Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland

Gavin M. Abernethy, David H. Glass

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An age-structured SEIR model simulates the propagation of COVID-19 in the population of Northern Ireland. It is used to identify optimal timings of short-term lockdowns that enable long-term pandemic exit strategies by clearing the threshold for herd immunity or achieving time for vaccine development with minimal excess deaths.
Original languageEnglish
Article number20210896
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of The Royal Society Interface
Issue number188
Early online date9 Mar 2022
Publication statusPublished online - 9 Mar 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank Dr Xu Xu, Dr Ros Porter and Dr Angharad Ugonna of Sheffield Hallam University and Dr Mark McCartney of Ulster University for their assistance conceptualizing the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.


  • Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
  • Research articles
  • compartmental model
  • epidemiology
  • lockdown simulation
  • SARS-CoV-2

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