Future Past of Tourism: Critical Reflection’s on the Rise of Tourism Futures

U McMahon-Beattie,; Ian Yeoman

doi:10.1080/14616688.2023.2270937

Future Past of Tourism: Critical Reflection’s on the Rise of Tourism Futures

U McMahon-Beattie,
, Ian Yeoman

Ulster University Business School

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

398 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Given the presence of societal scale risks such as pandemics, war, climate change and artificial technology, the future of tourism will operate increasingly in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. As such the present course of tourism research is unsustainable. In this paper, the authors draw upon the evolutionary paradigm in futures studies to identify a series of historical turning points in the development of tourism futures research. These include forecasting tourism demand using quantitative methods; the appointment of the world’s first tourism scenario planner; the establishment of the European Tourism Futures Institute; the creation of academic credibility through the Journal of Tourism Futures; the effect of COVID-19 on tourism research; and finally, the accelerator effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on our consciousness and awareness of the future. In conclusion, the authors offer a series of futures turning points identifying the direction of tourism futures, scenario planning and foresight within the realm of tourism research.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-17
Number of pages	17
Journal	Tourism Geographies
Early online date	25 Oct 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2023.2270937
Publication status	Published online - 25 Oct 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Over the next four years, EFTI working with stakeholders within the provenance of Friesland and the Netherlands more broadly undertook a range of scenario projects including The Future of Zoos (Jong, ), The Future of Backpacking (Vaals, ), The Future of Visitor Attractions in the Netherlands (Postma, ) and (Revier, ). The first project, beyond the SSN grant was Notting Hill Carnival Futures 2020 (Postma et al., ) which proved that ETFI could work outside its original remit. Thus, as the grant funding from SNN came to an end in 2014, ETFI reputation was growing and they were asked to undertake an increasingly number of international projects for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC), the European Travel Commission (ETC), European Cities Marketing (ECM, now called City Destinations Alliance), European Association of European Tour Operators (ETOA), and the Travel Foundation (TF). As a result, ETFI was becoming self-financing and sustainable.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Funding

Funding Information: Over the next four years, EFTI working with stakeholders within the provenance of Friesland and the Netherlands more broadly undertook a range of scenario projects including The Future of Zoos (Jong, ), The Future of Backpacking (Vaals, ), The Future of Visitor Attractions in the Netherlands (Postma, ) and (Revier, ). The first project, beyond the SSN grant was Notting Hill Carnival Futures 2020 (Postma et al., ) which proved that ETFI could work outside its original remit. Thus, as the grant funding from SNN came to an end in 2014, ETFI reputation was growing and they were asked to undertake an increasingly number of international projects for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC), the European Travel Commission (ETC), European Cities Marketing (ECM, now called City Destinations Alliance), European Association of European Tour Operators (ETOA), and the Travel Foundation (TF). As a result, ETFI was becoming self-financing and sustainable. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Scenarios
scenario planning
foresight
tourism futures
forecasting
turning points

Access to Document

10.1080/14616688.2023.2270937

The future past of tourismAuthor Accepted Manuscript, 354 KBLicence: CC BY-NC

Cite this

@article{9ca68255376b4de8830c2f42646affef,

title = "Future Past of Tourism: Critical Reflection{\textquoteright}s on the Rise of Tourism Futures",

abstract = "Given the presence of societal scale risks such as pandemics, war, climate change and artificial technology, the future of tourism will operate increasingly in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. As such the present course of tourism research is unsustainable. In this paper, the authors draw upon the evolutionary paradigm in futures studies to identify a series of historical turning points in the development of tourism futures research. These include forecasting tourism demand using quantitative methods; the appointment of the world{\textquoteright}s first tourism scenario planner; the establishment of the European Tourism Futures Institute; the creation of academic credibility through the Journal of Tourism Futures; the effect of COVID-19 on tourism research; and finally, the accelerator effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on our consciousness and awareness of the future. In conclusion, the authors offer a series of futures turning points identifying the direction of tourism futures, scenario planning and foresight within the realm of tourism research.",

keywords = "Scenarios, scenario planning, foresight, tourism futures, forecasting, turning points",

