An Assessment of Risk Factors Involved in Modeling Cash Flow Forecast

Henry Odeyinka, John Lowe

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    Many models have been developed to assist contractors and clients in their cash flow forecasting. The majority of these have been based on standard cash flow S-curves, developed using the traditional manual approach, mathematical and statistical models.Many of these models failed to consider and analyse the factors responsible for the considerable variations in the modelled cash flow profiles. This study as a first step in a knowledge-based expert system (KBES) modelling of construction cash flow to incorporate risk and uncertainties, identified and assessed the risk factors responsible for the variation in construction cash flow profiles. The study was conducted through a questionnaire survey administered on contracting organisations. Analyses were carried out using mean response and univariate analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results showed that the major risk factors involved in cash flow forecasting relate to changes in the design or specifications, contract conditions pertaining to cash in flow, interim valuations and certificates and construction programming issues such as inclement weather. Results also indicated that cash flow forecasting modelling that incorporates risk would need to consider categorisation along the groupings of firm size, procurement methods and construction duration.
    LanguageEnglish
    Title of host publicationUnknown Host Publication
    EditorsAkintola Akintoye
    Place of PublicationReading
    Pages557-565
    Number of pages9
    Volume1
    Publication statusPublished - 8 Sep 2000
    EventAssociation of Researchers in Construction Management (ARCOM) Annual Conference - Glasgow Caledonian University, UK
    Duration: 8 Sep 2000 → …

    Conference

    ConferenceAssociation of Researchers in Construction Management (ARCOM) Annual Conference
    Period8/09/00 → …

    Fingerprint

    risk factor
    modeling
    firm size
    forecast
    questionnaire survey
    expert system
    valuation
    variance analysis
    weather

    Keywords

    • Cash flow
    • construction projects
    • contractors
    • modelling
    • risk factors

    Cite this

    Odeyinka, H., & Lowe, J. (2000). An Assessment of Risk Factors Involved in Modeling Cash Flow Forecast. In A. Akintoye (Ed.), Unknown Host Publication (Vol. 1, pp. 557-565). Reading.
    Odeyinka, Henry ; Lowe, John. / An Assessment of Risk Factors Involved in Modeling Cash Flow Forecast. Unknown Host Publication. editor / Akintola Akintoye. Vol. 1 Reading, 2000. pp. 557-565
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    title = "An Assessment of Risk Factors Involved in Modeling Cash Flow Forecast",
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    Odeyinka, H & Lowe, J 2000, An Assessment of Risk Factors Involved in Modeling Cash Flow Forecast. in A Akintoye (ed.), Unknown Host Publication. vol. 1, Reading, pp. 557-565, Association of Researchers in Construction Management (ARCOM) Annual Conference, 8/09/00.

    An Assessment of Risk Factors Involved in Modeling Cash Flow Forecast. / Odeyinka, Henry; Lowe, John.

    Unknown Host Publication. ed. / Akintola Akintoye. Vol. 1 Reading, 2000. p. 557-565.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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    AB - Many models have been developed to assist contractors and clients in their cash flow forecasting. The majority of these have been based on standard cash flow S-curves, developed using the traditional manual approach, mathematical and statistical models.Many of these models failed to consider and analyse the factors responsible for the considerable variations in the modelled cash flow profiles. This study as a first step in a knowledge-based expert system (KBES) modelling of construction cash flow to incorporate risk and uncertainties, identified and assessed the risk factors responsible for the variation in construction cash flow profiles. The study was conducted through a questionnaire survey administered on contracting organisations. Analyses were carried out using mean response and univariate analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results showed that the major risk factors involved in cash flow forecasting relate to changes in the design or specifications, contract conditions pertaining to cash in flow, interim valuations and certificates and construction programming issues such as inclement weather. Results also indicated that cash flow forecasting modelling that incorporates risk would need to consider categorisation along the groupings of firm size, procurement methods and construction duration.

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    KW - risk factors

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    Odeyinka H, Lowe J. An Assessment of Risk Factors Involved in Modeling Cash Flow Forecast. In Akintoye A, editor, Unknown Host Publication. Vol. 1. Reading. 2000. p. 557-565