Evacuation Models are Running out of Time

P Thompson, D Nilsson, D McGrath, K Boyce

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The representation of crowd movement in existing evacuation models is typically based on data collected in the 1950s to 1980s, i.e., data that are more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, population characteristics have changed dramatically around the world. Reports show that the percentage of elderly and obesity rates have increased significantly and this trend is predicted to continue into the future. Recent research [1–3] illustrates the magnitude by which different age cohorts of a population group can reduce the general speed and flow rates. In addition, well established studies have quantified the impact of body dimensions on speed and flow [4]. However, many existing evacuation models fail to take the changing characteristics of populations into account. This paper aims to review existing knowledge of population demographics and crowd dynamics, derive an indicative flow reduction factor for future populations, and consider the implications for computer models and building design in the future.
LanguageEnglish
Pages251-261
JournalFire Safety Journal
Volume78
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2015

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obesity
Flow rate
flow velocity
trends

Keywords

  • evacuation
  • ageing
  • obesity
  • demographics
  • flows

Cite this

Thompson, P ; Nilsson, D ; McGrath, D ; Boyce, K. / Evacuation Models are Running out of Time. In: Fire Safety Journal. 2015 ; Vol. 78. pp. 251-261.
@article{dbbbf2cb54584b739983fb7f75f3907c,
title = "Evacuation Models are Running out of Time",
abstract = "The representation of crowd movement in existing evacuation models is typically based on data collected in the 1950s to 1980s, i.e., data that are more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, population characteristics have changed dramatically around the world. Reports show that the percentage of elderly and obesity rates have increased significantly and this trend is predicted to continue into the future. Recent research [1–3] illustrates the magnitude by which different age cohorts of a population group can reduce the general speed and flow rates. In addition, well established studies have quantified the impact of body dimensions on speed and flow [4]. However, many existing evacuation models fail to take the changing characteristics of populations into account. This paper aims to review existing knowledge of population demographics and crowd dynamics, derive an indicative flow reduction factor for future populations, and consider the implications for computer models and building design in the future.",
keywords = "evacuation, ageing, obesity, demographics, flows",
author = "P Thompson and D Nilsson and D McGrath and K Boyce",
note = "Reference text: [1] V.V. Kholshchevnikov, D.A. Samoshin, A.P. Parfyonenko, I.R. Belosokhov, Study of children evacuation from pre-school education institutions, Fire Mater. 36 (2012) 349–366. [2] V.V. Kholshchevnikov, D. Samoshin, R. Istratov, The problems of elderly people safe evacuation from senior citizen heath care buildings in case of fire, in: Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium {"}Human Behaviour In Fire{"} 2012, Cambridge, UK, pp. 587–593. [3] V.V. Kholshevnikov, T.J. Shields, K.E. Boyce, D.A. Samoshin, Recent developments in pedestrian flow theory and research in Russia, Fire Saf. J. 43 (2008) 108–118. [4] V.M. Predtechenskii, A. Milinskii, Planning for Foot Traffic in Buildings (translated from the Russian), Stroizdat Publishers, Moscow, 1969, English translation published for the National Bureau of Standards and the National Science Foundation, Amerind Publishing Co., New Delhi, India, 1978. [5] B.D. Hankin, R.A. Wright, Passenger flow in subways, Oper. Res. Q. 9 (1958) 81–88. [6] J.J. Fruin, Pedestrian planning and design, Metropolitan Association of Urban Designers and Environmental Planners Inc., New York, 1971. [7] J. Pauls, Movement of people, in: P.J. DiNenno, C.L. Beyer, R.L.P. Custer, W. D. Walton, J.M.W. Watts, D. Drysdale, J.R. Hall (Eds.), The SFPE, Handbook Of Fire Protection Engineering, 2nd ed., National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, 1996, pp. 3-263–3-285. [8] J. Pauls, J. Fruin, J. Zupan J, Minimum stair width for evacuation, overtaking movement and counterflow, Technical bases and suggestions for the past, present and future, in: Waldau Gatterman, Knoflacher Schreckenberg (Eds.), Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 2005, pp. 57–69. [9] United Nations, “World Population Aging 2013”, United Nations Department of 260 P. Thompson et al. / Fire Safety Journal 78 (2015) 251–261 Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, 2013, accessed at: ⟨http:// www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/World PopulationAgeing2013.pdf⟩. [10] United Nations, “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Key findings and Advance Tables”, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Populations