Can multivariate Granger causality detect directed connectivity of a multistable and dynamic biological decision network model?

Extracting causal connections can advance interpretable AI and machine learning. Granger causality (GC) is a robust statistical method for estimating directed influences (DC) between signals. While GC has been widely applied to analysing neuronal signals in biological neural networks and other domains, its application to complex, nonlinear, and multistable neural networks is less explored. In this study, we applied time-domain multivariate Granger causality (MVGC) to the time series neural activity of all nodes in a trained multistable biologically based decision neural network model with real-time decision uncertainty monitoring. Our analysis demonstrated that challenging two-choice decisions, where input signals could be closely matched, and the appropriate application of fine-grained sliding time windows, could readily reveal the original model’s DC. Furthermore, the identified DC varied based on whether the network had correct or error decisions. Integrating the identified DC from different decision outcomes recovered most of the original model’s architecture, despite some spurious and missing connectivity. This approach could be used as an initial exploration to enhance the interpretability and transparency of dynamic multistable and nonlinear biological or AI systems by revealing causal connections throughout different phases of neural network dynamics and outcomes.