes the business traveller as sophisticated, demanding and time sensitive. He/she wants exceptional service but is only willing to pay a premium price for added value rather than functionality. The tourist living local scenario describes the authentic tourist as someone that is discerning but wants to ‘live local’. They are from a networked society where information is freely available. They are ethical and inconspicuous consumers who have grown up in an affluent world. Their values and beliefs are based upon an untrusting and anxious society fuelled by safety. The authentic tourist feels safe in the past rather than the artificial world of Disneyland. The living the low-brow and high-brow life scenario reflects cultural capital being driven by an educated well-travelled consumer who is more concerned with experience than material possessions. The Asia gets going scenario is a realization that the middle classes of China are driving the growth of tourism across the world by 2015; here, Chinese tourists want to live their dreams.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)173-189
JournalJournal of Vacation Marketing
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished (in print/issue) - 2006

Bibliographical note

Reference text: Yeoman, I. and Lederer, P. (2005) ‘Scottish
Tourism: Visions and Scenarios’, Journal of
Vacation Marketing 11(1): 67–83.
(2) Yeoman, I. and McMahon-Beattie, U.
(2005) ‘Designing a Scenario Planning
Process, Using a Blank Piece of Paper’,
Hopsitality & Tourism Research 6(1):
(3) Yeoman, I. and Durie, A. (2005) ‘Retrospect
& Prospect: How the History of
Scottish Tourism Will Shape the Future’,
Paper submitted to Hospitality & Tourism
(4) WTO (2004) World Overview and Tourism
Market Trends. Madrid: World Tourism
Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, ref. 2
(6) Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, ref. 2
(7) Hines, A. (2003) ‘Applying Integral Futures
to Environmental Scanning’, Futures Research
Quarterly 19(4): 49–62.
(8) Future Foundation (2005) ‘Consumer
Trends’, URL (consulted 24 March 2005):
(9) The key trends identified by the Future
Foundation are assembled from their omnibus
survey of British and European adults.
The survey is recognized as one of the
leading consumer surveys, interviewing
1000 adults in the UK and 15,000 in Europe.
Historical data can be traced back to
1980, in order to track change. The Future
Foundation also works with the British
Household Survey Panel at Essex University.
VisitScotland subscribes to these services
in order to understand the drivers and
trends of consumers. Further details are
available at: http://www.futurefoundation.
net and
(10) Willmott, M. and Nelson, W. (2003) Complicated
Lives: Sophisticated Consumers, Intricate
Lifestyles, Simple Solutions. Chichester:
John Wiley & Sons.
(11) Maslow, A. and Lowry, R. (1998) Toward a
Psychology of Being. Chichester: John Wiley
& Sons.
(12) Sparrow, J. (1998) Knowledge in Organisations.
London: Sage Publications.
(13) Eden, C. and Ackermann, F. (1998) Making
Strategy: The Journey of Strategic Management.
London: Sage Publications.
(14) Heijden, K. van der, Bradfield, R., Burt,
G., Cairns, G. and Wright, G. (2002) The
Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning
with Scenarios. Chichester: John Wiley &
(15) Munro, C. and Yeoman, I. (2005) ‘A
Macro-Environmental Analysis of UK
Regional Markets 2005–2008’, paper
submitted to The Journal of Vacation
(16) Maslow and Lowry, ref. 11 above.
(17) Decision Explorer (2005) URL (consulted
20 March 2005):
(18) Jones, M. (1993) Decision Explorer: Reference
Manual Version 3.1. Glasgow: Banxia Software
(19) Yeoman, I. (2005) ‘Developing a Conceptual
Map of Soft OR Practice’, Unpublished
PhD Thesis, Napier University,
Edinburgh, May.
(20) Sparrow, ref. 12 above.
Page 190
Tomorrow’s: World, consumer and tourist
Downloaded from


Dive into the research topics of 'Tomorrow’s World, Consumer, Tourist'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this