Over the next 10 years, Scottish tourism is expected to grow by 50%. One of the keys to that growth is transport which is a sector that is dependent upon oil. This paper considers oil and the global economy and its relationship to Scottish tourism. Consideration is given to the key variables such as oil forecasts, security of supply, cost of production, world demand, alternative forms of energy including renewables and nuclear power. The combination of these facts means that high oil prices are here to stay. Two scenarios are constructed called Energy Inflation and Paying for Climate Change. These were developed using a triangulation of methods including the use of systems thinking models to construct the scenarios to computable general equilibrium modelling to analyse the impact of oil and energy price rises on Scottish tourism. The Energy Inflation scenario presumes mass belief in the plenitude of available oil reserves and the failure to respond quickly enough to alter demand. This triggers a sudden and prolonged period of economic shocks, political instability and environmental disasters. The Paying for Climate Change scenario assumes rising energy prices, combined with conservation measures such as carbon taxes. Both scenarios raise a number of policy issues for the future including oil and fossil fuels being the main sources of energy as there is no real alternative. Renewables and nuclear power will continue to grow and countries will try to reduce further their reliance on oil. Rising oil prices are also noted as a positive feature, driving innovation and new technologies, which will become more economic as oil prices rise. For Scottish tourism, the impact of rising oil prices could mean a bumpy ride with carbon taxes, more wind farms and the possible end of the low cost carrier.
Bibliographical noteReference text: References
Adams (2002)N. Adams
Oil and terrorism
Pennwell Publishing, London (2002)
Anon (2000)Anon (2000). Fuelling Inflation. Economist, 9 March. 〈www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id+2907779〉 (accessed on 25.04.05).
Anon (2005)Anon (2005). Oil prices set to soar. 〈http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4399537.stm〉 (accessed on 21st April).
Bank of England (2006)Bank of England (2006). Inflation report. Accessed at 〈http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/irlatest.htm〉.
BBC (2005a)BBC (2005a). Massive blaze rages at fuel depot. 〈http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4517962.stm〉 (accessed on 1.03.06).
BBC (2005b)BBC (2005b). Hurricanes set to cost BP $700 m. 〈http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4307248.stm〉 (accessed on 1.03.06).
Black (2005)Black, T. (2005). First hydrogen plane tested in the US. 〈http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4643575.stm〉 (accessed on 5.07.05).
Blake & Sinclair (2003)A. Blake, M.T. Sinclair
Tourism crisis management: US response to September 11
Annals of Tourism Research, 30 (4) (2003), pp. 813–832
Article| PDF (180 K)| View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (98)
Blake (2005)Blake, A. (2005). The structure of Moffatt CGE model. Discussion Paper. 〈http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/ttri/〉 (accessed on 25.04.05).
Blake, Sinclair, & Sugiyarto (2003)A. Blake, M.T. Sinclair, G. Sugiyarto
Quantifying the impact of foot and mouth disease on tourism and the UK economy
Tourism Economics, 8 (4) (2003), pp. 449–465
View Record in Scopus| Full Text via CrossRef | Cited By in Scopus (44)
Chittenden (2005)Chittenden, M. (2005). Labour to boost nuclear power, in The Times, April 24, P1, Times online 〈http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printfriendly/0,,1-523-1582577-523,00.html〉.
Crabtree, Dreiselhaus, & Buchanan (2004)Crabtree, G. W., Dreiselhaus, M. S., & Buchanan, M. V. (2004). The hydrogen economy. Physics Today, 1–15. URL: 〈http://www.physicstoday.org/vol.57/155-12/p39.html〉.
De Gues (1997)A.P. De Gues
The living company
Harvard Business School Press, Boston (1997)
Denzin & Lincoln (2002)N.K. Denzin, Y.S. Lincoln
Handbook of qualitative research
Sage Publications, London (2002)
Eden & Ackermann (1998)C. Eden, F. Ackermann
Sage Publications, London (1998)
Energy Information Administration (2002)Energy Information Administration (2002). Impacts on the Kyoto Protocol on US Energy Markets and Economic Activity. Accessed at 〈http://www.eia.doc.Gov/oiaf/Kyoto/kyotorpt.html〉.
Energy Watch (2005)Energy Watch (2005). Powergen in big energy price rise. 〈http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4758032.stm〉 (accessed on 1.03.06).
Environmental News Service (2001)Environmental News Service (2001). Nine European cities to get fuel cell buses. URL: 〈http://ens-newswire.com/cns/dec2001/2001-12-20.asp〉.
Fenton (2005)Fenton, D. (2005). The economic impact of high oil prices. 〈http://www.rbs.com/includes/utilities/pdf_tracker.asp?URL=/content/media_centre/rbs_and_the_econmy/downloads/world/oil_prices.pdf〉. (accessed on 7.09.05).
Gossling, Borgstrom Hanson, Horstmeier, & Saggel (2002)S. Gossling, C. Borgstrom Hanson, O. Horstmeier, S. Saggel
Ecological foorprint analysis as a tool to assess tourism sustainability
Ecological Economics, 43 (2002), pp. 199–211
Article| PDF (238 K)| View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (143)
Gov. of Alberta (2004)Gov. of Alberta (2004). About oil sands. Accessed at 〈http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/88.asp〉.
Gresser & Cusumano (2005)J. Gresser, J. Cusumano
Hydrogen and the new energy economy
The Futurist, March–April (2005), pp. 19–25
View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (1)
Hall (2004)Hall, C. (2004). Air travel adds to global warming. 〈http://oxford.anglican.org/details.php?id=948〉.