Division, United Nations, New York, 2012. [11] OECD, “Obesity Update 2012”, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2012, accessed at ⟨http://www.oecd.org/health/49716427.pdf⟩. [12] E.D. Kuligowski, R.D. Peacock, P.A. Reneke, E. Wiess, C.R. Hagwood, K.J. Overholt, R.P. Elkin, J.D. Averill, E. Ronchi, B.L. Hoskins, M. Spearpoint, “Movement on Stairs During Building Evacuations”, NIST Technical Note 1839, National Institute of Standards and Technology, USA, 2015, available online at: http:// dx.doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.1839. [13] J.L. Pauls, Building evacuation: research findings and recommendations, in: D. Cantor (Ed.), Fires and Human Behaviour, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1980, pp. 251–275. [14] R.D. Peacock, B.L. Hoskins, E.D. Kuligowski, Overall and local movement speeds during fire drill evacuations in buildings up to 31 stories, Saf. Sci. 50 (8) (2012) 1655–1664. [15] K. Ando, H. Ota, T. Oki T, Forecasting the flow of people, Railw. Res. Rev. 45 (1988) 8–14 (Japanese). [16] K.E. Boyce, T.J. Shields, G.W.H. Silcock, Towards the characterization of building occupancies for fire safety engineering: capabilities of disabled people moving horizontally and on an incline, Fire Technol. 35 (1) (1999) 51–67. [17] Home Office/Scottish Home and Health Department, “Guide to Safety at Sports Grounds (Football)” (also known as the ‘Green Guide’), third ed., HMSO, UK, 1985, ISBN 011 3407610. [18] H.E. Nelson, H.A. MacLennan, Emergency movement, in: P.J. DiNenno, et al., (Eds.), The SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 2nd ed., National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, 1996, pp. 3-286–3-295. [19] British Standards Institution, “PD 7974-6:2004, The application of fire safety engineering principles to fire safety design of buildings. Human factors. Life safety strategies. Occupant Evacuation, behaviour and condition (Sub-system 6)”, British Standards Institution, London, UK, 2004. [20] Home Office, “Report by SCICON Ltd. on Safety in Football Stadia: A Method of Assessment, Lord Justice Taylor's Final report, Technical Working Part on the Guide to Safety at Sports Grounds”, Home Office, UK, 1989. [21] DCLG, “The Building Regulations 2000 Fire Safety Approved Document B Volume 2 Buildings Other than Dwelling Houses, 2006 Edition”, Department of Communities and Local Government, 2007 (amended). [22] NFPA 101, Code for Safety to Life from Fire in Buildings and Structures, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Washington DC, 2012. [23] International Maritime Organisation, Guidelines For Evacuation Analysis For New and Existing Passenger Ships, MSC.1/Circ.1238, London, October 2007. [24] Cornell University, “2012 Disability Status Report”, Employment and Disability Institute, 64 pp. found at: ⟨http://www.disabilitystatistics.org/StatusReports/ 2012-PDF/2012-StatusReport_US.pdf⟩, 2012. [25] S.J. Older, Movement of pedestrians on footways in shopping streets, Traffic Eng. Control 10 (1968) 160–163. [26] A. Polus, J.L. Schofer, A. Ushpiz, Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service, J. Transp. Eng. 109 (1983) 46–47. [27] J.L. Pauls, in: D. Canter (Ed.), Fires and Human Behaviour, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., London, 1980, pp. 227–275 , Chapters 13 and 14. [28] OECD, Society at a Glance: OECD Social Indicators, OECD Publishing, France, 2006. [29] J.A. Martin, B.E. Hamilton, M.J.K. Osterman, S.C. Curtin, M.A. Matthews, T.J. Matthews, Births: final data for 2012, National Vital Statistics Reports volume 62, number 9, US Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, 2013. [30] Elizabeth Arias, United States Life Tables, 2006, National Vital Statistics Reports, vol. 58, number 21, 2010, accessed at ⟨http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_21.pdf⟩. [31] UK Parliament Research publications, Have kids, settle down: marital and maternal age since 1938, 2013, accessed at ⟨http://www.parliament.uk/busi ness/publications/research/olympic-britain/population/have-kids-settledown/⟩. [32] European Commission, “2015 Ageing report: economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060)”, 2015, ISBN 978-92-79- 44747-1. [33] N.D. Reeves, M. Spanjaard, A.A. Mohagheghi, V. Baltzopoulos, C.N. Maganaris, The demands of stair descent relative to maximum capacities in elderly and young adults, J. Electromyogr. Kinesiol. 18 (2008) 218–227. [34] H.G. Kang, J.B. Dingwell, Effects of walking speed, strength and range of motion on gait stability in healthy old adults, J. Biomech. 