Recovery targets and timescales for Lough Neagh and other lakes

Brian Rippey; Yvonne McElarney; James Thompson; Michelle Allen; Mary Gallagher; Richard Douglas

doi:10.1016/j.watres.2022.118858

Recovery targets and timescales for Lough Neagh and other lakes

Brian Rippey, Yvonne McElarney, James Thompson, Michelle Allen, Mary Gallagher, Richard Douglas

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Abstract

The framework, model and methods of Nürnberg were applied and evaluated in Lough Neagh and 19 other lakes in order to establish inflow phosphorus concentrations that support target lake values. Supporting concentrations, in the absence of an internal load, were derived and the effect of uncertainty in the model retention coefficient was relatively small, ±11-20 % in Lough Neagh and an average (n = 17) of ±9.7 % in the other lakes. There was further support for the model and methods from an independent estimate of the net internal load in Lough Neagh (13 % difference) and from another model in the other lakes (Supporting concentrations, which should be lower, were by an average of 11 mg P m ⁻³). In the framework, steady state with the phosphorus load is assumed, but, based on a generic lake model, is not likely if the hydraulic residence time>0.5-0.8 yr and should lead to a decrease in phosphorus retention, which was found during three periods in Lough Neagh. Based on a compilation of internal load recovery times from 23 lakes in the literature, it could take between 8 and 20 years for lakes with an internal load to approach their targets.

Original language	English
Article number	118858
Pages (from-to)	1-13
Number of pages	13
Journal	Water Research
Volume	222
Early online date	12 Jul 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118858
Publication status	Published (in print/issue) - 15 Aug 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We would like to thank the main funders of this work, the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs Northern Ireland. The assessment of the accuracy of lake phosphorus models in Irish lakes was supported by the Environmental Protection Agency of Ireland through the DETECT Project (2015-W-LS-9). We are grateful for the support of Wendy McKinley, Brenda Walker, Stephen Prentice, Paul Devine, Brian Ervine, Seamus Connor, Art Niven and Paddy Boylan and for the help of AFBI staff, past and present. We would also like to thank Tom Shatwell for kindly providing the results for Lake Müggelsee and to two anonymous reviewers whose careful reading of the manuscript and comments improved its clarity.

Funding Information:
We would like to thank the main funders of this work, the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs Northern Ireland. The assessment of the accuracy of lake phosphorus models in Irish lakes was supported by the Environmental Protection Agency of Ireland through the DETECT Project ( 2015-W-LS-9 ).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022

Keywords

Internal load
Inflow concentration
Non-steady state
Models
Nitrogen
Phosphorus

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.watres.2022.118858

AAM Author Accepted Manuscript, 476 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

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abstract = "The framework, model and methods of N{\"u}rnberg were applied and evaluated in Lough Neagh and 19 other lakes in order to establish inflow phosphorus concentrations that support target lake values. Supporting concentrations, in the absence of an internal load, were derived and the effect of uncertainty in the model retention coefficient was relatively small, ±11-20 % in Lough Neagh and an average (n = 17) of ±9.7 % in the other lakes. There was further support for the model and methods from an independent estimate of the net internal load in Lough Neagh (13 % difference) and from another model in the other lakes (Supporting concentrations, which should be lower, were by an average of 11 mg P m −3). In the framework, steady state with the phosphorus load is assumed, but, based on a generic lake model, is not likely if the hydraulic residence time>0.5-0.8 yr and should lead to a decrease in phosphorus retention, which was found during three periods in Lough Neagh. Based on a compilation of internal load recovery times from 23 lakes in the literature, it could take between 8 and 20 years for lakes with an internal load to approach their targets.",

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AU - Thompson, James

AU - Allen, Michelle

AU - Gallagher, Mary

AU - Douglas, Richard

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N2 - The framework, model and methods of Nürnberg were applied and evaluated in Lough Neagh and 19 other lakes in order to establish inflow phosphorus concentrations that support target lake values. Supporting concentrations, in the absence of an internal load, were derived and the effect of uncertainty in the model retention coefficient was relatively small, ±11-20 % in Lough Neagh and an average (n = 17) of ±9.7 % in the other lakes. There was further support for the model and methods from an independent estimate of the net internal load in Lough Neagh (13 % difference) and from another model in the other lakes (Supporting concentrations, which should be lower, were by an average of 11 mg P m −3). In the framework, steady state with the phosphorus load is assumed, but, based on a generic lake model, is not likely if the hydraulic residence time>0.5-0.8 yr and should lead to a decrease in phosphorus retention, which was found during three periods in Lough Neagh. Based on a compilation of internal load recovery times from 23 lakes in the literature, it could take between 8 and 20 years for lakes with an internal load to approach their targets.

AB - The framework, model and methods of Nürnberg were applied and evaluated in Lough Neagh and 19 other lakes in order to establish inflow phosphorus concentrations that support target lake values. Supporting concentrations, in the absence of an internal load, were derived and the effect of uncertainty in the model retention coefficient was relatively small, ±11-20 % in Lough Neagh and an average (n = 17) of ±9.7 % in the other lakes. There was further support for the model and methods from an independent estimate of the net internal load in Lough Neagh (13 % difference) and from another model in the other lakes (Supporting concentrations, which should be lower, were by an average of 11 mg P m −3). In the framework, steady state with the phosphorus load is assumed, but, based on a generic lake model, is not likely if the hydraulic residence time>0.5-0.8 yr and should lead to a decrease in phosphorus retention, which was found during three periods in Lough Neagh. Based on a compilation of internal load recovery times from 23 lakes in the literature, it could take between 8 and 20 years for lakes with an internal load to approach their targets.

KW - Internal load

KW - Inflow concentration

KW - Non-steady state

KW - Models

KW - Nitrogen

KW - Phosphorus

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SP - 1

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JO - Water Research

JF - Water Research

M1 - 118858

ER -

Recovery targets and timescales for Lough Neagh and other lakes

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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