Modelling Temporal Diffusion of PV Microgeneration Systems in Rural Western Kenya

An agent-based model (ABM) is developed in Netlogo as a tool for evaluating temporal diffusion of PV-based communal grids in a rural developing community. ABMs model individual entities within a complex system and the rules that govern the interactions of the entities within the system, to capture the overall effect of such interactions. Results show that given various choices, small PV mircogeneration systems would emerge as the prefered source of electrification for many households. Also, with increasing power demands, many household would prefer communal grids to the national utility grid. Furthermore, introduction of favourable government policies in the form of subsidies and mircocredit facilities, coupled with increasing social acceptance, would lead to increased PV installations and correspondingly to increased communal grid connections. Specifically, introduction of a subsidy of $0.15/kWh would result in an increase of 249% in communal grid connections. Increasing the sensing radius from 1 km to 2 km would result in an increase of 118% in communal grid connections.