41 (2008) 1567–1573. [35] T. Fujiyama, T. Tyler, Free walking speeds on stairs: effects of stair gradients and obesity of pedestrians, in: Peacock, et al., (Eds.), Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media, 2011, pp. 95–105. [36] B.B.C. News, Fat patients 'prompts ambulance fleet revamp', in BBC News/ Health 2011, online at: ⟨http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12287880⟩. [37] World Health Organization, Obesity and Overweight, WHO Fact sheet N°311, 2015, available online at: ⟨http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs311/ en/⟩. [38] Cheryl D. Fryar, Margaret D. Carroll, and Cynthia L. Ogden, Prevalence of Obesity Among Children and Adolescents: United States, trends 1963–1965 through 2009–2010, NCHS Health E-stat, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD. accessed at: ⟨http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity_ child_09_10/obesity_child_09_10.htm⟩. [39] J. Levy, L.M. Segal, K. Thomas, R. Laurent St, A. Lang, J. Rayburn, F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America's Future 2013, Trust for America’s Health/ Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, USA, 2013. [40] M. Spearpoint, H.A. MacLennan, The effect of an ageing and less fit population on the ability of people to egress buildings, Saf. Sci. 50 (2012) 1675–1684. [41] M. Hulens, G. Vansant, A.L. Claessens, R. Lysens, E. Muls, Predictors of 6-minute walk test results in lean, obese and morbidly obese women, Scand. J. Med. Sci. Sports 13 (2003) 98–105. [42] X.Z. He, D.W. Baker, Body mass index, physical activity, and the risk of decline in overall health and physical functioning in late middle age, Am. J. Public Health 94 (9) (2004) 1567–1573. [43] E.D. Kuligowski, R.D. Peacock, A Review of Building Evacuation Models, NIST Technical Note 1471, US Government Printing Office, Washington (2005), p. 156. [44] S. Gwynne, E.R. Galea, A Review of Methodologies and Critical Appraisal of Computer Models Used in the Simulation of Evacuation from the Built Environment, Society of Fire Protection Engineers, Bethesda, Maryland, USA, 2004. [45] F. Stahl, Final Report on the 'BFIRES/Version 1' Computer Simulation of Emergency Egress Behaviour During Fires: Calibration and Analysis, NBSIR 79- 1713, US Department of Commerce, NBS, Center for Building Technology, Washington DC, March 1979. [46] T.M. Kisko, R.L. Francis, EVACNET{\th}: a computer program to determine optimal building evacuation plans, Fire Saf. J. 9 (2) (1985) 211–220. [47] R.F. Fahy, EXIT 89: An evacuation model for high-rise buildings, in: Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium of Fire Safety Science, University of Edinburgh, July 8–12 , Elsevier Science Publishers, London. 1991, pp. 815– 823. [48] N. Ketchell, S. Cole, “The EGRESS code for human movement and behaviour in emergency evacuations”, in: R.A. Smith, J. Dickie (Eds.), Engineering for Crowd Safety, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993, ISBN 0 444 899200. [49] E.R. Galea, J.M. Perez Galparsoro, J. Pearce, A brief description of the EXODUS evacuation model, in: Proceedings of the18th International Conference on Fire Safety, San Francisco, USA, vol.18, 1993, pp.149–162. [50] Mott MacDonald, STEPS Simulation of Transient Evacuation and Pedestrian Movements User Manual, Mott McDonald, 2003 (unpublished work). [51] H. Klupfel, T. Meyer-Konig, Characteristics of the PedGo Software for Crowd Movement and Egress Simulation, in: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference in Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics (PED), University of Greenwich London, UK, 2003, pp. 331–340. [52] P.A. Thompson, E.W. Marchant, A computer model for the evacuation of large building populations, Fire Saf. J. 24 (1985) 131–148. [54] Legion International: accessed at: ⟨http://www.legion.com/legion-software⟩. (on-line). [55] P.A. Thompson, Developing New Techniques for Modelling Crowd Movement, Ph.D., Department of Building and Environmental Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, 1995. [56] J. Cappuccio, Pathfinder: a computer-based timed egress simulation, Fire Prot. Eng. 8 (2000) 11–12. [57] TraffGo “Product Information - PedGo Editor” Pamphlet, 2005. [58] AEC Magazine, “Oasys MassMotion”, 5 July 2011, accessed at: ⟨http://aecmag. com/software-mainmenu-32/445-oasys-massmotion⟩. [59] T. Korhonen, S. Hostikka, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation: FDS{\th}Evac Technical Reference and User's Guide, VTT, Finland, 2009, ISBN 978-951-38- 7180-2. [60] K. Togawa, Study of Fire Escapes Basing on the Observation of Multitude Currents, Report no. 14, Building Research Institute, Tokyo, 1955. [61] J.L. Pauls, in: D. Canter (Ed.), Fires and Human Behaviour, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London, 1980, pp. 227–275 , Chapters 13 and 14. [62] P. Thompson, H. Lindstrom, P.A. Olsson, S. Thompson, “Simulex: analysis and changes for IMO compliance”, in: Proceedings of the Second International Conference in Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics (PED), University of Greenwich, London, 2003. [63] D.A. Purser, Toxicity assessment of combustion products, in: P.J. DiNenno, et al., (Eds.), SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 3rd ed.,National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, 2002, pp. 2-83–2-171.",
year = "2015",
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language = "English",
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pages = "251--261",
journal = "Fire Safety Journal",
issn = "0379-7112",
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}

