A Holistic Approach For Assessing Impact Of Extreme Weather On Critical Infrastructure

M Räikkönen; K Mäki; M Murtonen; K Forssén; A Tagg; P Petiet; A Nieuwenhuijs; M McCord

doi:10.2495/SAFE-V0-N0-1-10

A Holistic Approach For Assessing Impact Of Extreme Weather On Critical Infrastructure

M Räikkönen, K Mäki, M Murtonen, K Forssén, A Tagg, P Petiet, A Nieuwenhuijs, M McCord

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Urban infrastructures are essential to the health, safety, security and economic well-being of citizensand organisations. Therefore, the managers of critical infrastructures (CI) and infrastructure systemsin urban areas need to be constantly aware of and prepared for to any man-made and natural disasters.In this paper, we propose a structured approach to assess extreme weather impacts on CI and discusshow resilience and risk tolerance of critical infrastructure can be enhanced. The approach is aimed atsupporting CI owners’ and managers’ decision-making on a strategic level. It follows a process flowfrom hazard and CI identification, vulnerability analysis, potential damage estimation, loss assessmentto identification and assessment of measures. The approach incorporates many elements, phases andmethods from hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis(CBA), and combines and incorporates them into one aggregated structure, thus providing a holisticview to risk management and CI protection. The proposed approach is flexible in the sense that itencompasses not only a rigorous quantitative assessment, but also allows for a semi-quantitative orqualitative assessment. In addition, the approach enhances transparency of decision making and contributesto more comprehensive use of available information. The paper is based on research carried outin the INTACT and HARMONISE projects, which are co-funded by the European Union under the 7thFramework Programme.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	171-180
Journal	International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering
Volume	6
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2495/SAFE-V0-N0-1-10
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 5 May 2016

Bibliographical note

Reference text: [1] The HARMONISE-project, A Holistic Approach to Resilience and Syste Matic Actions
to Make Large Scale Urban Built Infrastructure Secure http://harmonise.eu/
[2] Luiijf, E., Nieuwenhuijs, A., Klaver, M., Eeten, M. & Cruz, E., Empirical findings on
critical infrastructure dependencies in europe. In Critical Information Infrastructure
Security: Third International Workshop, CRITIS 2008, Rome, Italy, Revised Papers,
Springer-Verlag, pp. 302–310, 2009.
[3] Räikkönen, M., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Kunttu, S., Yliaho, J., Jähi, M., Zuccaro, G. & Del
Cogliano, D., Assessing economic impacts of crises – a decision-support approach to
long-term strategic planning. Proceedings of the IX International Conference on Risk
Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, C.A. Brebbia, WIT Press (Wessex Institute of Technology),
pp. 229–241. Risk Analysis 2014. New Forest, UK, 2014.
[4] Nieuwenhuijs, A., & Geerdink, T. (eds), Report on Structure and Content of the IRG,
INTACT Deliverable D6.1, project co-funded by the European Commission under the
7th Framework Programme, 2015.
[5] Fingrid. Jatkunut myrsky aiheutti uusia vikoja. [Online] www.fingrid.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/
tiedotteet/Sivut%2FJatkunut-myrsky-aiheutti-uusiavikoja.aspx
[6] Fingrid, Talvimyrskyn vaikutukset kantaverkkoon 26.-27.12.2011. [Online] www.
fingrid.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/tiedotteet/Sivut%2FTalvimyrskyn-vaikutuksetkantaverkkoon-
26.-27.12.2011-%28P%C3%A4ivitetty-9.1.2012%29.aspx
[7] Mäki, K., Forssén K. & Vidar Vangelsten, B. (eds), Factors Contributing to CI Vulnerability
and Resilience, INTACT Deliverable D3.2, project co-funded by the European
Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015.
[8] Millet, I. & Wedley, W.C., Modelling risk and uncertainty with the analytic hierarchy
process. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, 11(2), pp. 97–107, 2002.
[9] ISO 31000, Risk management – Principles and Guidelines, International Organization
for Standardization, 24 p., 2013.
[10] Cavasogly, H., Making sound security investment decisions. Journal of Information
Privacy & Security, 6(1), pp. 53–71, 2010.
[11] Aven, T. & Renn, O., Risk Management and Governance, Concepts, Guidelines and
Applications, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Vol. 16, 2010.
[12] IRGC - International risk governance council. An introduction to the IRGC Risk Governance
Framework, 2012.
[13] McCord, M., Rodgers, J., Davis, P., Haran, M. & Berchtold, C., SOTA gaps and guidance
parameters for all WP’s, INTACT Deliverable D1.1, project co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015.
[14] SE Handbook, Systems Engineering Handbook—A Guide for System life Cycle Processes
and Activities, San Diego: INCOSE, 2011.
[15] ISO IEC 15288, Systems and Software Engineering – System Life Cycle Processes,
(IEEE Std 15288-2008), 2 edn, 2008.
[16] ISO IEC 26702. Systems engineering – application and management of the systems
engineering process, (IEEE Std 1220-2005), 1 edn, 2007.
[17] Tiusanen, R., An Approach for the Assessment of Safety Risks in Automated Mobile
Workmachine Systems, Espoo, VTT. 200 p. + app. 6 p. VTT Science, 69, 2014.
[18] UNISDR. 2009 UNIDSR terminology on disaster risk reduction, Geneva, Switzerland,
Nations. 30 p, 2009.
[19] Kröger, W. & Zio, E., Vulnerable Systems, Springer, 2011.
[20] McKenzie, E., Prasad, B. & Kaloumaira, A., Guidelines for estimating the economic
impact of natural disasters in the pacific. The Australia Agency for International Development,
pp. 1–38, 2005.
[21] Middelmann, M.H. (Ed), Natural Hazards. Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements in
Australia. Chapter 2: Impact of Natural Disasters. Department of Industry, Tourism &
Resources Minister for Industry, Tourism & Resources: The Hon. Ian Macfarlane, MP
Parliamentary Secretary: The Hon. Bob Baldwin, MP. pp. 7–29, 2007.
[22] Räikkönen, M., Rosqvist, T., Poussa, L. & Jähi, M., A framework for integrating
economic evaluation and risk assessment to support policymakers’ security-related
decision. Proceedings of the 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and
Management Conference & The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference,
The European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA), PSAM11 & ESREL 2012,
Helsinki,
[23] Räikkönen, M., Kunttu, S., Murtonen, M. & Jähi, M., Economic Evaluation of Large
Scale Urban Built Infrastructure - Introducing the RESEC Method, VTT Technology
260, 37p. + app.3 p. http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/technology/2016/T260.pdf, ISBN 978-
951-38-8421-5, VTT, Espoo, 2016.

