An ontological classification of tourism futures.

Tourism futures is a relative new and evolving area of research. Tourism itself is multi-disciplinary in nature and not founded on one theoretical position. Therefore the question arises, how can one frame the future of tourism? This paper explores tourism futurist Dr Ian Yeoman’s research in order to distinguish between states of the future. Using an ontological perspective, it frames his research based upon the claims of truthfulness and explanation. Drawing upon examples from publications and projects four forms of tourism futures knowledge are presented and explored within specific research contexts: prediction (family tourism trends), prognosis (oil and computer generated equilibrium modelling), science fiction (sex workers as androids), and utopia (New Zealand as an eco paradise). The usefulness of the framework as a device to stretch our understanding of the future in the scenario planning process is, as is the utility value of the framework in practice.