Deplete and Retreat: The Future of Andean Water Towers

Climate change is threatening the supplies of water held in the water towers of the Andes, which provide downstream water for drinking, hydropower, farming and eco-system services. The role of the cryosphere in the hydrology of these catchments is changing, with depleting stores of water held in snow and glaciers in retreat. Snowfall is increasingly variable, with temperature and precipitation extremes predicted to increase due to a stronger and more variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and an intensified Southern Annular Mode (SAM). These conditions will exacerbate glacio-climatic feedbacks which modulate the response of glaciers to climate change. To evaluate the changing role of the cryosphere, and inform water resource management strategies, our models require upskilling. Our aim is to assess the hydrological sensitivity of nine glaciated river catchments across the latitudinal and climatological range of the Andes (9-50 °S), to changes in climate from 1850 to 2100 CE. To achieve this, we will combine state-of-the-art climate, ice-flow, and hydrology models, and evaluate their performance against published and newly collected datasets.