A Case Study of How VisitScotland Prepared for War

I Yeoman, M Galt, U McMahon-Beattie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

VisitScotland, the national tourism agency for Scotland,used a scenario-planning process to untangle the complexityof the forthcoming war in Iraq. The scenarios explored theimpact of such a war on tourism against a backdrop of aneconomic environment of failing equity markets and GDP. In2003, Scotland was on the verge of a recession, andVisitScotland wanted to know how war would affect this economicenvironment and, simultaneously, how this would affectdifferent tourism markets. VisitScotland constructedfour scenarios: how the West was won, global Northern Ireland,new dawn, and into the valley of death. The scenarioshelped the organization develop policies and actions to dealwith contingencies in each scenario. More importantly, thearticle shows how VisitScotland managed the process, whatit did, and policy implications for the future.
LanguageEnglish
Pages6-20
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Volume44
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005

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recession
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@article{83dcf8d0b8f0496a8420280391c8520c,
title = "A Case Study of How VisitScotland Prepared for War",
abstract = "VisitScotland, the national tourism agency for Scotland,used a scenario-planning process to untangle the complexityof the forthcoming war in Iraq. The scenarios explored theimpact of such a war on tourism against a backdrop of aneconomic environment of failing equity markets and GDP. In2003, Scotland was on the verge of a recession, andVisitScotland wanted to know how war would affect this economicenvironment and, simultaneously, how this would affectdifferent tourism markets. VisitScotland constructedfour scenarios: how the West was won, global Northern Ireland,new dawn, and into the valley of death. The scenarioshelped the organization develop policies and actions to dealwith contingencies in each scenario. More importantly, thearticle shows how VisitScotland managed the process, whatit did, and policy implications for the future.",
author = "I Yeoman and M Galt and U McMahon-Beattie",
note = "Reference text: BBC 2004. “London Terror Attack ‘Inevitable.’” Retrieved from http:// www.bbc.co.uk/news. Blake, A., J. Eugenio-Martin, N. Gooroochum, B. Hay, J. Lennon, G. Sugiyarto, T. Sinclair, and I. Yeoman (2004). “Tourism in Scotland: The Moffat Model for Tourism Forecasting and Policy Implications in Complex Situations.” Paper presented at State of the Art Conference II, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland, June. Blake, A., and M. T. Sinclair (2003). “Tourism Crisis Management: US Response to September 11.” Annals of Tourism Research, 30 (4): 813-32. Brown, M. (2003). “Security Problems and Security Policy in a Grave New World.” In Grave New World: Security Challenges in the 21st Century, edited by M. Brown. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press. CNN (2005). “War in Iraq: US and Coalition Casualities.” Retrieved from http://edition.cnn.com/. Cary, D. (2004). Prospects for Transatlantic Aviation. VisitScotland’s Future Lecture Series, unpublished, 7 January. Edinburgh: VisitScotland. Cordesman, A. H. (2004a). “One Year On: National Building in Iraq.” Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved April 8, 2004, from http://csis.org/features/iraq _oneyearon.pdf. ———(2004b). “The Implications of the Current Fighting in Iraq.” Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved April 8, 2004, from http://csis.org/features/iraq_implications.pdf. De Gues, A. P. (1997). The Living Company. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Denzin, N. K., and Y. S. Lincoln (2002). Handbook of Qualitative Research. London: Sage. Dodds, R., and A. Hocking (1994). Solving Messy Problems: A Guide to Problem Structuring Techniques. Report Ni IC 93-075. The Hague: Shell International Petroleum. Durie, A. J. (2003). Scotland for the Holidays? Tourism in Scotland C.1780- 1939. Edinburgh: Tuckwell. “Business versus Bush” (2003). Economist, October 16. Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.economist.com. Eden, C., and F. Ackermann (1998). Strategy Making. London: Sage. Fuller, D. (2004). “Tourism ‘unaffected’ by bombing.” Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news. Galt, M., G. Chicoine-Piper, N. Chicoine-Piper, and A. Hodgson (1997). Idon Scenario Thinking: How to Navigate the Uncertainties of Unknown Futures. Pitlochry, Scotland: Idon Thinking Resources. Glaesser, D. (2003). Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry. London: Butterworth-Heinemann German Marshall Fund of the United States (2002). “Americans and Europeans Agree That Terrorism Is Top Threat: Landmark Survey Finds ‘A World Transformed’ One Year after September 11.” World Views Report. Retrieved from http://www.gmfus.org/apps/gmf/ gmfwebfinal.nsf/$UNIDviewAll/ E3F17ABFA755EEC585256C2900520C9A?opendocument& K1E73ABE2. Hall, C. M. (2002). “Travel Safety, Tourism and the Media: The Significance of the Issue-Attention Cycle.” Current Issues in Tourism, 5 (5): 458-66 Hay, B., and I. Yeoman (2005). “Our Ambitions for Scottish Tourism: Turning Scenarios into Strategy.” Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (1): 89-102 Hobsbawn, E. (2000). On the Edge of the New Century. New York: Franklin Watts. Hodgson, A. M. (1992). “Hexagons for Systems Thinking.” European Journal of Operational Research, 59: 220-30. Huff, A. (1990). Mapping Strategic Thought. Chichester, UK: Wiley. Kerr, W. R. (2003). Tourism Public Policy and the Strategic Management of Failure. Oxford: Pergamon. L{\'e}vi-Strauss, C. (1996). The Savage Mind. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Lindgren, M., and H. Bandhold (2003). Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Meyer, L. (2002). “After an Attack on Iraq: The Economic Consequence.” Retrieved February 1, 2004, from http://www.csis.org/features/ attackoniraq_summary.pdf. Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) (2003). Report to VisitScotland on the Economic Impact and Marketing Analysis of a War in Iraq. Oxford: Oxford Economic Forecasting. Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (2004). “International Arrivals to the U.S.” Retrieved March 19, 2004, from http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/ view/f-2003-203-001/index.html?ti_cart_cookie= 20040319.111356.02615. Porter, M. (1985). Competitive Advantage. New York: Free Press Ranstorp, M. (2003). “Statement to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States.” Retrieved April 5, 2004, from http:// www.st-andrews.ac.uk/academic/intrel/research/cstpv/pdffiles/Statement{\%} 20by{\%}20Dr{\%}20Magnus.pdf. Ratcliffe, J. (2003). “Scenario Planning: An Evaluation of Practice.” Futures Research Quarterly, 19 (4): 5-26. Rifkin, J. (2004). “The Hydrogen Economy.” Paper presented at the World Futures Society Conference, Hyatt Grand Hotel, Washington, DC, July 31-August 2. Ringland, G. (2002). Scenarios in Public Policy. Chichester, UK: Wiley. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency Doubleday. ———(2003). Inevitable Surprises: A Survival Guide for the 21st Century. London: Simon & Schuster. Sinclair, T., and G. Sugiyarto (2003a). “One in Five Workers in Bali Will Lose Their Job Following Bomb Blast Say Experts.” Press release by Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute. Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/ttri/. ———(2003b). “The Mombasa Attack Could Damage the Process of Tourism Recovery in Kenya.” Press release by Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute. Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http:// www.nottingham.ac.uk/ttri/. Sonmez, S. F. (1998). “Tourism, Terrorism and Political Instability.” Annals of Tourism Research, 25 (2): 416-56. Sparrow, J. (1998). Knowledge in Organisation. London: Sage. Tress, B., and G. Tress (2003). “Scenario Visualisation for Participatory Landscape Planning.” Landscape and Urban Planning, 64 (3): 161-78. Van der Heijden, K., R. Bradfield, G. Burt, G. Cairns, and G. Wright (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester, UK: Wiley. VisitScotland (2003). “Tourism in Scotland 2002.” Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.scotexchange.net. ———(2004). “Tourism Statistics for Scotland in 2002.” Retrieved March 19, 2004, from www.scotexchange.net. Weick, K. E. (1995). Sensemaking in Organizations. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Wheeler,B. (2004).“What Could Train Learn fromPlanes?” Retrieved March 23, 2004, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/3512350.stm. Wilkinson, P. (2000). “The Strategic Implications of Terrorism.” In Terrorism and Political Violence, edited by M. L. Sondhi. Delhi: Har-anand. Yeoman, I. (2003). War in Iraq: Not a Scenario. Edinburgh: VisitScotland ———(2004a). “War and Economic Disruption.” Quality Scotland Breakfast Seminar, February 12. Retrieved from http:// www.qualityscotland.co.uk/train_event/downloads.htm. ——— (2004b). “What Do You Want Scottish Tourism to Look Like in 2015?” Quarterly Economic Commentary, 29 (2): 31-47. Yeoman, I., and P. Lederer (2005). “Scenarios and Visions for Scottish Tourism.” Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (1): 71-88. JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH 19 Downloaded from jtr.sagepub.com at University of Ulster Library on April 10, 2014 Yeoman, I., J. Lennon, and L. Black (2005). “Foot and Mouth Disease: A Re-Occurrence for Scottish Tourism.” Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (2): 179-90. Yeoman, I., J. Lennon, and U. McMahon-Beattie (2005). “West Nile Virus: A Scenario or Not for Scottish Tourism.” Working paper. Edinburgh: VisitScotland. Yeoman, I., and U. McMahon-Beattie (2004). “Preparing for Tomorrow: Policy Implications for Scotland’s Tourism Scenarios.” Paper presented at the Centre of Tourism Policy Studies 3rd International Symposium: Local Frameworks and Global Realities, Brighton University, UK, September 9-10. ——— (2005). “Developing a Scenario Planning Process Using a Blank Piece of Paper.” Tourism and Hospitality Research, 5 (3): 273-85. Yong, Y. W., K. A. Keng, and T. L. Leng (1989). “A Delphi Forecast for the Singapore Tourism Industry: Future Scenario and Marketing Implications.” European Journal of Marketing, 23 (11): 15-26. 20 AUGUST 2005 Downloaded from",
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A Case Study of How VisitScotland Prepared for War. / Yeoman, I; Galt, M; McMahon-Beattie, U.

