AbstractPurpose – The world is changing and key change agents include climate change and scarcity of resources. This research paper aims to explore how New Zealand and tourism could address the future and generate appropriate strategic responses.Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing on recent research from the www.tourism2050.com project, this paper describes the circumstances, drivers, economic consequences and key decisions that New Zealand would have to take in order to position itself as an eco paradise. The background to the scenario presumes over-arching behaviours in a co-operative world in which resources are scarce.Findings – The scenario portrays a future of collective individualism, where a high degree of personal freedom exists, but within the constraints of a world in which there is a scarcity of resources. A communitarian ethos drives policy-making, with an emphasis on efficient resource use and waste minimisation. New Zealand is a nation favoured by climate change. Environmental intellectual property is one of the nation’s key resources and in the spirit of achieving a global environmental equilibrium these technologies are shared with the rest of the world. Life is simple. Competitive individualism is equated with excess and resource waste, while cooperation, harmony, and the continuation of a global co-operative psyche are seen as the foundation stones of the continued, relatively comfortable survivalof humanity. Tourism is a luxury and activities are environmentally ethical. Visitors are well off, purposeful, highly respectful and careful to prove their worth.Originality/value – Eco paradise represents the classic tale of a prisoner’s dilemma in which decision-makers and consumers ponder the betterment of humankind against individualism. The scenario concludes with a strategic map of the core decisions which New Zealand’s tourism industry would have to take. The significance of the paper is its portrayal of a possible future to industry leaders, researchers and stakeholders, thereby facilitating decision-making in order to adapt to this future.
|Journal||Journal of Tourism Futures|
|Publication status||Published - 2014|
- Scenario planning
- New Zealand