Keywords

cost-benefit analysis
critical infrastructure
extreme weather
measure
resilience
risk
risk assessment
urban infrastructure
urban resilience
vulnerability

Access to Document

10.2495/SAFE-V0-N0-1-10

http://uir.ulster.ac.uk/34918/1/intact%20paper%20final%20SAFE_17681.pdf

Cite this

@article{4fb7f8408a634a278c8a54e842ef3899,

title = "A Holistic Approach For Assessing Impact Of Extreme Weather On Critical Infrastructure",

abstract = "Urban infrastructures are essential to the health, safety, security and economic well-being of citizensand organisations. Therefore, the managers of critical infrastructures (CI) and infrastructure systemsin urban areas need to be constantly aware of and prepared for to any man-made and natural disasters.In this paper, we propose a structured approach to assess extreme weather impacts on CI and discusshow resilience and risk tolerance of critical infrastructure can be enhanced. The approach is aimed atsupporting CI owners{\textquoteright} and managers{\textquoteright} decision-making on a strategic level. It follows a process flowfrom hazard and CI identification, vulnerability analysis, potential damage estimation, loss assessmentto identification and assessment of measures. The approach incorporates many elements, phases andmethods from hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis(CBA), and combines and incorporates them into one aggregated structure, thus providing a holisticview to risk management and CI protection. The proposed approach is flexible in the sense that itencompasses not only a rigorous quantitative assessment, but also allows for a semi-quantitative orqualitative assessment. In addition, the approach enhances transparency of decision making and contributesto more comprehensive use of available information. The paper is based on research carried outin the INTACT and HARMONISE projects, which are co-funded by the European Union under the 7thFramework Programme.",

keywords = "cost-benefit analysis, critical infrastructure, extreme weather, measure, resilience, risk, risk assessment, urban infrastructure, urban resilience, vulnerability",

author = "M R{\"a}ikk{\"o}nen and K M{\"a}ki and M Murtonen and K Forss{\'e}n and A Tagg and P Petiet and A Nieuwenhuijs and M McCord",

