Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey

SS Nalbant, J McCloskey, S Steacy, AA Barka

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    66 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Unlike the North Anatolian fault zone, which has produced 11 large earthquakes since 1939, the East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) has been relatively quiescent in the last century when compared to historical records and has therefore accumulated significant stresses along its length. Determination of the location and likely magnitude of a future probable earthquake along the EAFZ is of interest both because of this history of large earthquakes, (M approximate to 8), and the density of population in the area. Here we calculate stress evolution along the fault zone due to both seismic and tectonic loading since 1822. A sequence of 10 well constrained historical earthquakes is selected and the resulting stresses are calculated, summed with tectonic loading stresses and resolved onto the mapped active faults. We identify two areas of particular seismic risk, one of which might be expected to yield a large event. Our results are sensitive to the previous history of large earthquakes in the region and indicate a need for detailed investigations to constrain the exact rupture geometries of previous earthquakes on these segments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
    LanguageEnglish
    Pages291-298
    JournalEarth and Planetary Science Letters
    Volume195
    Issue number3-4
    Publication statusPublished - Feb 2002

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    earthquake
    fault zone
    North Anatolian Fault
    tectonics
    historical record
    history
    active fault
    rupture
    geometry

    Cite this

    Nalbant, SS., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S., & Barka, AA. (2002). Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 195(3-4), 291-298.
    Nalbant, SS ; McCloskey, J ; Steacy, S ; Barka, AA. / Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey. In: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 2002 ; Vol. 195, No. 3-4. pp. 291-298.
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    Nalbant, SS, McCloskey, J, Steacy, S & Barka, AA 2002, 'Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey', Earth and Planetary Science Letters, vol. 195, no. 3-4, pp. 291-298.

    Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey. / Nalbant, SS; McCloskey, J; Steacy, S; Barka, AA.

    In: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 195, No. 3-4, 02.2002, p. 291-298.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    AU - Nalbant, SS

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    AB - Unlike the North Anatolian fault zone, which has produced 11 large earthquakes since 1939, the East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) has been relatively quiescent in the last century when compared to historical records and has therefore accumulated significant stresses along its length. Determination of the location and likely magnitude of a future probable earthquake along the EAFZ is of interest both because of this history of large earthquakes, (M approximate to 8), and the density of population in the area. Here we calculate stress evolution along the fault zone due to both seismic and tectonic loading since 1822. A sequence of 10 well constrained historical earthquakes is selected and the resulting stresses are calculated, summed with tectonic loading stresses and resolved onto the mapped active faults. We identify two areas of particular seismic risk, one of which might be expected to yield a large event. Our results are sensitive to the previous history of large earthquakes in the region and indicate a need for detailed investigations to constrain the exact rupture geometries of previous earthquakes on these segments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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    Nalbant SS, McCloskey J, Steacy S, Barka AA. Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 2002 Feb;195(3-4):291-298.