Hay & Yeoman (2005)B. Hay, I. Yeoman
Our ambitions for Scottish tourism: Turning scenarios into strategy
Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (1) (2005), pp. 89–102
View Record in Scopus| Full Text via CrossRef | Cited By in Scopus (4)
Hodgson (1992)A.M. Hodgson
Hexagons for systems thinking
European Journal of Operational Research, 59 (3) (1992), pp. 220–230
Article| PDF (812 K)| View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (31)
International Energy Agency (2004)International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook
International Energy Agency, Paris (2004)
Lennon & Gait (2005)Lennon, J. & Gait, M. (2005). Tourism alternative futures evaluation (McTafe) pilot study. Report to VisitScotland, Edinburgh.
Levi-Strauss (1996)C. Levi-Strauss
The savage mind
University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1996)
Lindgren & Bandhold (2003)M. Lindgren, H. Bandhold
Scenario planning: The link between future and strategy
Palgrave, Macmillan, London (2003)
MacLennan (2006)MacLennan, H. (2006). Private correspondence with Ian Yeoman, VisitScotland.
McMahon-Beattie & Yeoman (2006)U. McMahon-Beattie, I. Yeoman
Preparing now for tomorrow: The future for tourism in Scotland up to 2015
P. Burns, M. Novelli (Eds.), Advances in tourism research, tourism and politics: Global frameworks and local realities, Elsevier, Oxford (2006) [Chapter 12]
Millar (2005)Millar, B. (2005). A new generation of aircraft prepares to take off. in future transport. Sunday Times Supplement, 19 June 2005, pp. 8–9.
Ofgem (2005)Ofgem (2005). Wholesale gas prices explained. 〈http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/temp/ofgem/cache/cmsattach/13110_wholesalegaspricesexplained.pdf〉 (accessed on 1.03.06).
Olsthoorn (2001)X. Olsthoorn
Carbon dioxide omissions from International aviation 1950–2050
Journal of Air Transport Management, 7 (2001), pp. 83–93
Porter (1985)M. Porter
Free Press, New York (1985)
Peeters (2000)Peeters P. (2000). Trends in European Tourism Transport and its impacts. Environmentally friendly travelling. EUAT.
Ratcliffe (2003)J. Ratcliffe
Scenario planning: An evaluation of practice
Futures Research Quarterly, 19 (4) (2003), pp. 5–26
Reiss (2006)Reiss, S. (2006). Why $5 gas is good for America. 〈http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.12/gas_pr.html〉 (accessed on 6.02.06).
Reuters (2004)Reuters (2004). Kyoto protocol on climate change and aviation fuel is exempt, in Vacation Technician.com. Accessed at 〈http://www.vacationtechnician.com/x/climatecare2.htm〉.
Sommer (2005)Sommer, N. (2005). Will the oil market continue to be tight? In International Monetary Fund (2005). World Economic Outlook, Washington, pp. 157–183.
Sorid (2005)Sorid, D. (2005). High fuel costs overshadow fedex profit increase. 〈http://fullcoverage.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050623/bs_nm/transport_fedex_earns_dc/nc:1205〉 (accessed on 10.07.05).
Schwartz (1991)P. Schwartz
The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world
Currency Doubleday, New York (1991)
Todd (2003)Todd, G. (2003). UN-WTO background paper on climate change and tourism, in organisation mandate de tourisme-world tourism organisation, proceedings of the first international conference on climate change and tourism, Djerba, Tunisia, (p. 11).
Van Der Heijden, Bradfield, Burt, Cairns, & Wright (2002)K. Van Der Heijden, R. Bradfield, G. Burt, G. Cairns, G. Wright
The sixth sense: Accelerating organisational learning with scenarios
Wiley, Chichester (2002)
Wilkinson (2006)Wilkinson, A. (2006). Private Correspondence with Dr Angela Wilkinson. Head of Special Project, Shell International. February.
World Tourism Organisation (2006)World Tourism Organisation (2006). The impact of rising oil prices on international tourism. Special Report number 26. Accessed at 〈http://titania.wtoelibrary.org/vl=1916464/cl=14/nw=1/fm=docpdf/rpsv/bk/wtouro/9284410525/v1n1/s1/p1〉.
Yeoman (2004)I. Yeoman
What do you want Scottish tourism to look like in 2015?
Quarterly Economic Commentary, 29 (2) (2004), pp. 31–47
Yeoman & Lederer (2005)I. Yeoman, P. Lederer
Scottish tourism: Scenarios and vision
Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (1) (2005), pp. 71–88
Yeoman & McMahon-Beattie (2005)I. Yeoman, U. McMahon-Beattie
Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper
Tourism and Hospitality Research, 5 (3) (2005), pp. 273–285
Full Text via CrossRef
Yeoman, Galt, & McMahon-Beattie (2005a)I. Yeoman, M. Galt, U. McMahon-Beattie
How VisitScotland prepared for war
Journal of Travel Research (2005), pp. 6–20
View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (8)
Yeoman, Lennon, & Black (2005b)I. Yeoman, J. Lennon, L. Black
Foot and mouth disease: A recurring scenario for Scottish tourism
Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (2) (2005), pp. 179–190
Full Text via CrossRef
Yeoman & McMahon-Beattie (2006)I. Yeoman, U. McMahon-Beattie
Climate change and Scottish tourism
Journal of Vacation Marketing, 12 (4) (2006), pp. 371–380
Yeoman, Munro, & McMahon-Beattie (2006)I. Yeoman, C. Munro, U. McMahon-Beattie
Tomorrows world, consumer and tourist
Journal of Vacation Marketing, 12 (4) (2006), pp. 174–190