Activities per year
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges we face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current pandemic. Such simulations enable early indications on the future projections of the pandemic and is useful to estimate the efficiency of control action in the battle against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The SEIR model is a well-known method used in computational simulations of infectious viral diseases and it has been widely used to model other epidemics such as Ebola, SARS, MERS, and influenza A. This paper presents a modified SEIRS model with additional exit conditions in the form of death rates and resusceptibility, where we can tune the exit conditions in the model to extend prediction on the current projections of the pandemic into three possible outcomes; death, recovery, and recovery with a possibility of resusceptibility. The model also considers specific information such as ageing factor of the population, time delay on the development of the pandemic due to control action measures, as well as resusceptibility with temporal immune response. Owing to huge variations in clinical symptoms exhibited by COVID-19, the proposed model aims to reflect better on the current scenario and case data reported, such that the spread of the disease and the efficiency of the control action taken can be better understood. The model is verified using two case studies based on the real-world data in South Korea and Northern Ireland.
|Journal||Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena|
|Early online date||9 Jun 2020|
|Publication status||Published (in print/issue) - 1 Oct 2020|
- Time delay
FingerprintDive into the research topics of 'COVID-19: Development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and resusceptibility'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.
- 1 Invited talk
Understanding Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases Using Complex Networks
Mark Ng (Speaker)1 Mar 2022 → 4 Mar 2022
Activity: Talk or presentation › Invited talk
Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vesselsNg, K. Y., Codreanu, T. A., Gui, M. M., Biglarbeigi, P., Finlay, D. & McLaughlin, J., 19 Oct 2022, 16 p. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.
Research output: Other contributionOpen AccessFile11 Downloads (Pure)
Assessing the effects of time-dependent restrictions and control actions to flatten the curve of COVID-19 in KazakhstanDo, T. D., Gui, M. M. & Ng, K. Y., 3 Feb 2021, In: PeerJ. 9, p. e10806 10806.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-reviewOpen AccessFile