A Comparison of Explanatory Measures in Abductive Inference.

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Computer simulations have been carried out to investigate the performance
of two measures for abductive inference, Maximum Likelihood (ML),
and Product Coherence Measure (PCM), by comparing them with a third
approach, Most Probable Explanation (MPE). These have been realized through
experiments that compare outcomes from a specified model (the correct model)
with those from incorrect models which assume that the hypotheses are mutually exclusive or independent. The results show that PCM tracks the results of MPE more closely than ML when the degree of competition is greater than 0 and hence is able to infer explanations that are more likely to be true under such a condition. Experiments on the robustness of the measures with respect to
incorrect model assumptions show that ML is more robust in general, but that
MPE and PCM are more robust when the degree of competition is positive. The
results also show that in general it is more reasonable to assume the hypotheses
in question are independent than to assume they are mutually exclusive.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInformation Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems - 18th International Conference, IPMU 2020, Proceedings
EditorsMarie-Jeanne Lesot, Susana Vieira, Marek Z. Reformat, João Paulo Carvalho, Anna Wilbik, Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier, Ronald R. Yager
Number of pages14
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-50153-2
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-50152-5
Publication statusPublished online - 5 Jun 2020
Event18th International Conference, IPMU 2020
Lisbon, Portugal, June 15–19, 2020
: IPMU 2020
- Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 17 Jun 202019 Jun 2020
Conference number: 18th

Publication series

NameCommunications in Computer and Information Science
Volume1239 CCIS
ISSN (Print)1865-0929
ISSN (Electronic)1865-0937


Conference18th International Conference, IPMU 2020
Lisbon, Portugal, June 15–19, 2020
Internet address


  • Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE)
  • Explanatory reasoning
  • Hypotheses competition
  • Abduction


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