Longitudinal trajectories of depression across adolescence, emerging adulthood and adulthood: Findings from the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (add health) (1994–2008)

Catriona Ross; Orla McBride; Ellen Henderson; Gary Adamson

doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.121213

Longitudinal trajectories of depression across adolescence, emerging adulthood and adulthood: Findings from the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (add health) (1994–2008)

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Abstract

Background
The heterogeneity of depression is well documented. Consistent with the Life Course Theory, longitudinal analysis establishing trajectories may demonstrate the stability and variation of depression.
Methods
Data from four waves of the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) were used to investigate depression trajectories. Nine items from the Center for Epidemiological Studies (CESsingle bondD) measured depression of 9421 participants. Trajectories were established using growth mixture modelling (GMM) and multinomial regression was employed to explore the influence of gender and ethnicity.
Results
Five distinct and unique trajectories were established as minimal (66.8%), moderate (19.1%), Emerging Adulthood (EA) trough (7.6%), persistently high (3.3%) and EA peak (3.1%). Being female and non-white increased the probability of being in the elevated trajectories during adolescence.
Conclusion
Three stable and two fluctuating trajectories demonstrate both the predictability and heterogeneity of depression across three distinct developmental stages.

Original language	English
Article number	121213
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Journal of Affective Disorders
Volume	400
Early online date	19 Jan 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2026.121213
Publication status	Published (in print/issue) - 1 May 2026

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Data Availability Statement

Data not available / The data that has been used is confidential and only accessible by contractual agreement with Add Health.

Funding

This work was supported by a Northern Ireland Department for the Economy PhD studentship. The Department for the Economy had no role in the study design, the collection, analysis and interpretation of data, in writing the report and in the decision to submit the article for publication.

Funders	Funder number
Department for the Economy
National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
University of North Carolina
National Institute on Aging	U01 AG071448, U01AG071450

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Longitudinal studies
Depression
Trajectories
Life course theory

Access to Document

10.1016/j.jad.2026.121213

1-s2.0-S0165032726000649-mainFinal published version, 704 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Longitudinal trajectories of depression across adolescence, emerging adulthood and adulthood: Findings from the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (add health) (1994–2008)",

abstract = "Background The heterogeneity of depression is well documented. Consistent with the Life Course Theory, longitudinal analysis establishing trajectories may demonstrate the stability and variation of depression. Methods Data from four waves of the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) were used to investigate depression trajectories. Nine items from the Center for Epidemiological Studies (CESsingle bondD) measured depression of 9421 participants. Trajectories were established using growth mixture modelling (GMM) and multinomial regression was employed to explore the influence of gender and ethnicity. Results Five distinct and unique trajectories were established as minimal (66.8\%), moderate (19.1\%), Emerging Adulthood (EA) trough (7.6\%), persistently high (3.3\%) and EA peak (3.1\%). Being female and non-white increased the probability of being in the elevated trajectories during adolescence. Conclusion Three stable and two fluctuating trajectories demonstrate both the predictability and heterogeneity of depression across three distinct developmental stages.",

keywords = "Longitudinal studies, Depression, Trajectories, Life course theory",

author = "Catriona Ross and Orla McBride and Ellen Henderson and Gary Adamson",

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year = "2026",

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doi = "10.1016/j.jad.2026.121213",

language = "English",

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Longitudinal trajectories of depression across adolescence, emerging adulthood and adulthood: Findings from the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (add health) (1994–2008). / Ross, Catriona ; McBride, Orla ; Henderson, Ellen et al.
In: Journal of Affective Disorders, Vol. 400, 121213, 01.05.2026, p. 1-9.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Longitudinal trajectories of depression across adolescence, emerging adulthood and adulthood: Findings from the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (add health) (1994–2008)

AU - Ross, Catriona

AU - McBride, Orla

AU - Henderson, Ellen

AU - Adamson, Gary

PY - 2026/5/1

Y1 - 2026/5/1

N2 - Background The heterogeneity of depression is well documented. Consistent with the Life Course Theory, longitudinal analysis establishing trajectories may demonstrate the stability and variation of depression. Methods Data from four waves of the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) were used to investigate depression trajectories. Nine items from the Center for Epidemiological Studies (CESsingle bondD) measured depression of 9421 participants. Trajectories were established using growth mixture modelling (GMM) and multinomial regression was employed to explore the influence of gender and ethnicity. Results Five distinct and unique trajectories were established as minimal (66.8%), moderate (19.1%), Emerging Adulthood (EA) trough (7.6%), persistently high (3.3%) and EA peak (3.1%). Being female and non-white increased the probability of being in the elevated trajectories during adolescence. Conclusion Three stable and two fluctuating trajectories demonstrate both the predictability and heterogeneity of depression across three distinct developmental stages.

AB - Background The heterogeneity of depression is well documented. Consistent with the Life Course Theory, longitudinal analysis establishing trajectories may demonstrate the stability and variation of depression. Methods Data from four waves of the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) were used to investigate depression trajectories. Nine items from the Center for Epidemiological Studies (CESsingle bondD) measured depression of 9421 participants. Trajectories were established using growth mixture modelling (GMM) and multinomial regression was employed to explore the influence of gender and ethnicity. Results Five distinct and unique trajectories were established as minimal (66.8%), moderate (19.1%), Emerging Adulthood (EA) trough (7.6%), persistently high (3.3%) and EA peak (3.1%). Being female and non-white increased the probability of being in the elevated trajectories during adolescence. Conclusion Three stable and two fluctuating trajectories demonstrate both the predictability and heterogeneity of depression across three distinct developmental stages.

KW - Longitudinal studies

KW - Depression

KW - Trajectories

KW - Life course theory

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DO - 10.1016/j.jad.2026.121213

M3 - Article

C2 - 41564948

SN - 0165-0327

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SP - 1

EP - 9

JO - Journal of Affective Disorders

JF - Journal of Affective Disorders

M1 - 121213

ER -

Longitudinal trajectories of depression across adolescence, emerging adulthood and adulthood: Findings from the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (add health) (1994–2008)

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Data Availability Statement

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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