note = "Reference text: [1] The HARMONISE-project, A Holistic Approach to Resilience and Syste Matic Actions to Make Large Scale Urban Built Infrastructure Secure http://harmonise.eu/ [2] Luiijf, E., Nieuwenhuijs, A., Klaver, M., Eeten, M. & Cruz, E., Empirical findings on critical infrastructure dependencies in europe. In Critical Information Infrastructure Security: Third International Workshop, CRITIS 2008, Rome, Italy, Revised Papers, Springer-Verlag, pp. 302–310, 2009. [3] R{\"a}ikk{\"o}nen, M., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Kunttu, S., Yliaho, J., J{\"a}hi, M., Zuccaro, G. & Del Cogliano, D., Assessing economic impacts of crises – a decision-support approach to long-term strategic planning. Proceedings of the IX International Conference on Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, C.A. Brebbia, WIT Press (Wessex Institute of Technology), pp. 229–241. Risk Analysis 2014. New Forest, UK, 2014. [4] Nieuwenhuijs, A., & Geerdink, T. (eds), Report on Structure and Content of the IRG, INTACT Deliverable D6.1, project co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015. [5] Fingrid. Jatkunut myrsky aiheutti uusia vikoja. [Online] www.fingrid.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/ tiedotteet/Sivut%2FJatkunut-myrsky-aiheutti-uusiavikoja.aspx [6] Fingrid, Talvimyrskyn vaikutukset kantaverkkoon 26.-27.12.2011. [Online] www. fingrid.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/tiedotteet/Sivut%2FTalvimyrskyn-vaikutuksetkantaverkkoon- 26.-27.12.2011-%28P%C3%A4ivitetty-9.1.2012%29.aspx [7] M{\"a}ki, K., Forss{\'e}n K. & Vidar Vangelsten, B. (eds), Factors Contributing to CI Vulnerability and Resilience, INTACT Deliverable D3.2, project co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015. [8] Millet, I. & Wedley, W.C., Modelling risk and uncertainty with the analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, 11(2), pp. 97–107, 2002. [9] ISO 31000, Risk management – Principles and Guidelines, International Organization for Standardization, 24 p., 2013. [10] Cavasogly, H., Making sound security investment decisions. Journal of Information Privacy & Security, 6(1), pp. 53–71, 2010. [11] Aven, T. & Renn, O., Risk Management and Governance, Concepts, Guidelines and Applications, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Vol. 16, 2010. [12] IRGC - International risk governance council. An introduction to the IRGC Risk Governance Framework, 2012. [13] McCord, M., Rodgers, J., Davis, P., Haran, M. & Berchtold, C., SOTA gaps and guidance parameters for all WP{\textquoteright}s, INTACT Deliverable D1.1, project co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015. [14] SE Handbook, Systems Engineering Handbook—A Guide for System life Cycle Processes and Activities, San Diego: INCOSE, 2011. [15] ISO IEC 15288, Systems and Software Engineering – System Life Cycle Processes, (IEEE Std 15288-2008), 2 edn, 2008. [16] ISO IEC 26702. Systems engineering – application and management of the systems engineering process, (IEEE Std 1220-2005), 1 edn, 2007. [17] Tiusanen, R., An Approach for the Assessment of Safety Risks in Automated Mobile Workmachine Systems, Espoo, VTT. 200 p. + app. 6 p. VTT Science, 69, 2014. [18] UNISDR. 2009 UNIDSR terminology on disaster risk reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, Nations. 30 p, 2009. [19] Kr{\"o}ger, W. & Zio, E., Vulnerable Systems, Springer, 2011. [20] McKenzie, E., Prasad, B. & Kaloumaira, A., Guidelines for estimating the economic impact of natural disasters in the pacific. The Australia Agency for International Development, pp. 1–38, 2005. [21] Middelmann, M.H. (Ed), Natural Hazards. Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements in Australia. Chapter 2: Impact of Natural Disasters. Department of Industry, Tourism & Resources Minister for Industry, Tourism & Resources: The Hon. Ian Macfarlane, MP Parliamentary Secretary: The Hon. Bob Baldwin, MP. pp. 7–29, 2007. [22] R{\"a}ikk{\"o}nen, M., Rosqvist, T., Poussa, L. & J{\"a}hi, M., A framework for integrating economic evaluation and risk assessment to support policymakers{\textquoteright} security-related decision. Proceedings of the 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference & The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference, The European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA), PSAM11 & ESREL 2012, Helsinki, [23] R{\"a}ikk{\"o}nen, M., Kunttu, S., Murtonen, M. & J{\"a}hi, M., Economic Evaluation of Large Scale Urban Built Infrastructure - Introducing the RESEC Method, VTT Technology 260, 37p. + app.3 p. http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/technology/2016/T260.pdf, ISBN 978- 951-38-8421-5, VTT, Espoo, 2016.",

