Distributed energy balance modeling of South Cascade Glacier, Washington and assessment of model uncertainty

Faron S. Anslow, Steven Hostetler, William R. Bidlake, Peter U. Clark

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    42 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We have developed a physically based, distributed surface energy balance model to simulate glacier mass balance under meteorological and climatological forcing. Here we apply the model to estimate summer ablation on South Cascade Glacier, Washington, for the 2004 and 2005 mass balance seasons. To arrive at optimal mass balance simulations, we investigate and quantify model uncertainty associated with selecting from a range of physical parameter values that are not commonly measured in glaciological mass balance field studies. We optimize the performance of the model by varying values for atmospheric transmissivity, the albedo of surrounding topography, precipitation-elevation lapse rate, surface roughness for turbulent exchange of momentum, and snow albedo aging coefficient. Of these the snow aging parameter and precipitation lapse rates have the greatest influence on the modeled ablation. We examined model sensitivity to varying parameters by performing an additional 103 realizations with parameters randomly chosen over a ±5% range centered about the optimum values. The best fit suite of model parameters yielded a net balance of −1.69 ± 0.38 m water equivalent (WE) for the 2004 water year and −2.10 ± 0.30 m WE up to 11 September 2005. The 2004 result is within 3% of the measured value. These simulations account for 91% and 93% of the variance in measured ablation for the respective years.
    LanguageEnglish
    PagesF02019
    JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
    Volume113
    Issue numberF2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 31 May 2008

    Fingerprint

    energy balance
    glacier
    ablation
    modeling
    mass balance
    albedo
    snow
    glacier mass balance
    transmissivity
    surface energy
    surface roughness
    water
    simulation
    momentum
    parameter
    topography
    summer
    rate

    Keywords

    • glaciology
    • modeling
    • climate

    Cite this

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    title = "Distributed energy balance modeling of South Cascade Glacier, Washington and assessment of model uncertainty",
    abstract = "We have developed a physically based, distributed surface energy balance model to simulate glacier mass balance under meteorological and climatological forcing. Here we apply the model to estimate summer ablation on South Cascade Glacier, Washington, for the 2004 and 2005 mass balance seasons. To arrive at optimal mass balance simulations, we investigate and quantify model uncertainty associated with selecting from a range of physical parameter values that are not commonly measured in glaciological mass balance field studies. We optimize the performance of the model by varying values for atmospheric transmissivity, the albedo of surrounding topography, precipitation-elevation lapse rate, surface roughness for turbulent exchange of momentum, and snow albedo aging coefficient. Of these the snow aging parameter and precipitation lapse rates have the greatest influence on the modeled ablation. We examined model sensitivity to varying parameters by performing an additional 103 realizations with parameters randomly chosen over a ±5{\%} range centered about the optimum values. The best fit suite of model parameters yielded a net balance of −1.69 ± 0.38 m water equivalent (WE) for the 2004 water year and −2.10 ± 0.30 m WE up to 11 September 2005. The 2004 result is within 3{\%} of the measured value. These simulations account for 91{\%} and 93{\%} of the variance in measured ablation for the respective years.",
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    Distributed energy balance modeling of South Cascade Glacier, Washington and assessment of model uncertainty. / Anslow, Faron S.; Hostetler, Steven; Bidlake, William R.; Clark, Peter U.

    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, Vol. 113, No. F2, 31.05.2008, p. F02019.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

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    AU - Hostetler, Steven

    AU - Bidlake, William R.

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    PY - 2008/5/31

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