Preparing Now for Tomorrow: The future of Scottish Tourism up to 2015

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In order to prepare now for the future of Scottish tourism VisitScotland, the national tourism organisation responsible for marketing Scotland as a tourism destination, undertook a scenario planning exercise in order to make sense and bring structure to futures thinking. Two scenarios were created which painted a picture of Scotland’s political economy and the implications for tourism. The Weekend Getaway was a £7.6 billion tourism industry that saw revenues grow at a rate of 4.4. percent per annum. In this scenario Scottish tourism was vibrant and competitive. Whereas the Yesterday’s Destination scenario saw Scottish tourism only grow at 1 percent per annum resulting in a £5.1 billion industry. Here Scottish tourism was a second choice destination and a second class experience. The implications of the scenarios highlight the importance of creating a strategic conversation about the future of tourism in which VisitScotland was able to create a shared language of futures thinking based upon a vision, which stated that tourism should be Scotland’s First and Everlasting Industry. Underpinning this vision was an ambition to increase tourism revenues by 50 percent by 2015. This vision enabled VisitScotland to identify a number of short term and tactical decisions predominantly driven by marketing strategies. Long term and strategic decisions focused on structural change and creating a tourism economy.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationUnknown Host Publication
Number of pages0
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2004
EventTourism Politics and Democracy Conference - Brighton
Duration: 1 Sep 2004 → …

Conference

ConferenceTourism Politics and Democracy Conference
Period1/09/04 → …

Fingerprint

Tourism
Scenarios
Scotland
Revenue
Industry
Marketing
Political economy
Tourism destination
Destination
Make-to-order
Exercise
Tourism industry
Scenario planning
Strategic decisions
Language
Marketing strategy
Destination choice
Structural change

