Understanding succession cliff edge

Description

On the island of Ireland, drystock farming, which 
involves the raising of cattle and sheep for meat production, faces an uncertain future. Many drystock farms have weak 
economic performance due to their relatively small size, and new environmental regulations and technological change are disrupting established ways of working.

Farming is also experiencing an increasingly challenging operating environment with volatile markets, weather extremes and recent inflationary pressures. Despite these, farming practices show little sign of changing and more support 
for farmers in understanding how to adapt is required.

Drystock enterprises represent over two-thirds of farms on the 
island. Many are small family-run pursuits. Policymakers point to the next generation as a possible solution, and predict increased investment, efficiency, innovation and a revival in agriculture.
It is widely acknowledged that increasing levels of generational 
renewal has been difficult. The farmer population is ageing with 
the current average age of drystock farmers in Ireland now reaching 59 years old. A reluctance to retire or step back is often cited as the cause, as well as a reliance on the farm as a source of income. This means delayed succession with 
managerial control of the farm not being transferred to the next generation.

It is evident that rising costs and the requirement to meet environmental targets creates financial pressure on family farms. This may cause the farmer to keep control of the farm for longer. Rising costs may also result in reduced capital investment and this, combined with lower returns, make the farm less attractive to the next generation. And, of course, the next generation often are earning substantially more in the greener, more stable pastures of careers beyond the farm. In fact, there is emerging evidence to suggest the next generation of farmers are becoming more aspirational in pursuit of off-farm opportunities as opposed to farm opportunities.

It is well documented that current farmers see farming as an important part of their identity and culture. This is so important that in some instances farmers continue to farm when it is unprofitable to do so or when physical health is 
poor. Some evidence suggests this is not the case for potential successors. There is a shift in mindset from a sense of duty to a more pragmatic approach in which the pros and cons of farming are weighed against other off-farm opportunities.

With an average age of 59 for farmers, this suggests a lot of potential successors are likely to be in their mid-thirties or older, with most of these likely to be employed 
off-farm, with an established personal life away from the farming. Many may have been away from the farm for quite some time and consequently lack the skills and knowledge required.

We do not know much about the intentions of this group of ‘older’ potential successors. We do not 
know if they are not farming because their parents will not give up control, or because they do not want control. Moreover, we do not know what they will do with the farm. Will they, for example, farm it as it is, innovate and diversify operations, pass it straight to their children, let it as conacre, plant trees, or sell it? If they do intend to operate the farm as a business, do 
they have the skills required?

To better understand the intentions of the next generation of drystock farmers and identify necessary policy support interventions, research is being conducted at Ulster University in collaboration with Teagasc and Macra.

If you are over 35 years old, have the potential to inherit a beef or sheep farm, and do not currently have managerial control, we invite you to participate in the study. Please contact PhD Researcher Holly Mullan at shepherd-h@ulster.
ac.uk for more information