year = "2016",

month = may,

day = "5",

doi = "10.2495/SAFE-V0-N0-1-10",

language = "English",

volume = "6",

pages = "171--180",

journal = "International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering",

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T1 - A Holistic Approach For Assessing Impact Of Extreme Weather On Critical Infrastructure

AU - Räikkönen, M

AU - Mäki, K

AU - Murtonen, M

AU - Forssén, K

AU - Tagg, A

AU - Petiet, P

AU - Nieuwenhuijs, A

AU - McCord, M

N1 - Reference text: [1] The HARMONISE-project, A Holistic Approach to Resilience and Syste Matic Actions to Make Large Scale Urban Built Infrastructure Secure http://harmonise.eu/ [2] Luiijf, E., Nieuwenhuijs, A., Klaver, M., Eeten, M. & Cruz, E., Empirical findings on critical infrastructure dependencies in europe. In Critical Information Infrastructure Security: Third International Workshop, CRITIS 2008, Rome, Italy, Revised Papers, Springer-Verlag, pp. 302–310, 2009. [3] Räikkönen, M., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Kunttu, S., Yliaho, J., Jähi, M., Zuccaro, G. & Del Cogliano, D., Assessing economic impacts of crises – a decision-support approach to long-term strategic planning. Proceedings of the IX International Conference on Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, C.A. Brebbia, WIT Press (Wessex Institute of Technology), pp. 229–241. Risk Analysis 2014. New Forest, UK, 2014. [4] Nieuwenhuijs, A., & Geerdink, T. (eds), Report on Structure and Content of the IRG, INTACT Deliverable D6.1, project co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015. [5] Fingrid. Jatkunut myrsky aiheutti uusia vikoja. [Online] www.fingrid.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/ tiedotteet/Sivut%2FJatkunut-myrsky-aiheutti-uusiavikoja.aspx [6] Fingrid, Talvimyrskyn vaikutukset kantaverkkoon 26.-27.12.2011. [Online] www. fingrid.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/tiedotteet/Sivut%2FTalvimyrskyn-vaikutuksetkantaverkkoon- 26.-27.12.2011-%28P%C3%A4ivitetty-9.1.2012%29.aspx [7] Mäki, K., Forssén K. & Vidar Vangelsten, B. (eds), Factors Contributing to CI Vulnerability and Resilience, INTACT Deliverable D3.2, project co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015. [8] Millet, I. & Wedley, W.C., Modelling risk and uncertainty with the analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, 11(2), pp. 97–107, 2002. [9] ISO 31000, Risk management – Principles and Guidelines, International Organization for Standardization, 24 p., 2013. [10] Cavasogly, H., Making sound security investment decisions. Journal of Information Privacy & Security, 6(1), pp. 53–71, 2010. [11] Aven, T. & Renn, O., Risk Management and Governance, Concepts, Guidelines and Applications, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Vol. 16, 2010. [12] IRGC - International risk governance council. An introduction to the IRGC Risk Governance Framework, 2012. [13] McCord, M., Rodgers, J., Davis, P., Haran, M. & Berchtold, C., SOTA gaps and guidance parameters for all WP’s, INTACT Deliverable D1.1, project co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, 2015. [14] SE Handbook, Systems Engineering Handbook—A Guide for System life Cycle Processes and Activities, San Diego: INCOSE, 2011. [15] ISO IEC 15288, Systems and Software Engineering – System Life Cycle Processes, (IEEE Std 15288-2008), 2 edn, 2008. [16] ISO IEC 26702. Systems engineering – application and management of the systems engineering process, (IEEE Std 1220-2005), 1 edn, 2007. [17] Tiusanen, R., An Approach for the Assessment of Safety Risks in Automated Mobile Workmachine Systems, Espoo, VTT. 200 p. + app. 6 p. VTT Science, 69, 2014. [18] UNISDR. 2009 UNIDSR terminology on disaster risk reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, Nations. 30 p, 2009. [19] Kröger, W. & Zio, E., Vulnerable Systems, Springer, 2011. [20] McKenzie, E., Prasad, B. & Kaloumaira, A., Guidelines for estimating the economic impact of natural disasters in the pacific. The Australia Agency for International Development, pp. 1–38, 2005. [21] Middelmann, M.H. (Ed), Natural Hazards. Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements in Australia. Chapter 2: Impact of Natural Disasters. Department of Industry, Tourism & Resources Minister for Industry, Tourism & Resources: The Hon. Ian Macfarlane, MP Parliamentary Secretary: The Hon. Bob Baldwin, MP. pp. 7–29, 2007. [22] Räikkönen, M., Rosqvist, T., Poussa, L. & Jähi, M., A framework for integrating economic evaluation and risk assessment to support policymakers’ security-related decision. Proceedings of the 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference & The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference, The European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA), PSAM11 & ESREL 2012, Helsinki, [23] Räikkönen, M., Kunttu, S., Murtonen, M. & Jähi, M., Economic Evaluation of Large Scale Urban Built Infrastructure - Introducing the RESEC Method, VTT Technology 260, 37p. + app.3 p. http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/technology/2016/T260.pdf, ISBN 978- 951-38-8421-5, VTT, Espoo, 2016.