Cite this

@inproceedings{3afdca7fc24e4e21b2deab27924eb8d2,
title = "Preparing Now for Tomorrow: The future of Scottish Tourism up to 2015",
abstract = "In order to prepare now for the future of Scottish tourism VisitScotland, the national tourism organisation responsible for marketing Scotland as a tourism destination, undertook a scenario planning exercise in order to make sense and bring structure to futures thinking. Two scenarios were created which painted a picture of Scotland’s political economy and the implications for tourism. The Weekend Getaway was a £7.6 billion tourism industry that saw revenues grow at a rate of 4.4. percent per annum. In this scenario Scottish tourism was vibrant and competitive. Whereas the Yesterday’s Destination scenario saw Scottish tourism only grow at 1 percent per annum resulting in a £5.1 billion industry. Here Scottish tourism was a second choice destination and a second class experience. The implications of the scenarios highlight the importance of creating a strategic conversation about the future of tourism in which VisitScotland was able to create a shared language of futures thinking based upon a vision, which stated that tourism should be Scotland’s First and Everlasting Industry. Underpinning this vision was an ambition to increase tourism revenues by 50 percent by 2015. This vision enabled VisitScotland to identify a number of short term and tactical decisions predominantly driven by marketing strategies. Long term and strategic decisions focused on structural change and creating a tourism economy.",
author = "I Yeoman and Una McMahon-Beattie",
note = "Reference text: Barlett, T. (2002) World Overview & Tourism Topics 2002. World Tourism Organisation, Madrid BBC (2003) Scots Economy Shows Slight Growth. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2728375.stm BBC (2002) Analysts Fear Threat of Ever Lower Prices. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2356435.stm Blake, A. , Sinclair, T., Hay, B., and Yeoman, I. (2004) Tourism in Scotland; The Moffat Model for Tourism Forecasting and Policy in Complex Situations, Paper submitted to Tourism Management Durie, A (2003) Scotland for the Holidays: Tourism in Scotland c1780-1939. Tuckwell Press, East Linton. Enterprise and Lifelong Learning Committee (2003). Report on the Future of Tourism in Scotland. Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body. Stationery Office, Edinburgh. Findlay, A (2002) Analysis: Scotland's Census Figures. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2288292.stm Flowers, B. S. (2003) The Art and Strategy of Scenario Writing. Strategy and Leadership. Feb, Vol 31, No 2, pp29-33 Font X. (2002) Environmental Certification in Tourism and Hospitality: Progress, Process and Prospects. Tourism Management. Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 197-205 Future Foundation (2003). The Future of the UK Holiday & Tourism Industry, London Garrod B, Fyall A.& Leask A.(2002) Scottish Visitor Attractions: Managing Visitor Impacts. Tourism Management. Vol 23, No 3, pp265-279. Hall, C (2002) Travel Safety, Terrorism and the Media. The Significance of the Issue-Attention Cycle. Current Issues in Tourism. Vol 5, No 5, pp458-466. Hardin, P. K. (2003) Constructing Experience in Individual Interviews, Autographies and on Accounts: A Poststructuralist Approach. Journal of Advanced Nursing. March, Vol 41, No 6, pp536-544. Harrison S.J.; Winterbottom S.J.; Sheppard C.(1999) The Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Scottish Tourist Industry. Tourism Management, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 203-211 Hay, B & Buchanan, P (2003) Trends in Scottish Tourism, 1993-2003. VisitScotland, Edinburgh. Hay, B. (2002) A Vision of Tourism in 2020. In (Eds) Hood, N. Peat, J. Peters, E. & Young, S. Scotland in a Global Economy: The 2020 Vision. Ch 1 Palgrave, Basingstoke. Heijden, K. Bradfield, R. Burt, G. Cairns, G. & Wright, G. (2002) The Sixth Sense: Accelerated Organizational Learning With Scenarios. Wiley: Chichester. Hodgson, A. M (1992) Hexagnons for Systems Thinking. European Journal of Operational Research. Vol 59, pp220-230 Hooper, P (2002) Marketing London in a Difficult Climate. Journal of Vacation Marketing. Vol 9, No 1, pp 81-88 Jones, M. (1993) Decision Explorer: Reference Manual Version 3.1. Banxia Software Limited, Glasgow. Kerr B. Barron G. & Wood R.