Latent growth modelling of refractive error development in white children & young adults

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

Abstract

Aim: Population-based data on children’s eye growth are rare. This prospective study modelled the developmental trajectory of spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and axial length (AL) in a white population to identify the number of homogenous classes present.
Materials and Methods: Stratified random cluster sampling recruited white children aged 6-7 years (n=392) and 12-13 years (n=661) (NICER Study). Cycloplegic autorefraction and AL were assessed at baseline and prospectively at 3, 6 and 9 year intervals. Latent growth modelling of SER and AL were conducted using Mplus v7.4. The fit of six models (one to six-class) were used to determine the best fit model for each cohort. Predictive variables for emergent classes were explored for the younger cohort (Odds ratios OR, confidence intervals CI).
Results: For the younger cohort (6-16 years): a four-class solution was the best fit for SER labelled as ‘Persistent Emmetropes-PEMM’, ‘Persistent Moderate Hyperopes-PMHYP’, ‘Persistent High Hyperopes-PHHYP’ and ‘Emerging Myopes-EMYO’ and a two-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 1A&B). For the older cohort (12-22 years): a five-class solution was the best fit for SER, labelled as “PHHYP”, “PMHYP”, “PEMM”, “Low Progressing Myopes-LPMYO” and “Moderate Progressing Myopes-MPMYO” and a four-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 2A&B). Those in the EMYO class were significantly more likely to have a longer AL at baseline (OR 2.5, CI 1.05-5.97) and at least one myopic parent (OR 6.28, CI 1.01-38.93). Other variables were not predictive (Gender, socioeconomic status, physical activity, time spent outdoors, time spent doing near work, BMI, breastfed). 
Conclusion: Four classes of refractive development from childhood to teenage years were evident and five classes from teenage years into adulthood. The two-class solution for AL growth in children 6-16 years (compared to four-class for SER) suggests other ocular components, such as lens shape are important determinants of SER alongside AL. Parental history of myopia and longer AL at 6-7 years are risk factors for emergent myopia. These population-based data can be used to identify, at an early stage, white children who may benefit from myopia intervention.

Conference

ConferenceNorthern Ireland Clinical Research Network
Abbreviated titleNICRN
CountryUnited Kingdom
Period15/03/1915/03/19

Fingerprint

Refractive Errors
Young Adult
Myopia
Growth
Population
Mydriatics
Social Class
Lenses
Odds Ratio
Prospective Studies
Confidence Intervals
Exercise

Keywords

  • refractive error
  • myopia
  • progression
  • growth curves
  • latent class analysis

Cite this

McCullough, S., Saunders, K. J., Doyle, L., & Adamson, G. (2019). Latent growth modelling of refractive error development in white children & young adults. Poster session presented at Northern Ireland Clinical Research Network , United Kingdom.
@conference{954728bfb8ef4f0b8fcf072937f46167,
title = "Latent growth modelling of refractive error development in white children & young adults",
abstract = "Aim: Population-based data on children’s eye growth are rare. This prospective study modelled the developmental trajectory of spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and axial length (AL) in a white population to identify the number of homogenous classes present.Materials and Methods: Stratified random cluster sampling recruited white children aged 6-7 years (n=392) and 12-13 years (n=661) (NICER Study). Cycloplegic autorefraction and AL were assessed at baseline and prospectively at 3, 6 and 9 year intervals. Latent growth modelling of SER and AL were conducted using Mplus v7.4. The fit of six models (one to six-class) were used to determine the best fit model for each cohort. Predictive variables for emergent classes were explored for the younger cohort (Odds ratios OR, confidence intervals CI).Results: For the younger cohort (6-16 years): a four-class solution was the best fit for SER labelled as ‘Persistent Emmetropes-PEMM’, ‘Persistent Moderate Hyperopes-PMHYP’, ‘Persistent High Hyperopes-PHHYP’ and ‘Emerging Myopes-EMYO’ and a two-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 1A&B). For the older cohort (12-22 years): a five-class solution was the best fit for SER, labelled as “PHHYP”, “PMHYP”, “PEMM”, “Low Progressing Myopes-LPMYO” and “Moderate Progressing Myopes-MPMYO” and a four-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 2A&B). Those in the EMYO class were significantly more likely to have a longer AL at baseline (OR 2.5, CI 1.05-5.97) and at least one myopic parent (OR 6.28, CI 1.01-38.93). Other variables were not predictive (Gender, socioeconomic status, physical activity, time spent outdoors, time spent doing near work, BMI, breastfed). Conclusion: Four classes of refractive development from childhood to teenage years were evident and five classes from teenage years into adulthood. The two-class solution for AL growth in children 6-16 years (compared to four-class for SER) suggests other ocular components, such as lens shape are important determinants of SER alongside AL. Parental history of myopia and longer AL at 6-7 years are risk factors for emergent myopia. These population-based data can be used to identify, at an early stage, white children who may benefit from myopia intervention.",
keywords = "refractive error, myopia, progression, growth curves, latent class analysis",
author = "Sara McCullough and Saunders, {Kathryn J} and Lesley Doyle and Gary Adamson",
year = "2019",
month = "3",
day = "15",
language = "English",
note = "Northern Ireland Clinical Research Network , NICRN ; Conference date: 15-03-2019 Through 15-03-2019",

}

McCullough, S, Saunders, KJ, Doyle, L & Adamson, G 2019, 'Latent growth modelling of refractive error development in white children & young adults' Northern Ireland Clinical Research Network , United Kingdom, 15/03/19 - 15/03/19, .

