Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China’s carbon-neutral transition

Shurui Wang; Jianlei Mo; Jie Yang; Mingxi Liu; JioaFeng Pan; Xunpen Shi; Y Huang

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.112958

Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China’s carbon-neutral transition

Shurui Wang
, Jianlei Mo
, Jie Yang
, Mingxi Liu
, JioaFeng Pan
, Xunpen Shi
, Y Huang

China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

22 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060 presents major challenges and opportunities for its electricity market. This study analyzes baseline, low-efficiency, and high-efficiency scenarios to represent potential decarbonization pathways in China up to 2060, aiming to estimate the range of electricity prices for each province. A comprehensive dataset covering 5680 coal power units, 342 hydroelectric plants, 172 gas power stations, 19 nuclear power stations, and various solar and wind farms, provides a solid foundation for a bottom-up calculation approach. The results show that most provinces will see a decline in electricity prices due to technological advancements and optimized power generation. The findings in this research contribute to the academic understanding of regional electricity market dynamics under long-term decarbonization scenarios and offer a quantitative basis for evaluating policy impacts on future electricity pricing.

Original language	English
Article number	112958
Pages (from-to)	1-17
Number of pages	17
Journal	iScience
Volume	28
Issue number	7
Early online date	20 Jun 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112958
Publication status	Published (in print/issue) - 18 Jul 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Author(s)

Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 72404263 , 72474213 , and 72433005 ), and the President\u2019s Young Scientists Fund of the Institutes of Science and Development CAS (grant no. E4X3051Q ).

Funders	Funder number
National Natural Science Foundation of China	72404263, 72433005, 72474213
E4X3051Q

Keywords

Economics
Environmental management
Environmental policy
Environmental Policy

Access to Document

10.1016/j.isci.2025.112958

Wang Shurui paperFinal published version, 4.7 MBLicence: CC BY-NC

Cite this

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abstract = "China{\textquoteright}s carbon neutrality goal by 2060 presents major challenges and opportunities for its electricity market. This study analyzes baseline, low-efficiency, and high-efficiency scenarios to represent potential decarbonization pathways in China up to 2060, aiming to estimate the range of electricity prices for each province. A comprehensive dataset covering 5680 coal power units, 342 hydroelectric plants, 172 gas power stations, 19 nuclear power stations, and various solar and wind farms, provides a solid foundation for a bottom-up calculation approach. The results show that most provinces will see a decline in electricity prices due to technological advancements and optimized power generation. The findings in this research contribute to the academic understanding of regional electricity market dynamics under long-term decarbonization scenarios and offer a quantitative basis for evaluating policy impacts on future electricity pricing.",

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AU - Shi, Xunpen

AU - Huang, Y

PY - 2025/7/18

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Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China’s carbon-neutral transition

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

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