Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper,

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

VisitScotland is the national tourism organisation for Scotland, primarily responsible for marketing Scotland as a destination. The agency is also the Scottish Executive's (Government) principal adviser on policy matters relating to tourism and has the ambition to be the best national tourism organisation in the world. In order to reach this goal, it is committed to futures thinking, in particular using scenario planning in order to frame this thinking. This paper describes how VisitScotland designed a scenario planning process based upon three clusters: A scenario planning group, environmental scanning; and a forecasting model/economic analysis.
LanguageEnglish
Pages273-285
JournalTourism and Hospitality Research
Volume5
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005

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Scenario planning
Tourism
Planning process
Scotland
Environmental scanning
Destination
Economic analysis
Marketing
Government

Cite this

@article{c46afab9539340c49a5fec165d0c10a5,
title = "Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper,",
abstract = "VisitScotland is the national tourism organisation for Scotland, primarily responsible for marketing Scotland as a destination. The agency is also the Scottish Executive's (Government) principal adviser on policy matters relating to tourism and has the ambition to be the best national tourism organisation in the world. In order to reach this goal, it is committed to futures thinking, in particular using scenario planning in order to frame this thinking. This paper describes how VisitScotland designed a scenario planning process based upon three clusters: A scenario planning group, environmental scanning; and a forecasting model/economic analysis.",
author = "I Yeoman and U McMahon-Beattie",
note = "Reference text: Baral, A., Baral, S. and Morgan, N. (2003) ‘Marketing Nepal in an uncertain climate: Confronting perceptions of risk and insecurity’, Journal of Vacation Marketing, 10, 2, 186–192. Bierman, D. (2003) ‘Restoring Tourism Destinations in Crisis: A Strategic Marketing Approach’, CABI Publishing, Oxford. Blake, A., Eugenio-Martin, J.L., Gooroochurn, N., Hay, B., Lennon, J., Sugiyarto, G., Sinclair, M.T. and Yeoman, I. (2004) ‘Tourism in Scotland: The Moffat Model for tourism forecasting and policy in complex situations’, Tourism: State of the Art Conference, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, June. Blake, A. and Sinclair, M.T. (2003) ‘Tourism crisis management: US responses to September 11’, Annals of Tourism, 30, 4, 813– 832. Brightman, J. (2004) CAFE´ Users Guide Version 1.2. Details available at www.banxia. com/deexplore/cafe´.com Brown, M. E. (2003) ‘Grave New World: Security Challenges in the 21st Ccentury’, George Washington Press, Washington. De Geus, A. (1988) ‘Planning as learning’, Harvard Business Review, 66, 2, 70–74 Dodds, R. and Hocking, A. (1994) ‘Solving messy problems: A guide to problem structuring techniques’, Report Ni. IC 93-075, Shell International Petroleum Maatschappij BV, Hague. Durie, A. J. (2002) ‘Scotland for the Holidays. Tourism in Scotland c1780–1939’, Tuckwell Press, East Linton. Eden, C. and Ackermann, F. (1998) ‘Journey Making’, Sage, London. Future Foundation (2004) ‘FutureScoping’, London. Galt, M., Chicoine-Piper, G., Chicoine-Piper, N. and Hodgson, A. (1997) ‘IDON Scenario Thinking: How to Navigate the Uncertainties of Unknown Futures’, IDON Thinking Resources, Pitlochry. Glaesser, D. (2005) ‘Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry’, Elsevier, Oxford. Hay, B. and Yeoman, I. (2004) ‘Our Ambitions for Scottish Tourism’, Tourism: State of the Art Conference Proceedings, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, June. Hiejden, K., Van Der. Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G. and Wright, G (2002) ‘The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios’, Wiley, Chichester. Hines, A. (2003) ‘Applying integral futures to environmental scanning’, Futures Research Quarterly, 19, 4, 49–62. Hobsbawm, E. (2000) ‘On the Edge of the New Century’, Franklin Watts, New York. Hodgson, A. (1992) ‘Hexagons for systems thinking’, European Journal of Operational Research, 59, 220–230. Jones, M. (1993)‘Decision Explorer: Reference manual version 3.1’, Banxia Software Ltd, Kendal. Kerr, W. (2004) ‘Tourism Public Policy, and the Strategic Management of Failure’, Pergamon, London. Lederer, P. (2003) ‘Ambitions for Scottish tourism’, Lecture to Moffat Centre for Travel and Tourism, Glasgow Caledonian University. Levi-Strauss, C. (1966) ‘The Savage Mind’, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. McLellan, R. and Smith, R. (1997) ‘Tourism in Scotland’, Thomson, London. Prideaux, B., Laws, E. and Faulkner, B. (2003) ‘Events in Indonesia: Exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting in complex crisis management’, Tourism Management, 24, 475–487. Seaton, A. V. and Hay, B. (1998) ‘The marketing of Scotland as a tourist destination, 1985–96’, in MacLellan, R. and Smith, R. (eds) ‘Tourism in Scotland’, Thomson Business Press, London. Sparrow, J. (1998) ‘Knowledge in Organisations’, Sage, London. Temtime, Z. T (2003) ‘Linking environmental scanning to total quality management through business planning’, Journal of Management Development, 23, 3, 219–233. Tress, B. and Tress, G. (2003) ‘Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning’, Landscape and Urban Planning, 64, 3, 161–178. VisitScotland (2002) ‘Tourism in Scotland’, Edinburgh. Accessed at http://www. scotexchange.net/know_your_market/ tourisminscotland2002.htm on 17th May, 2004. VisitScotland (2003) ‘Delivering Scotland all day, every day: 2002-03 Report and Accounts’, Edinburgh. Yeoman, I. (2004) ‘Developing a conceptual map of soft operational research practice’, PhD thesis, Napier University, Edinburgh. Page 284 Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper Downloaded from Yeoman, I. and Lederer, P. (2004) ‘What do you want Scottish tourism to look like in 2015?’, Quarterly Economic Commentary, 29, 2, 31–47. Yeoman, I. and Lennon, J. (2004) ‘Terrorism and disruption: Scenarios for the G8 Summit’, Internal VisitScotland Working Paper. Yeoman, I. and Lennon, J. (2004) ‘The reoccurrence of foot & mouth disease: A scenario for Scottish tourism’. Paper submitted to the Journal of Vacation Marketing. Yeoman, I., Lennon, J. and McMahon-Beattie, U. (2004) ‘West Nile disease: Scenarios or not for Scottish tourism’, internal Visit- Scotland Working Paper. Yong Y, W., Keng, K. A. and Leng, T. L. (1989) ‘A Delphi forecast for the Singapore tourism industry: Future scenario and marketing implications’, European Journal of Marketing, 23, 11, 35–46. Page",
year = "2005",
doi = "10.1057/palgrave.thr.6040026",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
pages = "273--285",
number = "3",