(2001) Politics, Policy and Regional Tourism Administration: A Case Examination of Scottish Area Tourist Board Funding. Tourism Management, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 649-657. Kerr B, Wood R.C (2000) Political Values of Tourism and Hospitality Industry Professionals: A Scottish Case Study. Tourism Management, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 323-330. Kerr, W.R. (2003) Tourism Public Policy, and the Strategic Management of Failure, Peragmon, London Lederer, P. (2004) Our Ambition for Scottish Tourism. The Moffatt Lecture, Glasgow Caledonian University, April MacLellan, R (1998) Tourism and the Scottish Environment. In MacLellan, R & Smith, R (Eds) Tourism in Scotland. Thomson Business Press. McLean, G. (2003) The Future of the Barnett Formula: Policy Implications for Scotland, Demo’s 2020, The Book Trust Centre, Edinburgh, March OEF (2003) The Economic Impact of War in Iraq on Scottish Tourism. VisitScotland, Edinburgh Packman, C (2002) Business Tourism Review. VisitScotland, Edinburgh Pine, G. (2004) The Service Experience: The Dimension of Authenticity, Travel and Tourism Research Association Conference, Montreal, June Prentice, R & Andersen, V (2003) Festival as Creative Destination. Annals of Tourism Research Vol 30, No 1, pp 7-30. Prideaux B.(2000) The Role of the Transport System in Destination Development - A General Model Tourism Management, February 2000, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 53-63. Richards, L. (1999) Using Nvivo in Qualitative Research. Qualitative Solutions and Research Pty Ltd. Melbourne Ringland, G. (2002) Scenarios in Public Policy, Wiley, Chichester Scandrett, E. (2003) Scotlands of the Future: Sustainability in a Small Nation, Luath Press Limited, Edinburgh Scottish Executive (2002) 30 Year Vision for Air Transport http://www.scotland.gov.uk/pages/news/2002/07/SEET082.aspx Seaton, A. V. (1998) The History of Tourism in Scotland: Approaches, Sources and Issues. In MacLellan, R & Smith, R (Eds) Tourism in Scotland. Thomson Business Press. Seaton, A.V. (2002) Imagining Scotland: Tradition, Representation and Promotion in Scottish Tourism since 1750. Tourism Management, Vol 19, No 3, pp303-304. Silverstein, M & Fiske, N (2003) Trading Up: The New American Luxury. Portfolio, New York Smith, R (1998) Public Policy for Tourism In Scotland. In MacLellan, R & Smith, R (Eds) Tourism in Scotland. Thomson Business Press. Sparrow. J (1998) Knowledge in Organizations: Access to Thinking at Work. Sage, London. Stevens and Associates and the Scottish Tourism Research Unit (2002) Support for Tourism: An International Comparison, report prepared for the Enterprise and Lifelong Learning Committee of The Scottish Parliament VisitScotland (2003) Know Your Market http://www.scotexchange.net/KnowYourMarket/kym-activityhols.htm Woulde, D. Damgaard, G. Hegge, M. Soholt, D. Bunkers, S. (2003) The Unfolding; Scenario Planning in Nursing. Nursing Science Quarterly. Vol 16, No 1. Pp27-35. Yeoman, I. & Lederer, P. (2004) What Do You Want Scottish Tourism to Look Like in 2015, Scottish Economic Quarterly, Vol. 29, No.2, page numbers to be decided. Yeoman, I & Packman, C. (2003) Interview with Mike Cantley, Vice Chairman – VisitScotland. January. Yeoman, I & Ingold, A (1997) Yield Management: Strategies for the Service Industries. Cassell, London. Yeoman, I. & McMahon-Beattie, U (2004) Designing a Scenario Planning Process Using a Blank Piece of Paper, submitted to Hospitality and Tourism Research.",
year = "2004",
month = "9",
language = "English",
booktitle = "Unknown Host Publication",

