Six economists give their predictions for 2019

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Article giving economic predictions for2019

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Predictions can be a mug’s game.

 

Things turned out better than I expected in the Korean peninsula in 2018. There are plenty of geopolitical wildcards for the coming year: the China-US trade war and the Russia-Ukraine semi-hot war. There may be marked instability in Saudi Arabia at some point in the next decade though what that will mean for global oil prices and de-carbonization remains unclear. And it probably won’t happen next year.

 

During 2019 half the world’s population will be online. Next year the Indian statistical authorities will be able to announce that the Indian economy over-took the British economy in terms of its size as measured by GDP at the exchange rate in 2018. Both these outcomes reflect very long run trends.

 

January will see the 20th anniversary of the Euro single currency. It survival has surprised me but it is still more of a grand political project than what economists call an optimal currency area.

 

Sadly, restoration of devolution is very unlikely in 2019. A catastrophic recession, deeper than the 1920s and 1930s, of the type the Bank of England and Treasury have been warning us about, is still unlikely even in a no-deal Brexit. That said, the history of Anglo-Irish relations contains episodes of self-destructive irrationality originating from either London or Dublin or sometimes both!

 

 

Period1 Jan 2019

Media contributions

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Media contributions

  • TitleSix economists give predictions for 2019
    Degree of recognitionRegional
    Media name/outletBelfast Telegraph
    Duration/Length/SizeSixth of a page
    CountryUnited Kingdom
    Date1/01/19
    Producer/AuthorEsmond Birnie
    PersonsEsmond Birnie