Single-well based control and optimization of hydraulic stimulation and induced seismicity: application to the Otaniemi geothermal project

Taeho Kim; Diego Gutierrez-Oribio; Ioannis Stefanou; Mateo Acosta; Jean-Philippe Avouac

doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103396

Single-well based control and optimization of hydraulic stimulation and induced seismicity: application to the Otaniemi geothermal project  

Taeho Kim
, Diego Gutierrez-Oribio
, Ioannis Stefanou
, Mateo Acosta
, Jean-Philippe Avouac

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

In this study, we apply control theory to mitigate earthquake hazards to a stress-based model of enhanced geothermal stimulation. The model considers pore pressure diffusion as the main stressing mechanism and rate-and-state friction as the shear failure mechanism. The controller is designed to follow a given average pressure and the probability of exceedance of a red-light earthquake (the magnitude at which the stimulation would have to stop by regulation) within chosen volumes surrounding the injection source and within a target time. We rigorously prove that the proposed controller can effectively force two output types within the system to given references, despite the presence of model uncertainties, and with minimal system information, using a continuous control signal. This framework is applied to a validated model of the 2018 Otaniemi geothermal stimulation. We use a suite of simulations to identify injection scenarios that outperform the 2018 Otaniemi stimulation. The optimal stimulation achieves higher average pressure in a shorter time with lower seismic hazard. The controller can help determine whether a combination of safety thresholds and optimization targets is feasible and economical. The control framework could be used to design stimulation schedules for enhanced geothermal systems.

Original language	English
Article number	103396
Pages (from-to)	1-19
Number of pages	19
Journal	Geothermics
Volume	132
Early online date	25 Jun 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103396
Publication status	Published (in print/issue) - 30 Nov 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025

Data Access Statement

The data is already public from a previous publication.

Funding

The authors D.G.-O. and I.S. would like to acknowledge the European Research Council's (ERC) support under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant agreement no. 101087771 INJECT) and the Region Pays de la Loire and Nantes M\u00E9tropole under the Connect Talent programme (CEEV: Controlling Extreme EVents - Blast: Blas LoAds on STructures). T.K, J-P.A and M.A acknowledge funding from the NSF/Industry-University Collaborative Research Center \u2018Geomechanics and Mitigation of Geohazards\u2019 (National Science Foundation, United States award No. 1822214). M.A. acknowledges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation, Switzerland through Grant P2ELP2_195127. M.A and J-P.A acknowledge funding from the Resnick sustainability institute at Caltech. The authors thank Prof. Ilmo Kukkonen and the anonymous reviewer for their valuable edits and comments that significantly improved the manuscript. The authors D.G.-O. and I.S. would like to acknowledge the European Research Council\u2019s (ERC) support under the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant agreement no. 101087771 INJECT) and the Region Pays de la Loire and Nantes M\u00E9tropole under the Connect Talent programme (CEEV: Controlling Extreme EVents - Blast: Blas LoAds on STructures). T.K, J-P.A and M.A acknowledge funding from the NSF/Industry-University Collaborative Research Center \u2018Geomechanics and Mitigation of Geohazards\u2019 ( National Science Foundation, United States award No. 1822214 ). M.A. acknowledges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation, Switzerland through Grant P2ELP2_195127 . M.A and J-P.A acknowledge funding from the Resnick sustainability institute at Caltech . The authors thank Prof. Ilmo Kukkonen and the anonymous reviewer for their valuable edits and comments that significantly improved the manuscript.

Funders	Funder number
European Research Council
101087771
National Science Foundation	1822214
P2ELP2_195127

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Induced seismicity
Control theory
Physics-based modeling

Access to Document

10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103396Licence: CC BY

Single-well based control - Accepted VersionAuthor Accepted Manuscript, 41 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Single-well based control and optimization of hydraulic stimulation and induced seismicity: application to the Otaniemi geothermal project  ",

abstract = "In this study, we apply control theory to mitigate earthquake hazards to a stress-based model of enhanced geothermal stimulation. The model considers pore pressure diffusion as the main stressing mechanism and rate-and-state friction as the shear failure mechanism. The controller is designed to follow a given average pressure and the probability of exceedance of a red-light earthquake (the magnitude at which the stimulation would have to stop by regulation) within chosen volumes surrounding the injection source and within a target time. We rigorously prove that the proposed controller can effectively force two output types within the system to given references, despite the presence of model uncertainties, and with minimal system information, using a continuous control signal. This framework is applied to a validated model of the 2018 Otaniemi geothermal stimulation. We use a suite of simulations to identify injection scenarios that outperform the 2018 Otaniemi stimulation. The optimal stimulation achieves higher average pressure in a shorter time with lower seismic hazard. The controller can help determine whether a combination of safety thresholds and optimization targets is feasible and economical. The control framework could be used to design stimulation schedules for enhanced geothermal systems.",

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AU - Acosta, Mateo

AU - Avouac, Jean-Philippe

PY - 2025/11/30

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N2 - In this study, we apply control theory to mitigate earthquake hazards to a stress-based model of enhanced geothermal stimulation. The model considers pore pressure diffusion as the main stressing mechanism and rate-and-state friction as the shear failure mechanism. The controller is designed to follow a given average pressure and the probability of exceedance of a red-light earthquake (the magnitude at which the stimulation would have to stop by regulation) within chosen volumes surrounding the injection source and within a target time. We rigorously prove that the proposed controller can effectively force two output types within the system to given references, despite the presence of model uncertainties, and with minimal system information, using a continuous control signal. This framework is applied to a validated model of the 2018 Otaniemi geothermal stimulation. We use a suite of simulations to identify injection scenarios that outperform the 2018 Otaniemi stimulation. The optimal stimulation achieves higher average pressure in a shorter time with lower seismic hazard. The controller can help determine whether a combination of safety thresholds and optimization targets is feasible and economical. The control framework could be used to design stimulation schedules for enhanced geothermal systems.

AB - In this study, we apply control theory to mitigate earthquake hazards to a stress-based model of enhanced geothermal stimulation. The model considers pore pressure diffusion as the main stressing mechanism and rate-and-state friction as the shear failure mechanism. The controller is designed to follow a given average pressure and the probability of exceedance of a red-light earthquake (the magnitude at which the stimulation would have to stop by regulation) within chosen volumes surrounding the injection source and within a target time. We rigorously prove that the proposed controller can effectively force two output types within the system to given references, despite the presence of model uncertainties, and with minimal system information, using a continuous control signal. This framework is applied to a validated model of the 2018 Otaniemi geothermal stimulation. We use a suite of simulations to identify injection scenarios that outperform the 2018 Otaniemi stimulation. The optimal stimulation achieves higher average pressure in a shorter time with lower seismic hazard. The controller can help determine whether a combination of safety thresholds and optimization targets is feasible and economical. The control framework could be used to design stimulation schedules for enhanced geothermal systems.

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Single-well based control and optimization of hydraulic stimulation and induced seismicity: application to the Otaniemi geothermal project

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Data Access Statement

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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