}

Yeoman, I & McMahon-Beattie, U 2004, Preparing Now for Tomorrow: The future of Scottish Tourism up to 2015. in Unknown Host Publication. Tourism Politics and Democracy Conference, 1/09/04.

Preparing Now for Tomorrow: The future of Scottish Tourism up to 2015. / Yeoman, I; McMahon-Beattie, Una.

Unknown Host Publication. 2004.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

TY - GEN

T1 - Preparing Now for Tomorrow: The future of Scottish Tourism up to 2015

AU - Yeoman, I

AU - McMahon-Beattie, Una

N1 - Reference text: Barlett, T. (2002) World Overview & Tourism Topics 2002. World Tourism Organisation, Madrid BBC (2003) Scots Economy Shows Slight Growth. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2728375.stm BBC (2002) Analysts Fear Threat of Ever Lower Prices. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2356435.stm Blake, A. , Sinclair, T., Hay, B., and Yeoman, I. (2004) Tourism in Scotland; The Moffat Model for Tourism Forecasting and Policy in Complex Situations, Paper submitted to Tourism Management Durie, A (2003) Scotland for the Holidays: Tourism in Scotland c1780-1939. Tuckwell Press, East Linton. Enterprise and Lifelong Learning Committee (2003). Report on the Future of Tourism in Scotland. Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body. Stationery Office, Edinburgh. Findlay, A (2002) Analysis: Scotland's Census Figures. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2288292.stm Flowers, B. S. (2003) The Art and Strategy of Scenario Writing. Strategy and Leadership. Feb, Vol 31, No 2, pp29-33 Font X. (2002) Environmental Certification in Tourism and Hospitality: Progress, Process and Prospects. Tourism Management. Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 197-205 Future Foundation (2003). The Future of the UK Holiday & Tourism Industry, London Garrod B, Fyall A.& Leask A.(2002) Scottish Visitor Attractions: Managing Visitor Impacts. Tourism Management. Vol 23, No 3, pp265-279. Hall, C (2002) Travel Safety, Terrorism and the Media. The Significance of the Issue-Attention Cycle. Current Issues in Tourism. Vol 5, No 5, pp458-466. Hardin, P. K. (2003) Constructing Experience in Individual Interviews, Autographies and on Accounts: A Poststructuralist Approach. Journal of Advanced Nursing. March, Vol 41, No 6, pp536-544. Harrison S.J.; Winterbottom S.J.; Sheppard C.(1999) The Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Scottish Tourist Industry. Tourism Management, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 203-211 Hay, B & Buchanan, P (2003) Trends in Scottish Tourism, 1993-2003. VisitScotland, Edinburgh. Hay, B. (2002) A Vision of Tourism in 2020. In (Eds) Hood, N. Peat, J. Peters, E. & Young, S. Scotland in a Global Economy: The 2020 Vision. Ch 1 Palgrave, Basingstoke. Heijden, K. Bradfield, R. Burt, G. Cairns, G. & Wright, G. (2002) The Sixth Sense: Accelerated Organizational Learning With Scenarios. Wiley: Chichester. Hodgson, A. M (1992) Hexagnons for Systems Thinking. European Journal of Operational Research. Vol 59, pp220-230 Hooper, P (2002) Marketing London in a Difficult Climate. Journal of Vacation Marketing. Vol 9, No 1, pp 81-88 Jones, M. (1993) Decision Explorer: Reference Manual Version 3.1. Banxia Software Limited, Glasgow. Kerr B. Barron G. & Wood R.(2001) Politics, Policy and Regional Tourism Administration: A Case Examination of Scottish Area Tourist Board Funding. Tourism Management, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 649-657. Kerr B, Wood R.C (2000) Political Values of Tourism and Hospitality Industry Professionals: A Scottish Case Study. Tourism Management, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 323-330. Kerr, W.R. (2003) Tourism Public Policy, and the Strategic Management of Failure, Peragmon, London Lederer, P. (2004) Our Ambition for Scottish Tourism. The Moffatt Lecture, Glasgow Caledonian University, April MacLellan, R (1998) Tourism and the Scottish Environment. In MacLellan, R & Smith, R (Eds) Tourism in Scotland. Thomson Business Press. McLean, G. (2003) The Future of the Barnett Formula: Policy Implications for Scotland, Demo’s 2020, The Book Trust Centre, Edinburgh, March OEF (2003) The Economic Impact of War in Iraq on Scottish Tourism. VisitScotland, Edinburgh Packman, C (2002) Business Tourism Review. VisitScotland, Edinburgh Pine, G. (2004) The Service Experience: The Dimension of Authenticity, Travel and Tourism Research Association Conference, Montreal, June Prentice, R & Andersen, V (2003) Festival as Creative Destination. Annals of Tourism Research Vol 30, No 1, pp 7-30. Prideaux B.(2000) The Role of the Transport System in Destination Development - A General Model Tourism Management, February 2000, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 53-63. Richards, L. (1999) Using Nvivo in Qualitative Research. Qualitative Solutions and Research Pty Ltd. Melbourne Ringland, G. (2002) Scenarios in Public Policy, Wiley, Chichester Scandrett, E. (2003) Scotlands of the Future: Sustainability in a Small Nation, Luath Press Limited, Edinburgh Scottish Executive (2002) 30 Year Vision for Air Transport http://www.scotland.gov.uk/pages/news/2002/07/SEET082.aspx Seaton, A. V. (1998) The History of Tourism in Scotland: Approaches, Sources and Issues. In MacLellan, R & Smith, R (Eds) Tourism in Scotland. Thomson Business Press. Seaton, A.V. (2002) Imagining Scotland: Tradition, Representation and Promotion in Scottish Tourism since 1750. Tourism Management, Vol 19, No 3, pp303-304. Silverstein, M & Fiske, N (2003) Trading Up: The New American Luxury. Portfolio, New York Smith, R (1998) Public Policy for Tourism In Scotland. In MacLellan, R & Smith, R (Eds) Tourism in Scotland. Thomson Business Press. Sparrow. J (1998) Knowledge in Organizations: Access to Thinking at Work. Sage, London. Stevens and Associates and the Scottish Tourism Research Unit (2002) Support for Tourism: An International Comparison, report prepared for the Enterprise and Lifelong Learning Committee of The Scottish Parliament VisitScotland (2003) Know Your Market http://www.scotexchange.net/KnowYourMarket/kym-activityhols.htm Woulde, D. Damgaard, G. Hegge, M. Soholt, D. Bunkers, S. (2003) The Unfolding; Scenario Planning in Nursing. Nursing Science Quarterly. Vol 16, No 1. Pp27-35. Yeoman, I. & Lederer, P. (2004) What Do You Want Scottish Tourism to Look Like in 2015, Scottish Economic Quarterly, Vol. 29, No.2, page numbers to be decided. Yeoman, I & Packman, C. (2003) Interview with Mike Cantley, Vice Chairman – VisitScotland. January. Yeoman, I & Ingold, A (1997) Yield Management: Strategies for the Service Industries. Cassell, London. Yeoman, I. & McMahon-Beattie, U (2004) Designing a Scenario Planning Process Using a Blank Piece of Paper, submitted to Hospitality and Tourism Research.

