A dynamic hypothesis for developing energy-efficiency technologies in housing industry

The UK target to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from housing has been challenged by the fact that 80% of the UK housing stock existing in 2030 has already been built. Energy-efficiency technologies for existing housing are developed in attempt to meet this target, e.g. fabric upgrades, ventilation systems, etc, but the interrelationship between the technical and social aspects of using these technologies is not fully understood. From the household perspective, a clear financial case in addition to other intangible benefits should exist to create high demand for these technologies. On the other hand, many technological interventions are still in the development stage and according to the technology diffusion theory there will be a delay in adopting thesetechnologies on the expected scale. This study will use system dynamics modelling to investigate the relationship between the supply and demand of energy-efficiency technologies for existing housing. A dynamichypothesis will be set to analyse the interrelationships among the controlling variables of technologies development over a period of time. This paper introduces the main structure of the study and discusses thetechnique adopted to model the identified dynamic hypothesis.