}

Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper, / Yeoman, I; McMahon-Beattie, U.

Vol. 5, No. 3, 2005, p. 273-285.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper,

AU - Yeoman, I

AU - McMahon-Beattie, U

N1 - Reference text: Baral, A., Baral, S. and Morgan, N. (2003) ‘Marketing Nepal in an uncertain climate: Confronting perceptions of risk and insecurity’, Journal of Vacation Marketing, 10, 2, 186–192. Bierman, D. (2003) ‘Restoring Tourism Destinations in Crisis: A Strategic Marketing Approach’, CABI Publishing, Oxford. Blake, A., Eugenio-Martin, J.L., Gooroochurn, N., Hay, B., Lennon, J., Sugiyarto, G., Sinclair, M.T. and Yeoman, I. (2004) ‘Tourism in Scotland: The Moffat Model for tourism forecasting and policy in complex situations’, Tourism: State of the Art Conference, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, June. Blake, A. and Sinclair, M.T. (2003) ‘Tourism crisis management: US responses to September 11’, Annals of Tourism, 30, 4, 813– 832. Brightman, J. (2004) CAFE´ Users Guide Version 1.2. Details available at www.banxia. com/deexplore/cafe´.com Brown, M. E. (2003) ‘Grave New World: Security Challenges in the 21st Ccentury’, George Washington Press, Washington. De Geus, A. (1988) ‘Planning as learning’, Harvard Business Review, 66, 2, 70–74 Dodds, R. and Hocking, A. (1994) ‘Solving messy problems: A guide to problem structuring techniques’, Report Ni. IC 93-075, Shell International Petroleum Maatschappij BV, Hague. Durie, A. J. (2002) ‘Scotland for the Holidays. Tourism in Scotland c1780–1939’, Tuckwell Press, East Linton. Eden, C. and Ackermann, F. (1998) ‘Journey Making’, Sage, London. Future Foundation (2004) ‘FutureScoping’, London. Galt, M., Chicoine-Piper, G., Chicoine-Piper, N. and Hodgson, A. (1997) ‘IDON Scenario Thinking: How to Navigate the Uncertainties of Unknown Futures’, IDON Thinking Resources, Pitlochry. Glaesser, D. (2005) ‘Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry’, Elsevier, Oxford. Hay, B. and Yeoman, I. (2004) ‘Our Ambitions for Scottish Tourism’, Tourism: State of the Art Conference Proceedings, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, June. Hiejden, K., Van Der. Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G. and Wright, G (2002) ‘The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios’, Wiley, Chichester. Hines, A. (2003) ‘Applying integral futures to environmental scanning’, Futures Research Quarterly, 19, 4, 49–62. Hobsbawm, E. (2000) ‘On the Edge of the New Century’, Franklin Watts, New York. Hodgson, A. (1992) ‘Hexagons for systems thinking’, European Journal of Operational Research, 59, 220–230. Jones, M. (1993)‘Decision Explorer: Reference manual version 3.1’, Banxia Software Ltd, Kendal. Kerr, W. (2004) ‘Tourism Public Policy, and the Strategic Management of Failure’, Pergamon, London. Lederer, P. (2003) ‘Ambitions for Scottish tourism’, Lecture to Moffat Centre for Travel and Tourism, Glasgow Caledonian University. Levi-Strauss, C. (1966) ‘The Savage Mind’, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. McLellan, R. and Smith, R. (1997) ‘Tourism in Scotland’, Thomson, London. Prideaux, B., Laws, E. and Faulkner, B. (2003) ‘Events in Indonesia: Exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting in complex crisis management’, Tourism Management, 24, 475–487. Seaton, A. V. and Hay, B. (1998) ‘The marketing of Scotland as a tourist destination, 1985–96’, in MacLellan, R. and Smith, R. (eds) ‘Tourism in Scotland’, Thomson Business Press, London. Sparrow, J. (1998) ‘Knowledge in Organisations’, Sage, London. Temtime, Z. T (2003) ‘Linking environmental scanning to total quality management through business planning’, Journal of Management Development, 23, 3, 219–233. Tress, B. and Tress, G. (2003) ‘Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning’, Landscape and Urban Planning, 64, 3, 161–178. VisitScotland (2002) ‘Tourism in Scotland’, Edinburgh. Accessed at http://www. scotexchange.net/know_your_market/ tourisminscotland2002.htm on 17th May, 2004. VisitScotland (2003) ‘Delivering Scotland all day, every day: 2002-03 Report and Accounts’, Edinburgh. Yeoman, I. (2004) ‘Developing a conceptual map of soft operational research practice’, PhD thesis, Napier University, Edinburgh. Page 284 Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper Downloaded from Yeoman, I. and Lederer, P. (2004) ‘What do you want Scottish tourism to look like in 2015?’, Quarterly Economic Commentary, 29, 2, 31–47. Yeoman, I. and Lennon, J. (2004) ‘Terrorism and disruption: Scenarios for the G8 Summit’, Internal VisitScotland Working Paper. Yeoman, I. and Lennon, J. (2004) ‘The reoccurrence of foot & mouth disease: A scenario for Scottish tourism’. Paper submitted to the Journal of Vacation Marketing. Yeoman, I., Lennon, J. and McMahon-Beattie, U. (2004) ‘West Nile disease: Scenarios or not for Scottish tourism’, internal Visit- Scotland Working Paper. Yong Y, W., Keng, K. A. and Leng, T. L. (1989) ‘A Delphi forecast for the Singapore tourism industry: Future scenario and marketing implications’, European Journal of Marketing, 23, 11, 35–46. Page

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - VisitScotland is the national tourism organisation for Scotland, primarily responsible for marketing Scotland as a destination. The agency is also the Scottish Executive's (Government) principal adviser on policy matters relating to tourism and has the ambition to be the best national tourism organisation in the world. In order to reach this goal, it is committed to futures thinking, in particular using scenario planning in order to frame this thinking. This paper describes how VisitScotland designed a scenario planning process based upon three clusters: A scenario planning group, environmental scanning; and a forecasting model/economic analysis.

AB - VisitScotland is the national tourism organisation for Scotland, primarily responsible for marketing Scotland as a destination. The agency is also the Scottish Executive's (Government) principal adviser on policy matters relating to tourism and has the ambition to be the best national tourism organisation in the world. In order to reach this goal, it is committed to futures thinking, in particular using scenario planning in order to frame this thinking. This paper describes how VisitScotland designed a scenario planning process based upon three clusters: A scenario planning group, environmental scanning; and a forecasting model/economic analysis.

U2 - 10.1057/palgrave.thr.6040026

DO - 10.1057/palgrave.thr.6040026

M3 - Article

VL - 5

SP - 273

EP - 285

IS - 3

ER -