Estimating the costs for a group of geriatric patients using the Coxian phase-type distribution

Adele H Marshall, Shaw Barry, SI McClean

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The length of stay in hospital of geriatric patients may be modelled using the Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper examines previous methods which have been used to model health-care costs and presents a new methodology to estimate the costs for a cohort of patients for their duration of stay in hospital, assuming there are no further admissions. The model, applied to 1392 patients admitted into the geriatric ward of a local hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2002 and 2003, should be beneficial to hospital managers, as future decisions and policy changes could be tested on the model to investigate their influence on costs before the decisions were carried out on a real ward.
LanguageEnglish
Pages2716-2729
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Volume26
Issue number13
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2007

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Phase-type distribution
Costs
Northern Ireland
Admission
Policy change
Cohort
Managers
Methodology
Length of stay
Health care costs

Cite this

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Estimating the costs for a group of geriatric patients using the Coxian phase-type distribution. / Marshall, Adele H; Barry, Shaw; McClean, SI.

In: Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 26, No. 13, 01.06.2007, p. 2716-2729.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Barry, Shaw

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AB - The length of stay in hospital of geriatric patients may be modelled using the Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper examines previous methods which have been used to model health-care costs and presents a new methodology to estimate the costs for a cohort of patients for their duration of stay in hospital, assuming there are no further admissions. The model, applied to 1392 patients admitted into the geriatric ward of a local hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2002 and 2003, should be beneficial to hospital managers, as future decisions and policy changes could be tested on the model to investigate their influence on costs before the decisions were carried out on a real ward.

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