Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake

A Hubert-Ferrari, A Barka, E Jacques, SS Nalbant, B Meyer, R Armijo, P Tapponnier, GCP King

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    205 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary(1,2) slips at an average rate of 2-3 cm yr(-1) (refs 3-5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes(6,7). This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length(6). Models of earthquake-induced stress change(8) combined with active fault maps(9) had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake(9,10). Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions(9,10). Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data(11). These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio-temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.
    LanguageEnglish
    Pages269-273
    JournalNature
    Volume404
    Issue number6775
    Publication statusPublished - 2000

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    Kocaeli earthquake 1999
    seismic hazard
    earthquake
    North Anatolian Fault
    stress change
    earthquake magnitude
    active fault
    plate boundary
    GPS
    sea

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    Hubert-Ferrari, A., Barka, A., Jacques, E., Nalbant, SS., Meyer, B., Armijo, R., ... King, GCP. (2000). Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. Nature, 404(6775), 269-273.
    Hubert-Ferrari, A ; Barka, A ; Jacques, E ; Nalbant, SS ; Meyer, B ; Armijo, R ; Tapponnier, P ; King, GCP. / Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. In: Nature. 2000 ; Vol. 404, No. 6775. pp. 269-273.
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    abstract = "On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary(1,2) slips at an average rate of 2-3 cm yr(-1) (refs 3-5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes(6,7). This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length(6). Models of earthquake-induced stress change(8) combined with active fault maps(9) had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake(9,10). Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions(9,10). Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data(11). These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio-temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.",
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    Hubert-Ferrari, A, Barka, A, Jacques, E, Nalbant, SS, Meyer, B, Armijo, R, Tapponnier, P & King, GCP 2000, 'Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake', Nature, vol. 404, no. 6775, pp. 269-273.

    Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. / Hubert-Ferrari, A; Barka, A; Jacques, E; Nalbant, SS; Meyer, B; Armijo, R; Tapponnier, P; King, GCP.

    In: Nature, Vol. 404, No. 6775, 2000, p. 269-273.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    AU - Hubert-Ferrari, A

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    AU - Jacques, E

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    AU - Armijo, R

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    AU - King, GCP

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    N2 - On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary(1,2) slips at an average rate of 2-3 cm yr(-1) (refs 3-5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes(6,7). This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length(6). Models of earthquake-induced stress change(8) combined with active fault maps(9) had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake(9,10). Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions(9,10). Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data(11). These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio-temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.

    AB - On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary(1,2) slips at an average rate of 2-3 cm yr(-1) (refs 3-5), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes(6,7). This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length(6). Models of earthquake-induced stress change(8) combined with active fault maps(9) had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake(9,10). Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions(9,10). Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 (ref. 7) as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data(11). These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio-temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.

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    Hubert-Ferrari A, Barka A, Jacques E, Nalbant SS, Meyer B, Armijo R et al. Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. Nature. 2000;404(6775):269-273.