The future of luxury: mega drivers, new faces and scenarios

What is the future of luxury? Using scenario planning, this paper explores four possible futures of luxury set in 2030. Scenario 1, Trading Up to Luxury, discusses how consumers with increased wealth aspire to buy luxury products and experiences. Scenario 2, Prestige Luxury, focuses on the behaviours of the seriously wealthy and examines how the mega-rich influence luxury markets. Scenario 3, Enrichment and Experiential Luxury, illustrates how the concept of luxury has become less about materialism and more about experiences. Scenario 4, Craft and Authentic Luxury, illustrates how the exclusivity of luxury is framed by craftsmanship, history and uniqueness. This paper is based on an examination of the evolution of luxury as a concept and highlights eleven contemporary drivers of change including the democratisation of luxury, demanding consumers and premium pricing. The study allows those involved in luxury industries to understand change and, using the scenarios, to position their products or experiences.