Latent growth modelling of refractive error development in white children & young adults. / McCullough, Sara; Saunders, Kathryn J; Doyle, Lesley; Adamson, Gary.

2019. Poster session presented at Northern Ireland Clinical Research Network , United Kingdom.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

TY - CONF

T1 - Latent growth modelling of refractive error development in white children & young adults

AU - McCullough, Sara

AU - Saunders, Kathryn J

AU - Doyle, Lesley

AU - Adamson, Gary

PY - 2019/3/15

Y1 - 2019/3/15

N2 - Aim: Population-based data on children’s eye growth are rare. This prospective study modelled the developmental trajectory of spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and axial length (AL) in a white population to identify the number of homogenous classes present.Materials and Methods: Stratified random cluster sampling recruited white children aged 6-7 years (n=392) and 12-13 years (n=661) (NICER Study). Cycloplegic autorefraction and AL were assessed at baseline and prospectively at 3, 6 and 9 year intervals. Latent growth modelling of SER and AL were conducted using Mplus v7.4. The fit of six models (one to six-class) were used to determine the best fit model for each cohort. Predictive variables for emergent classes were explored for the younger cohort (Odds ratios OR, confidence intervals CI).Results: For the younger cohort (6-16 years): a four-class solution was the best fit for SER labelled as ‘Persistent Emmetropes-PEMM’, ‘Persistent Moderate Hyperopes-PMHYP’, ‘Persistent High Hyperopes-PHHYP’ and ‘Emerging Myopes-EMYO’ and a two-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 1A&B). For the older cohort (12-22 years): a five-class solution was the best fit for SER, labelled as “PHHYP”, “PMHYP”, “PEMM”, “Low Progressing Myopes-LPMYO” and “Moderate Progressing Myopes-MPMYO” and a four-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 2A&B). Those in the EMYO class were significantly more likely to have a longer AL at baseline (OR 2.5, CI 1.05-5.97) and at least one myopic parent (OR 6.28, CI 1.01-38.93). Other variables were not predictive (Gender, socioeconomic status, physical activity, time spent outdoors, time spent doing near work, BMI, breastfed). Conclusion: Four classes of refractive development from childhood to teenage years were evident and five classes from teenage years into adulthood. The two-class solution for AL growth in children 6-16 years (compared to four-class for SER) suggests other ocular components, such as lens shape are important determinants of SER alongside AL. Parental history of myopia and longer AL at 6-7 years are risk factors for emergent myopia. These population-based data can be used to identify, at an early stage, white children who may benefit from myopia intervention.

AB - Aim: Population-based data on children’s eye growth are rare. This prospective study modelled the developmental trajectory of spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and axial length (AL) in a white population to identify the number of homogenous classes present.Materials and Methods: Stratified random cluster sampling recruited white children aged 6-7 years (n=392) and 12-13 years (n=661) (NICER Study). Cycloplegic autorefraction and AL were assessed at baseline and prospectively at 3, 6 and 9 year intervals. Latent growth modelling of SER and AL were conducted using Mplus v7.4. The fit of six models (one to six-class) were used to determine the best fit model for each cohort. Predictive variables for emergent classes were explored for the younger cohort (Odds ratios OR, confidence intervals CI).Results: For the younger cohort (6-16 years): a four-class solution was the best fit for SER labelled as ‘Persistent Emmetropes-PEMM’, ‘Persistent Moderate Hyperopes-PMHYP’, ‘Persistent High Hyperopes-PHHYP’ and ‘Emerging Myopes-EMYO’ and a two-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 1A&B). For the older cohort (12-22 years): a five-class solution was the best fit for SER, labelled as “PHHYP”, “PMHYP”, “PEMM”, “Low Progressing Myopes-LPMYO” and “Moderate Progressing Myopes-MPMYO” and a four-class solution fitted AL best (Fig. 2A&B). Those in the EMYO class were significantly more likely to have a longer AL at baseline (OR 2.5, CI 1.05-5.97) and at least one myopic parent (OR 6.28, CI 1.01-38.93). Other variables were not predictive (Gender, socioeconomic status, physical activity, time spent outdoors, time spent doing near work, BMI, breastfed). Conclusion: Four classes of refractive development from childhood to teenage years were evident and five classes from teenage years into adulthood. The two-class solution for AL growth in children 6-16 years (compared to four-class for SER) suggests other ocular components, such as lens shape are important determinants of SER alongside AL. Parental history of myopia and longer AL at 6-7 years are risk factors for emergent myopia. These population-based data can be used to identify, at an early stage, white children who may benefit from myopia intervention.

KW - refractive error

KW - myopia

KW - progression

KW - growth curves

KW - latent class analysis

M3 - Poster

ER -

McCullough S, Saunders KJ, Doyle L, Adamson G. Latent growth modelling of refractive error development in white children & young adults. 2019. Poster session presented at Northern Ireland Clinical Research Network , United Kingdom.