A Geodesy- and Seismicity-Based Local Earthquake Likelihood Model for Central Los Angeles

Chris Rollins, Jean Philippe Avouac

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We estimate time-independent earthquake likelihoods in central Los Angeles using a model of interseismic strain accumulation and the 1932–2017 seismic catalog. We assume that on the long-term average, earthquakes and aseismic deformation collectively release seismic moment at a rate balancing interseismic loading, mainshocks obey the Gutenberg-Richter law (a log linear magnitude-frequency distribution [MFD]) up to a maximum magnitude and a Poisson process, and aftershock sequences obey the Gutenberg-Richter and “Båth” laws. We model a comprehensive suite of these long-term systems, assess how likely each system would be to have produced the MFD of the instrumental catalog, and use these likelihoods to probabilistically estimate the long-term MFD. We estimate Mmax = 6.8 + 1.05/−0.4 (every ~300 years) or Mmax = 7.05 + 0.95/−0.4 assuming a truncated or tapered Gutenberg-Richter MFD, respectively. Our results imply that, for example, the (median) likelihood of one or more Mw ≥ 6.5 mainshocks is 0.2% in 1 year, 2% in 10 years, and 18–21% in 100 years.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3153-3162
Number of pages10
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume46
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Mar 2019

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