"We cannot assume that North-South trade offsets the problems of Northern Ireland Protocol"

Press/Media: Expert Comment


Article in the Newsletter


My analysis presenting 4 reasons to doubt claim NI exports to RoI have grown by about three-quarters since start of 2021:

- There is trade diversion as well as creation going on here.

- Comparison of 2021 to 2020 is distorted by the "low base" during pandemic. Better to compare early 2021 with early 2019.

-The RoI CSO data has already been substantial revised (downwards) this could happen again.

- NISRA/TII data re. movement of lorries and vans across major Border crossing is NOT consistent with a massive upsurge in trade.

Period21 Aug 2021

Media contributions


Media contributions


  • Northern Ireland
  • Northern Ireland economy, political impact on economy, devolution, devolved policies, economic policy, economic growth, UK growth
  • Northern Ireland economy, UK economy, economic growth, productivity, GDP, GVA, economic growth
  • Protocol
  • Northern Ireland Protocol
  • Trade creation
  • Trade diversion
  • North-South Trade
  • Cross-Border Trade
  • Freight movements
  • Republic of Ireland Trade
  • Brexit
  • Brexit trade effects