Computational Time Series Analysis of Patient Referrals to a Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Service

Aleeha Iftikhar, RR Bond, V. E. McGilligan, Stephen James Leslie, Anne McShane, Charles Knoery, Khaled Rjoob, Aaron Peace

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper retrospectively analyses a Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) dataset comprising of patient referrals that were accepted for PPCI and those who were turned down between January 2015 to December 2018 at Altnagelvin hospital (UK). Time series analysis of these referrals was undertaken for analysing the referral rates per year, month, day and per hour.The overall referrals have 70% (n=1466, p<0.001) males. Out of total referrals, 65% (p<0.001) referrals were ‘out of hours’. Seasonality decomposition shows a peak in referrals on average every 3 months (SD=0.83). No significant correlation (R=0.03 p=0.86, R= -0.11 p=0.62) was found between the referral numbers and turndown rate. Being female increased the probability of being out of hour in all the groups. The 30 days mortality was higher in turndown group.The time series of all the referrals depict variation over the months or days which is not the same each year. The average age of the patients in the turndown group is higher. The number of referrals does not impact on the turndown rate and clinical decision making. Most patients are being referred out of hours especially females. This analysis leads to the emphasis on the importance of working 24/7 CathLab service.


LanguageEnglish
Number of pages15
JournalHealth Informatics Journal
Early online date24 Jan 2020
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 24 Jan 2020

Fingerprint

Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
Referral and Consultation
Mortality

Keywords

  • PPCI
  • time series analysis
  • health data analysis
  • pathway analysis
  • heart attacks
  • cathlab

Cite this

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title = "Computational Time Series Analysis of Patient Referrals to a Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Service",
abstract = "This paper retrospectively analyses a Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) dataset comprising of patient referrals that were accepted for PPCI and those who were turned down between January 2015 to December 2018 at Altnagelvin hospital (UK). Time series analysis of these referrals was undertaken for analysing the referral rates per year, month, day and per hour.The overall referrals have 70{\%} (n=1466, p<0.001) males. Out of total referrals, 65{\%} (p<0.001) referrals were ‘out of hours’. Seasonality decomposition shows a peak in referrals on average every 3 months (SD=0.83). No significant correlation (R=0.03 p=0.86, R= -0.11 p=0.62) was found between the referral numbers and turndown rate. Being female increased the probability of being out of hour in all the groups. The 30 days mortality was higher in turndown group.The time series of all the referrals depict variation over the months or days which is not the same each year. The average age of the patients in the turndown group is higher. The number of referrals does not impact on the turndown rate and clinical decision making. Most patients are being referred out of hours especially females. This analysis leads to the emphasis on the importance of working 24/7 CathLab service.",
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Computational Time Series Analysis of Patient Referrals to a Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Service. / Iftikhar, Aleeha; Bond, RR; McGilligan, V. E.; Leslie, Stephen James; McShane, Anne; Knoery, Charles; Rjoob, Khaled; Peace, Aaron.

In: Health Informatics Journal, 24.01.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Peace, Aaron

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