Regime shifts in ex post UK commercial property risk premiums

Using a Markov Switching Model, the hypothesis that ex post commercial sectorrisk premiums have stable mean values within a time-varying framework isinvestigated. The probabilities of shifting expected values and the transitionalprobabilities of remaining in a high (low)-risk state at each point in time wereestimated. Results suggest that industrial and retail sectors exhibit regime shiftingbehaviour although the probability of shifting between high- and low-riskstates, while significant, was low compared to them remaining the same. Investigationof the transitional probabilities suggested the propensity to shift regimesdiffers between sectors, but is generally more prevalent in periods of relativeuncertainty.