Development of explainable AI-based predictive models for bubbling fluidised bed gasification process

Daya Shankar Pandey, Haider Raza, Saugat Bhattacharyya

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)
21 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In this study, seven different types of regression-based predictive modelling techniques are used to predict the product gas composition (H 2, CO, CO 2, CH 4) and gas yield (GY) during the gasification of biomass in a fluidised bed reactor. The performance of different regression-based models is compared with the gradient boosting model (GB) to show the relative merits and demerits of the technique. Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-based explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method was utilised to explain individual predictions. This study demonstrates that the prediction performance of the GB algorithm was the best among other regression-based models i.e. Linear Regression (LR), Multilayer perception (MLP), Ridge Regression (RR), Least-angle regression (LARS), Random Forest (RF) and Bagging (BAG). It was found that at learning rate (lr) 0.01 and number of boosting stages (est) 1000 yielded the best result with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.0597 for all outputs. The outcome of this study indicates that XAI-based methodology can be used as a viable alternative modelling paradigm in predicting the performance of a fluidised bed gasifier for an informed decision-making process.

Original languageEnglish
Article number128971
Number of pages9
JournalFuel
Volume351
Early online date14 Jun 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished (in print/issue) - 1 Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
H.R. was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded Business and Local Government Data Research Centre under Grant ES/S007156/1 .

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s)

Keywords

  • Bubbling fluidised bed
  • Decision tree regression
  • Gasification
  • Gradient boosting
  • Machine learning

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