PY - 2016/5/5

Y1 - 2016/5/5

N2 - Urban infrastructures are essential to the health, safety, security and economic well-being of citizensand organisations. Therefore, the managers of critical infrastructures (CI) and infrastructure systemsin urban areas need to be constantly aware of and prepared for to any man-made and natural disasters.In this paper, we propose a structured approach to assess extreme weather impacts on CI and discusshow resilience and risk tolerance of critical infrastructure can be enhanced. The approach is aimed atsupporting CI owners’ and managers’ decision-making on a strategic level. It follows a process flowfrom hazard and CI identification, vulnerability analysis, potential damage estimation, loss assessmentto identification and assessment of measures. The approach incorporates many elements, phases andmethods from hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis(CBA), and combines and incorporates them into one aggregated structure, thus providing a holisticview to risk management and CI protection. The proposed approach is flexible in the sense that itencompasses not only a rigorous quantitative assessment, but also allows for a semi-quantitative orqualitative assessment. In addition, the approach enhances transparency of decision making and contributesto more comprehensive use of available information. The paper is based on research carried outin the INTACT and HARMONISE projects, which are co-funded by the European Union under the 7thFramework Programme.

AB - Urban infrastructures are essential to the health, safety, security and economic well-being of citizensand organisations. Therefore, the managers of critical infrastructures (CI) and infrastructure systemsin urban areas need to be constantly aware of and prepared for to any man-made and natural disasters.In this paper, we propose a structured approach to assess extreme weather impacts on CI and discusshow resilience and risk tolerance of critical infrastructure can be enhanced. The approach is aimed atsupporting CI owners’ and managers’ decision-making on a strategic level. It follows a process flowfrom hazard and CI identification, vulnerability analysis, potential damage estimation, loss assessmentto identification and assessment of measures. The approach incorporates many elements, phases andmethods from hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis(CBA), and combines and incorporates them into one aggregated structure, thus providing a holisticview to risk management and CI protection. The proposed approach is flexible in the sense that itencompasses not only a rigorous quantitative assessment, but also allows for a semi-quantitative orqualitative assessment. In addition, the approach enhances transparency of decision making and contributesto more comprehensive use of available information. The paper is based on research carried outin the INTACT and HARMONISE projects, which are co-funded by the European Union under the 7thFramework Programme.

KW - cost-benefit analysis

KW - critical infrastructure

KW - extreme weather

KW - measure

KW - resilience

KW - risk

KW - risk assessment

KW - urban infrastructure

KW - urban resilience

KW - vulnerability

U2 - 10.2495/SAFE-V0-N0-1-10

DO - 10.2495/SAFE-V0-N0-1-10

M3 - Article

SN - 2041-904X

VL - 6

SP - 171

EP - 180

JO - International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering

JF - International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering

IS - 2

ER -

A Holistic Approach For Assessing Impact Of Extreme Weather On Critical Infrastructure

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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