author = "U McMahon-Beattie, and Ian Yeoman",

note = "Funding Information: Over the next four years, EFTI working with stakeholders within the provenance of Friesland and the Netherlands more broadly undertook a range of scenario projects including The Future of Zoos (Jong, ), The Future of Backpacking (Vaals, ), The Future of Visitor Attractions in the Netherlands (Postma, ) and (Revier, ). The first project, beyond the SSN grant was Notting Hill Carnival Futures 2020 (Postma et al., ) which proved that ETFI could work outside its original remit. Thus, as the grant funding from SNN came to an end in 2014, ETFI reputation was growing and they were asked to undertake an increasingly number of international projects for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC), the European Travel Commission (ETC), European Cities Marketing (ECM, now called City Destinations Alliance), European Association of European Tour Operators (ETOA), and the Travel Foundation (TF). As a result, ETFI was becoming self-financing and sustainable. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor \& Francis Group.",

year = "2023",

month = oct,

day = "25",

doi = "10.1080/14616688.2023.2270937",

language = "English",

pages = "1--17",

journal = "Tourism Geographies",

issn = "1461-6688",

publisher = "Routledge",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future Past of Tourism: Critical Reflection’s on the Rise of Tourism Futures

AU - McMahon-Beattie,, U

AU - Yeoman, Ian

N1 - Funding Information: Over the next four years, EFTI working with stakeholders within the provenance of Friesland and the Netherlands more broadly undertook a range of scenario projects including The Future of Zoos (Jong, ), The Future of Backpacking (Vaals, ), The Future of Visitor Attractions in the Netherlands (Postma, ) and (Revier, ). The first project, beyond the SSN grant was Notting Hill Carnival Futures 2020 (Postma et al., ) which proved that ETFI could work outside its original remit. Thus, as the grant funding from SNN came to an end in 2014, ETFI reputation was growing and they were asked to undertake an increasingly number of international projects for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC), the European Travel Commission (ETC), European Cities Marketing (ECM, now called City Destinations Alliance), European Association of European Tour Operators (ETOA), and the Travel Foundation (TF). As a result, ETFI was becoming self-financing and sustainable. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

PY - 2023/10/25

Y1 - 2023/10/25

N2 - Given the presence of societal scale risks such as pandemics, war, climate change and artificial technology, the future of tourism will operate increasingly in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. As such the present course of tourism research is unsustainable. In this paper, the authors draw upon the evolutionary paradigm in futures studies to identify a series of historical turning points in the development of tourism futures research. These include forecasting tourism demand using quantitative methods; the appointment of the world’s first tourism scenario planner; the establishment of the European Tourism Futures Institute; the creation of academic credibility through the Journal of Tourism Futures; the effect of COVID-19 on tourism research; and finally, the accelerator effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on our consciousness and awareness of the future. In conclusion, the authors offer a series of futures turning points identifying the direction of tourism futures, scenario planning and foresight within the realm of tourism research.

AB - Given the presence of societal scale risks such as pandemics, war, climate change and artificial technology, the future of tourism will operate increasingly in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. As such the present course of tourism research is unsustainable. In this paper, the authors draw upon the evolutionary paradigm in futures studies to identify a series of historical turning points in the development of tourism futures research. These include forecasting tourism demand using quantitative methods; the appointment of the world’s first tourism scenario planner; the establishment of the European Tourism Futures Institute; the creation of academic credibility through the Journal of Tourism Futures; the effect of COVID-19 on tourism research; and finally, the accelerator effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on our consciousness and awareness of the future. In conclusion, the authors offer a series of futures turning points identifying the direction of tourism futures, scenario planning and foresight within the realm of tourism research.

KW - Scenarios

KW - scenario planning

KW - foresight

KW - tourism futures

KW - forecasting

KW - turning points

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85174811477

U2 - 10.1080/14616688.2023.2270937

DO - 10.1080/14616688.2023.2270937

M3 - Article

SN - 1461-6688

SP - 1

EP - 17

JO - Tourism Geographies

JF - Tourism Geographies

ER -

Future Past of Tourism: Critical Reflection’s on the Rise of Tourism Futures

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this