"We cannot assume that North-South trade offsets the problems of Northern Ireland Protocol"

Press/Media: Expert Comment

Description

Article in the Newsletter

My analysis presenting 4 reasons to doubt claim NI exports to RoI have grown by about three-quarters since start of 2021:

- There is trade diversion as well as creation going on here.

- Comparison of 2021 to 2020 is distorted by the "low base" during pandemic. Better to compare early 2021 with early 2019.

-The RoI CSO data has already been substantial revised (downwards) this could happen again.

- NISRA/TII data re. movement of lorries and vans across major Border crossing is NOT consistent with a massive upsurge in trade.

Period	21 Aug 2021

Title	"We cannot assume that North-South trade offsets the problems of the Northern Ireland Protocol"
Degree of recognition	Regional
Media name/outlet	Newsletter
Media type	Print
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
Date	21/08/21
Description	My article in Newsletter
Producer/Author	Esmond Birnie
URL	https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/esmond-birnie-we-cannot-assume-that-north-south-trade-offsets-the-problems-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol-3354890
Persons	Esmond Birnie

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland economy, political impact on economy, devolution, devolved policies, economic policy, economic growth, UK growth
Northern Ireland economy, UK economy, economic growth, productivity, GDP, GVA, economic growth
Protocol
Northern Ireland Protocol
Trade creation
Trade diversion
North-South Trade
Cross-Border Trade
Freight movements
Republic of Ireland Trade
Brexit
Brexit trade effects