This report describes development of spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and axial length (AL) in two population-based cohorts of white, European children. Predictive factors for myopic growth were explored. Participants were aged 6-7- (n=390) and 12-13-years (n=657) at baseline. SER and AL were assessed at baseline and 3, 6 and 9 years prospectively. Between 6-16 years: latent growth mixture modelling identified four SER classes (Persistent Emmetropes-PEMM, Persistent Moderate Hyperopes-PMHYP, Persistent High Hyperopes-PHHYP and Emerging Myopes-EMYO) as optimal to characterise refractive progression and two classes to characterise AL. Between 12-22-years: five SER classes (PHHYP, PMHYP, PEMM, Low Progressing Myopes-LPMYO and High Progressing Myopes-HPMYO) and four AL classes were identified. EMYO had significantly longer baseline AL (≥23.19mm) (OR 2.5, CI 1.05-5.97) and at least one myopic parent (OR 6.28, CI 1.01-38.93). More myopic SER at 6-7 years (≤+0.19D) signalled risk for earlier myopia onset by 10-years in comparison to baseline SER of those who became myopic by 13 or 16 years (p≤0.02). SER and AL progressed more slowly in myopes aged 12-22-years (-0.16D, 0.15mm) compared to 6-16-years (-0.41D, 0.30mm). These growth trajectories and risk criteria allow prediction of abnormal myopigenic growth and constitute an important resource for developing and testing anti-myopia interventions.
|Publication status||Accepted/In press - 21 Aug 2020|
- axial length
- eye growth
- risk factors
- refractive error