Evacuation Models are Running out of Time. / Thompson, P; Nilsson, D; McGrath, D; Boyce, K.

In: Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 78, 11.2015, p. 251-261.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Evacuation Models are Running out of Time

AU - Thompson, P

AU - Nilsson, D

AU - McGrath, D

AU - Boyce, K

N1 - Reference text: [1] V.V. Kholshchevnikov, D.A. Samoshin, A.P. Parfyonenko, I.R. Belosokhov, Study of children evacuation from pre-school education institutions, Fire Mater. 36 (2012) 349–366. [2] V.V. Kholshchevnikov, D. Samoshin, R. Istratov, The problems of elderly people safe evacuation from senior citizen heath care buildings in case of fire, in: Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium "Human Behaviour In Fire" 2012, Cambridge, UK, pp. 587–593. [3] V.V. Kholshevnikov, T.J. Shields, K.E. Boyce, D.A. Samoshin, Recent developments in pedestrian flow theory and research in Russia, Fire Saf. J. 43 (2008) 108–118. [4] V.M. Predtechenskii, A. Milinskii, Planning for Foot Traffic in Buildings (translated from the Russian), Stroizdat Publishers, Moscow, 1969, English translation published for the National Bureau of Standards and the National Science Foundation, Amerind Publishing Co., New Delhi, India, 1978. [5] B.D. Hankin, R.A. Wright, Passenger flow in subways, Oper. Res. Q. 9 (1958) 81–88. [6] J.J. Fruin, Pedestrian planning and design, Metropolitan Association of Urban Designers and Environmental Planners Inc., New York, 1971. [7] J. Pauls, Movement of people, in: P.J. DiNenno, C.L. Beyer, R.L.P. Custer, W. D. Walton, J.M.W. Watts, D. Drysdale, J.R. Hall (Eds.), The SFPE, Handbook Of Fire Protection Engineering, 2nd ed., National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, 1996, pp. 3-263–3-285. [8] J. Pauls, J. Fruin, J. Zupan J, Minimum stair width for evacuation, overtaking movement and counterflow, Technical bases and suggestions for the past, present and future, in: Waldau Gatterman, Knoflacher Schreckenberg (Eds.), Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 2005, pp. 57–69. [9] United Nations, “World Population Aging 2013”, United Nations Department of 260 P. Thompson et al. / Fire Safety Journal 78 (2015) 251–261 Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, 2013, accessed at: ⟨http:// www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/World PopulationAgeing2013.pdf⟩. [10] United Nations, “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Key findings and Advance Tables”, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Populations Division, United Nations, New York, 2012. [11] OECD, “Obesity Update 2012”, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2012, accessed at ⟨http://www.oecd.org/health/49716427.pdf⟩. [12] E.D. Kuligowski, R.D. Peacock, P.A. Reneke, E. Wiess, C.R. Hagwood, K.J. Overholt, R.P. Elkin, J.D. Averill, E. Ronchi, B.L. Hoskins, M. Spearpoint, “Movement on Stairs During Building Evacuations”, NIST Technical Note 1839, National Institute of Standards and Technology, USA, 2015, available online at: http:// dx.doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.1839. [13] J.L. Pauls, Building evacuation: research findings and recommendations, in: D. Cantor (Ed.), Fires and Human Behaviour, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1980, pp. 251–275. [14] R.D. Peacock, B.L. Hoskins, E.D. Kuligowski, Overall and local movement speeds during fire drill evacuations in buildings up to 31 stories, Saf. Sci. 50 (8) (2012) 1655–1664. [15] K. Ando, H. Ota, T. Oki T, Forecasting the flow of people, Railw. Res. Rev. 45 (1988) 8–14 (Japanese). [16] K.E. Boyce, T.J. Shields, G.W.H. Silcock, Towards the characterization of building occupancies for fire safety engineering: capabilities of disabled people moving horizontally and on an incline, Fire Technol. 