PY - 2004/9

Y1 - 2004/9

N2 - In order to prepare now for the future of Scottish tourism VisitScotland, the national tourism organisation responsible for marketing Scotland as a tourism destination, undertook a scenario planning exercise in order to make sense and bring structure to futures thinking. Two scenarios were created which painted a picture of Scotland’s political economy and the implications for tourism. The Weekend Getaway was a £7.6 billion tourism industry that saw revenues grow at a rate of 4.4. percent per annum. In this scenario Scottish tourism was vibrant and competitive. Whereas the Yesterday’s Destination scenario saw Scottish tourism only grow at 1 percent per annum resulting in a £5.1 billion industry. Here Scottish tourism was a second choice destination and a second class experience. The implications of the scenarios highlight the importance of creating a strategic conversation about the future of tourism in which VisitScotland was able to create a shared language of futures thinking based upon a vision, which stated that tourism should be Scotland’s First and Everlasting Industry. Underpinning this vision was an ambition to increase tourism revenues by 50 percent by 2015. This vision enabled VisitScotland to identify a number of short term and tactical decisions predominantly driven by marketing strategies. Long term and strategic decisions focused on structural change and creating a tourism economy.

AB - In order to prepare now for the future of Scottish tourism VisitScotland, the national tourism organisation responsible for marketing Scotland as a tourism destination, undertook a scenario planning exercise in order to make sense and bring structure to futures thinking. Two scenarios were created which painted a picture of Scotland’s political economy and the implications for tourism. The Weekend Getaway was a £7.6 billion tourism industry that saw revenues grow at a rate of 4.4. percent per annum. In this scenario Scottish tourism was vibrant and competitive. Whereas the Yesterday’s Destination scenario saw Scottish tourism only grow at 1 percent per annum resulting in a £5.1 billion industry. Here Scottish tourism was a second choice destination and a second class experience. The implications of the scenarios highlight the importance of creating a strategic conversation about the future of tourism in which VisitScotland was able to create a shared language of futures thinking based upon a vision, which stated that tourism should be Scotland’s First and Everlasting Industry. Underpinning this vision was an ambition to increase tourism revenues by 50 percent by 2015. This vision enabled VisitScotland to identify a number of short term and tactical decisions predominantly driven by marketing strategies. Long term and strategic decisions focused on structural change and creating a tourism economy.

M3 - Conference contribution

BT - Unknown Host Publication

ER -