Abstract
Background
Despite the theoretical overlap between conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality, their distinctions remain insufficiently understood. This study explored these constructs and their clinical significance within a nationally representative sample (N = 1497).
Methods
We measured sociodemographic and psychological variables early in the COVID-19 pandemic (T1) and assessed conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality one year later (T2), during a period of heightened visibility of these beliefs. This longitudinal design allowed us to analyse how early factors shaped these belief systems. We conducted factor analyses and regression models to disentangle their relationships and identify distinct predictors.
Results
Conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality emerged as distinct constructs. We found that paranoid beliefs were more strongly associated with psychological factors (e.g. anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty), whereas conspiracy beliefs were driven by sociopolitical variables (e.g. income, political ideology). We identified external locus of control as the sole predictor of conspiracy mentality. Few participants showed strong endorsement of coronavirus conspiracy beliefs, which followed a skewed distribution similar to paranoid beliefs in the general population.
Discussion
These findings highlight the importance of tailored interventions targeting specific predictors, with critical implications for mental health and public health strategies.
Despite the theoretical overlap between conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality, their distinctions remain insufficiently understood. This study explored these constructs and their clinical significance within a nationally representative sample (N = 1497).
Methods
We measured sociodemographic and psychological variables early in the COVID-19 pandemic (T1) and assessed conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality one year later (T2), during a period of heightened visibility of these beliefs. This longitudinal design allowed us to analyse how early factors shaped these belief systems. We conducted factor analyses and regression models to disentangle their relationships and identify distinct predictors.
Results
Conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality emerged as distinct constructs. We found that paranoid beliefs were more strongly associated with psychological factors (e.g. anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty), whereas conspiracy beliefs were driven by sociopolitical variables (e.g. income, political ideology). We identified external locus of control as the sole predictor of conspiracy mentality. Few participants showed strong endorsement of coronavirus conspiracy beliefs, which followed a skewed distribution similar to paranoid beliefs in the general population.
Discussion
These findings highlight the importance of tailored interventions targeting specific predictors, with critical implications for mental health and public health strategies.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1-16 |
| Number of pages | 16 |
| Journal | Psychosis |
| Early online date | 10 Nov 2025 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published online - 10 Nov 2025 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2025 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Data Access Statement
The data and materials for this study were registered in the Open Science Framework (OSF). A more detailed description of the project is available at [link hidden for review]. Data will be made available upon reasonable request to ensure compliance with the review process and ethical considerations.Funding
This research was supported, in part, by grants from the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness [PSI2016-74987-P] and the Instituto de Salud Carlos III grants [COV20/00737-CM]and funds from the UCM for consolidated research groups [GR29/20]. Almudena Trucharte had aUCM doctoral fellowship [CT42/18] and Vanesa Peinado had a Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness doctoral Fellowship [BES-2017082015].PSYCHOSIS 13
Keywords
- Conspiracy beliefs
- paranoid
- conspiracy mentality
- factor analysis
- predictors