35 (1) (1999) 51–67. [17] Home Office/Scottish Home and Health Department, “Guide to Safety at Sports Grounds (Football)” (also known as the ‘Green Guide’), third ed., HMSO, UK, 1985, ISBN 011 3407610. [18] H.E. Nelson, H.A. MacLennan, Emergency movement, in: P.J. DiNenno, et al., (Eds.), The SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 2nd ed., National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, 1996, pp. 3-286–3-295. [19] British Standards Institution, “PD 7974-6:2004, The application of fire safety engineering principles to fire safety design of buildings. Human factors. Life safety strategies. Occupant Evacuation, behaviour and condition (Sub-system 6)”, British Standards Institution, London, UK, 2004. [20] Home Office, “Report by SCICON Ltd. on Safety in Football Stadia: A Method of Assessment, Lord Justice Taylor's Final report, Technical Working Part on the Guide to Safety at Sports Grounds”, Home Office, UK, 1989. [21] DCLG, “The Building Regulations 2000 Fire Safety Approved Document B Volume 2 Buildings Other than Dwelling Houses, 2006 Edition”, Department of Communities and Local Government, 2007 (amended). [22] NFPA 101, Code for Safety to Life from Fire in Buildings and Structures, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Washington DC, 2012. [23] International Maritime Organisation, Guidelines For Evacuation Analysis For New and Existing Passenger Ships, MSC.1/Circ.1238, London, October 2007. [24] Cornell University, “2012 Disability Status Report”, Employment and Disability Institute, 64 pp. found at: ⟨http://www.disabilitystatistics.org/StatusReports/ 2012-PDF/2012-StatusReport_US.pdf⟩, 2012. [25] S.J. Older, Movement of pedestrians on footways in shopping streets, Traffic Eng. Control 10 (1968) 160–163. [26] A. Polus, J.L. Schofer, A. Ushpiz, Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service, J. Transp. Eng. 109 (1983) 46–47. [27] J.L. Pauls, in: D. Canter (Ed.), Fires and Human Behaviour, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., London, 1980, pp. 227–275 , Chapters 13 and 14. [28] OECD, Society at a Glance: OECD Social Indicators, OECD Publishing, France, 2006. [29] J.A. Martin, B.E. Hamilton, M.J.K. Osterman, S.C. Curtin, M.A. Matthews, T.J. Matthews, Births: final data for 2012, National Vital Statistics Reports volume 62, number 9, US Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, 2013. [30] Elizabeth Arias, United States Life Tables, 2006, National Vital Statistics Reports, vol. 58, number 21, 2010, accessed at ⟨http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_21.pdf⟩. [31] UK Parliament Research publications, Have kids, settle down: marital and maternal age since 1938, 2013, accessed at ⟨http://www.parliament.uk/busi ness/publications/research/olympic-britain/population/have-kids-settledown/⟩. [32] European Commission, “2015 Ageing report: economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060)”, 2015, ISBN 978-92-79- 44747-1. [33] N.D. Reeves, M. Spanjaard, A.A. Mohagheghi, V. Baltzopoulos, C.N. Maganaris, The demands of stair descent relative to maximum capacities in elderly and young adults, J. Electromyogr. Kinesiol. 18 (2008) 218–227. [34] H.G. Kang, J.B. Dingwell, Effects of walking speed, strength and range of motion on gait stability in healthy old adults, J. Biomech. 41 (2008) 1567–1573. [35] T. Fujiyama, T. Tyler, Free walking speeds on stairs: effects of stair gradients and obesity of pedestrians, in: Peacock, et al., (Eds.), Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media, 2011, pp. 95–105. [36] B.B.C. News, Fat patients 'prompts ambulance fleet revamp', in BBC News/ Health 2011, online at: ⟨http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12287880⟩. [37] World Health Organization, Obesity and Overweight, WHO Fact sheet N°311, 2015, available online at: ⟨http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs311/ en/⟩. [38] Cheryl D. Fryar, Margaret D. Carroll, and Cynthia L. Ogden, Prevalence of Obesity Among Children and Adolescents: United States, trends 1963–1965 through 2009–2010, NCHS Health E-stat, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD. accessed at: ⟨http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity_ child_09_10/obesity_child_09_10.htm⟩. [39] J. Levy, L.M. Segal, K. Thomas, R. Laurent St, A. Lang, J. Rayburn, F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America's Future 2013, Trust for America’s Health/ Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, USA, 