In: Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 44, No. 1, 2005, p. 6-20.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - A Case Study of How VisitScotland Prepared for War

AU - Yeoman, I

AU - Galt, M

AU - McMahon-Beattie, U

N1 - Reference text: BBC 2004. “London Terror Attack ‘Inevitable.’” Retrieved from http:// www.bbc.co.uk/news. Blake, A., J. Eugenio-Martin, N. Gooroochum, B. Hay, J. Lennon, G. Sugiyarto, T. Sinclair, and I. Yeoman (2004). “Tourism in Scotland: The Moffat Model for Tourism Forecasting and Policy Implications in Complex Situations.” Paper presented at State of the Art Conference II, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland, June. Blake, A., and M. T. Sinclair (2003). “Tourism Crisis Management: US Response to September 11.” Annals of Tourism Research, 30 (4): 813-32. Brown, M. (2003). “Security Problems and Security Policy in a Grave New World.” In Grave New World: Security Challenges in the 21st Century, edited by M. Brown. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press. CNN (2005). “War in Iraq: US and Coalition Casualities.” Retrieved from http://edition.cnn.com/. Cary, D. (2004). Prospects for Transatlantic Aviation. VisitScotland’s Future Lecture Series, unpublished, 7 January. Edinburgh: VisitScotland. Cordesman, A. H. (2004a). “One Year On: National Building in Iraq.” Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved April 8, 2004, from http://csis.org/features/iraq _oneyearon.pdf. ———(2004b). “The Implications of the Current Fighting in Iraq.” Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved April 8, 2004, from http://csis.org/features/iraq_implications.pdf. De Gues, A. P. (1997). The Living Company. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Denzin, N. K., and Y. S. Lincoln (2002). Handbook of Qualitative Research. London: Sage. Dodds, R., and A. Hocking (1994). Solving Messy Problems: A Guide to Problem Structuring Techniques. Report Ni IC 93-075. The Hague: Shell International Petroleum. Durie, A. J. (2003). Scotland for the Holidays? Tourism in Scotland C.1780- 1939. Edinburgh: Tuckwell. “Business versus Bush” (2003). Economist, October 16. Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.economist.com. Eden, C., and F. Ackermann (1998). Strategy Making. London: Sage. Fuller, D. (2004). “Tourism ‘unaffected’ by bombing.” Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news. Galt, M., G. Chicoine-Piper, N. Chicoine-Piper, and A. Hodgson (1997). Idon Scenario Thinking: How to Navigate the Uncertainties of Unknown Futures. Pitlochry, Scotland: Idon Thinking Resources. Glaesser, D. (2003). Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry. London: Butterworth-Heinemann German Marshall Fund of the United States (2002). “Americans and Europeans Agree That Terrorism Is Top Threat: Landmark Survey Finds ‘A World Transformed’ One Year after September 11.” World Views Report. Retrieved from http://www.gmfus.org/apps/gmf/ gmfwebfinal.nsf/$UNIDviewAll/ E3F17ABFA755EEC585256C2900520C9A?opendocument& K1E73ABE2. Hall, C. M. (2002). “Travel Safety, Tourism and the Media: The Significance of the Issue-Attention Cycle.” Current Issues in Tourism, 5 (5): 458-66 Hay, B., and I. Yeoman (2005). “Our Ambitions for Scottish Tourism: Turning Scenarios into Strategy.” Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (1): 89-102 Hobsbawn, E. (2000). On the Edge of the New Century. New York: Franklin Watts. Hodgson, A. M. (1992). “Hexagons for Systems Thinking.” European Journal of Operational Research, 59: 220-30. Huff, A. (1990). Mapping Strategic Thought. Chichester, UK: Wiley. Kerr, W. R. (2003). Tourism Public Policy and the Strategic Management of Failure. Oxford: Pergamon. Lévi-Strauss, C. (1996). The Savage Mind. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Lindgren, M., and H. Bandhold (2003). Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Meyer, L. (2002). “After an Attack on Iraq: The Economic Consequence.” Retrieved February 1, 2004, from http://www.csis.org/features/ attackoniraq_summary.pdf. Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) (2003). Report to VisitScotland on the Economic Impact and Marketing Analysis of a War in Iraq. Oxford: Oxford Economic Forecasting. Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (2004). “International Arrivals to the U.S.” Retrieved March 19, 2004, from http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/ view/f-2003-203-001/index.html?ti_cart_cookie= 20040319.111356.02615. Porter, M. (1985). Competitive Advantage. New York: Free Press Ranstorp, M. (2003). “Statement to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States.” Retrieved April 5, 2004, from http:// www.st-andrews.ac.uk/academic/intrel/research/cstpv/pdffiles/Statement% 20by%20Dr%20Magnus.pdf. Ratcliffe, J. (2003). “Scenario Planning: An Evaluation of Practice.” Futures Research Quarterly, 19 (4): 5-26. Rifkin, J. (2004). “The Hydrogen Economy.” Paper presented at the World Futures Society Conference, Hyatt Grand Hotel, Washington, DC, July 31-August 2. Ringland, G. (2002). Scenarios in Public Policy. Chichester, UK: Wiley. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency Doubleday. ———(2003). Inevitable Surprises: A Survival Guide for the 21st Century. London: Simon & Schuster. Sinclair, T., and G. Sugiyarto (2003a). “One in Five Workers in Bali Will Lose Their Job Following Bomb Blast Say Experts.” Press release by Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute. Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/ttri/. ———(2003b). “The Mombasa Attack Could Damage the Process of Tourism Recovery in Kenya.” Press release by Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute. Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http:// www.nottingham.ac.uk/ttri/. Sonmez, S. F. (1998). “Tourism, Terrorism and Political Instability.” Annals of Tourism Research, 25 (2): 416-56. Sparrow, J. (1998). Knowledge in Organisation. London: Sage. Tress, B., and G. Tress (2003). “Scenario Visualisation for Participatory Landscape Planning.” Landscape and Urban Planning, 64 (3): 161-78. Van der Heijden, K., R. Bradfield, G. Burt, G. Cairns, and G. Wright (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester, UK: Wiley. VisitScotland (2003). “Tourism in Scotland 2002.” Retrieved March 17, 2004, from http://www.scotexchange.net. ———(2004). “Tourism Statistics for Scotland in 2002.” Retrieved March 19, 2004, from www.scotexchange.net. Weick, K. E. (1995). Sensemaking in Organizations. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Wheeler,B. (2004).“What Could Train Learn fromPlanes?” Retrieved March 23, 2004, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/3512350.stm. Wilkinson, P. (2000). “The Strategic Implications of Terrorism.” In Terrorism and Political Violence, edited by M. L. Sondhi. Delhi: Har-anand. Yeoman, I. (2003). War in Iraq: Not a Scenario. Edinburgh: VisitScotland ———(2004a). “War and Economic Disruption.” Quality Scotland Breakfast Seminar, February 12. Retrieved from http:// www.qualityscotland.co.uk/train_event/downloads.htm. ——— (2004b). “What Do You Want Scottish Tourism to Look Like in 2015?” Quarterly Economic Commentary, 29 (2): 31-47. Yeoman, I., and P. Lederer (2005). “Scenarios and Visions for Scottish Tourism.” Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (1): 71-88. JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH 19 Downloaded from jtr.sagepub.com at University of Ulster Library on April 10, 2014 Yeoman, I., J. Lennon, and L. Black (2005). “Foot and Mouth Disease: A Re-Occurrence for Scottish Tourism.” Journal of Vacation Marketing, 11 (2): 179-90. Yeoman, I., J. Lennon, and U. McMahon-Beattie (2005). “West Nile Virus: A Scenario or Not for Scottish Tourism.” Working paper. Edinburgh: VisitScotland. Yeoman, I., and U. McMahon-Beattie (2004). “Preparing for Tomorrow: Policy Implications for Scotland’s Tourism Scenarios.” Paper presented at the Centre of Tourism Policy Studies 3rd International Symposium: Local Frameworks and Global Realities, Brighton University, UK, September 9-10. ——— (2005). “Developing a Scenario Planning Process Using a Blank Piece of Paper.” Tourism and Hospitality Research, 5 (3): 273-85. Yong, Y. W., K. A. Keng, and T. L. Leng (1989). “A Delphi Forecast for the Singapore Tourism Industry: Future Scenario and Marketing Implications.” European Journal of Marketing, 23 (11): 15-26. 20 AUGUST 2005 Downloaded from

