Northern Ireland’s property market bubble: a preliminary analysis

Emer Gallagher, Derek Bond, Elaine Ramsey

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article applies a recursive regression technique developed by Phillips and Yu (2011) to examine recent property market movements in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in the context of an asset market bubble. This technique, which interprets explosiveness in the price series as evidence of the existence of a bubble, provides a method for identifying not only bubble behaviour but also a dating mechanism. Statistically significant bubble characteristics are identified in both series. For the Republic of Ireland, a prolonged period of explosiveness is detected ranging from 1996Q2 to 2007Q2. Interestingly, the explosiveness is stronger in the late 1990s and early 2000s. For Northern Ireland, the analysis identifies a short yet intense bubble when the market in the Republic had matured, extending from 2005Q3 to 2009Q1 and reaching a peak in 2007Q2. These results taken together indicate the possibility of a spillover effect between the two regions; however, further research to investigate this possibility is necessary.
LanguageEnglish
Pages61-65
JournalApplied Economics Letters
Volume22
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Jan 2015

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Property market
Northern Ireland
Bubble
Republic of Ireland
Spillover effects
Asset markets

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Gallagher, Emer ; Bond, Derek ; Ramsey, Elaine. / Northern Ireland’s property market bubble: a preliminary analysis. In: Applied Economics Letters. 2015 ; Vol. 22, No. 1. pp. 61-65.
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Northern Ireland’s property market bubble: a preliminary analysis. / Gallagher, Emer; Bond, Derek; Ramsey, Elaine.

In: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 22, No. 1, 02.01.2015, p. 61-65.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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