2013. [40] M. Spearpoint, H.A. MacLennan, The effect of an ageing and less fit population on the ability of people to egress buildings, Saf. Sci. 50 (2012) 1675–1684. [41] M. Hulens, G. Vansant, A.L. Claessens, R. Lysens, E. Muls, Predictors of 6-minute walk test results in lean, obese and morbidly obese women, Scand. J. Med. Sci. Sports 13 (2003) 98–105. [42] X.Z. He, D.W. Baker, Body mass index, physical activity, and the risk of decline in overall health and physical functioning in late middle age, Am. J. Public Health 94 (9) (2004) 1567–1573. [43] E.D. Kuligowski, R.D. Peacock, A Review of Building Evacuation Models, NIST Technical Note 1471, US Government Printing Office, Washington (2005), p. 156. [44] S. Gwynne, E.R. Galea, A Review of Methodologies and Critical Appraisal of Computer Models Used in the Simulation of Evacuation from the Built Environment, Society of Fire Protection Engineers, Bethesda, Maryland, USA, 2004. [45] F. Stahl, Final Report on the 'BFIRES/Version 1' Computer Simulation of Emergency Egress Behaviour During Fires: Calibration and Analysis, NBSIR 79- 1713, US Department of Commerce, NBS, Center for Building Technology, Washington DC, March 1979. [46] T.M. Kisko, R.L. Francis, EVACNETþ: a computer program to determine optimal building evacuation plans, Fire Saf. J. 9 (2) (1985) 211–220. [47] R.F. Fahy, EXIT 89: An evacuation model for high-rise buildings, in: Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium of Fire Safety Science, University of Edinburgh, July 8–12 , Elsevier Science Publishers, London. 1991, pp. 815– 823. [48] N. Ketchell, S. Cole, “The EGRESS code for human movement and behaviour in emergency evacuations”, in: R.A. Smith, J. Dickie (Eds.), Engineering for Crowd Safety, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993, ISBN 0 444 899200. [49] E.R. Galea, J.M. Perez Galparsoro, J. Pearce, A brief description of the EXODUS evacuation model, in: Proceedings of the18th International Conference on Fire Safety, San Francisco, USA, vol.18, 1993, pp.149–162. [50] Mott MacDonald, STEPS Simulation of Transient Evacuation and Pedestrian Movements User Manual, Mott McDonald, 2003 (unpublished work). [51] H. Klupfel, T. Meyer-Konig, Characteristics of the PedGo Software for Crowd Movement and Egress Simulation, in: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference in Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics (PED), University of Greenwich London, UK, 2003, pp. 331–340. [52] P.A. Thompson, E.W. Marchant, A computer model for the evacuation of large building populations, Fire Saf. J. 24 (1985) 131–148. [54] Legion International: accessed at: ⟨http://www.legion.com/legion-software⟩. (on-line). [55] P.A. Thompson, Developing New Techniques for Modelling Crowd Movement, Ph.D., Department of Building and Environmental Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, 1995. [56] J. Cappuccio, Pathfinder: a computer-based timed egress simulation, Fire Prot. Eng. 8 (2000) 11–12. [57] TraffGo “Product Information - PedGo Editor” Pamphlet, 2005. [58] AEC Magazine, “Oasys MassMotion”, 5 July 2011, accessed at: ⟨http://aecmag. com/software-mainmenu-32/445-oasys-massmotion⟩. [59] T. Korhonen, S. Hostikka, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation: FDSþEvac Technical Reference and User's Guide, VTT, Finland, 2009, ISBN 978-951-38- 7180-2. [60] K. Togawa, Study of Fire Escapes Basing on the Observation of Multitude Currents, Report no. 14, Building Research Institute, Tokyo, 1955. [61] J.L. Pauls, in: D. Canter (Ed.), Fires and Human Behaviour, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London, 1980, pp. 227–275 , Chapters 13 and 14. [62] P. Thompson, H. Lindstrom, P.A. Olsson, S. Thompson, “Simulex: analysis and changes for IMO compliance”, in: Proceedings of the Second International Conference in Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics (PED), University of Greenwich, London, 2003. [63] D.A. Purser, Toxicity assessment of combustion products, in: P.J. DiNenno, et al., (Eds.), SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 3rd ed.,National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, 2002, pp. 2-83–2-171.