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - VisitScotland, the national tourism agency for Scotland,used a scenario-planning process to untangle the complexityof the forthcoming war in Iraq. The scenarios explored theimpact of such a war on tourism against a backdrop of aneconomic environment of failing equity markets and GDP. In2003, Scotland was on the verge of a recession, andVisitScotland wanted to know how war would affect this economicenvironment and, simultaneously, how this would affectdifferent tourism markets. VisitScotland constructedfour scenarios: how the West was won, global Northern Ireland,new dawn, and into the valley of death. The scenarioshelped the organization develop policies and actions to dealwith contingencies in each scenario. More importantly, thearticle shows how VisitScotland managed the process, whatit did, and policy implications for the future.

AB - VisitScotland, the national tourism agency for Scotland,used a scenario-planning process to untangle the complexityof the forthcoming war in Iraq. The scenarios explored theimpact of such a war on tourism against a backdrop of aneconomic environment of failing equity markets and GDP. In2003, Scotland was on the verge of a recession, andVisitScotland wanted to know how war would affect this economicenvironment and, simultaneously, how this would affectdifferent tourism markets. VisitScotland constructedfour scenarios: how the West was won, global Northern Ireland,new dawn, and into the valley of death. The scenarioshelped the organization develop policies and actions to dealwith contingencies in each scenario. More importantly, thearticle shows how VisitScotland managed the process, whatit did, and policy implications for the future.

U2 - 10.1177/0047287505276587

DO - 10.1177/0047287505276587

M3 - Article

VL - 44

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EP - 20

JO - Journal of Travel Research

T2 - Journal of Travel Research

JF - Journal of Travel Research

SN - 0047-2875

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ER -