Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland

Gavin M. Abernethy; David H. Glass

doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0896

Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland

Gavin M. Abernethy, David H. Glass

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

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Abstract

An age-structured SEIR model simulates the propagation of COVID-19 in the population of Northern Ireland. It is used to identify optimal timings of short-term lockdowns that enable long-term pandemic exit strategies by clearing the threshold for herd immunity or achieving time for vaccine development with minimal excess deaths.

Original language	English
Article number	20210896
Pages (from-to)	1-11
Number of pages	11
Journal	Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Volume	19
Issue number	188
Early online date	9 Mar 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0896
Publication status	Published online - 9 Mar 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank Dr Xu Xu, Dr Ros Porter and Dr Angharad Ugonna of Sheffield Hallam University and Dr Mark McCartney of Ulster University for their assistance conceptualizing the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.

Keywords

Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
Research articles
compartmental model
epidemiology
lockdown simulation
SARS-CoV-2

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1098/rsif.2021.0896

rsif.2021.0896.pdfFinal published version, 1.9 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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