PY - 2015/11

Y1 - 2015/11

N2 - The representation of crowd movement in existing evacuation models is typically based on data collected in the 1950s to 1980s, i.e., data that are more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, population characteristics have changed dramatically around the world. Reports show that the percentage of elderly and obesity rates have increased significantly and this trend is predicted to continue into the future. Recent research [1–3] illustrates the magnitude by which different age cohorts of a population group can reduce the general speed and flow rates. In addition, well established studies have quantified the impact of body dimensions on speed and flow [4]. However, many existing evacuation models fail to take the changing characteristics of populations into account. This paper aims to review existing knowledge of population demographics and crowd dynamics, derive an indicative flow reduction factor for future populations, and consider the implications for computer models and building design in the future.

AB - The representation of crowd movement in existing evacuation models is typically based on data collected in the 1950s to 1980s, i.e., data that are more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, population characteristics have changed dramatically around the world. Reports show that the percentage of elderly and obesity rates have increased significantly and this trend is predicted to continue into the future. Recent research [1–3] illustrates the magnitude by which different age cohorts of a population group can reduce the general speed and flow rates. In addition, well established studies have quantified the impact of body dimensions on speed and flow [4]. However, many existing evacuation models fail to take the changing characteristics of populations into account. This paper aims to review existing knowledge of population demographics and crowd dynamics, derive an indicative flow reduction factor for future populations, and consider the implications for computer models and building design in the future.

KW - evacuation

KW - ageing

KW - obesity

KW - demographics

KW - flows

U2 - 10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004

DO - 10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004

M3 - Article

VL - 78

SP - 251

EP - 261

JO - Fire Safety Journal

T2 - Fire Safety Journal

JF - Fire Safety Journal

SN - 0379-7112

ER -