Abstract
Cryptocurrency price prediction poses significant challenges due to the inherent volatility and nonlineardynamics of the market. This study introduces a hybrid stacked modeling framework that integrates machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques, capitalizing on their complementary strengths—ML models are effective at capturing nonlinearfeature interactions in structured data, while DL architectures are adept at modeling temporal dependencies in sequential data. The proposed model leverages historical price data, technical indicators, macroeconomic variables, and sentiment metrics, with feature engineering applied to enhance predictive capability. Empirical evaluation was conducted through two experimental setups: (i) short-term, monthly segment analysis and (ii) long-term generalization via five-fold cross-validation. The hybrid model outperformed individual baseline models, achieving up to 18.3% lower RMSE and 6.7% higher directional accuracy. Additionally, it yielded superior risk-adjusted returns, with Sharpe Ratios reaching 0.094 on the Ethereum dataset. Beyond technical improvements, this research offers foresight into digital financial markets, providing a robust tool for investors, institutions, and policymakers navigating the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. The model supports more informed decision-making, enhances market oversight, and contributes to the development of adaptive regulatory frameworks for digital finance.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 130114 |
| Pages (from-to) | 1-19 |
| Number of pages | 19 |
| Journal | Expert Systems with Applications |
| Volume | 299 |
| Early online date | 23 Oct 2025 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published online - 23 Oct 2025 |
Bibliographical note
0957-4174/© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Data Access Statement
The dataset used in this study is openly available. Foreign exchange rates and gold price data were obtained from Yahoo Finance, while cryptocurrency data were collected from publicly accessible sources such as CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap.Keywords
- Cryptocurrency prediction
- Hybrid ensemble model
- Feature engineering
- Machine learning
- Deep learning
- Algorithmic trading