Economic cost (impact on GDP) on Northern Ireland of the further 2 weeks of COVID-related restrictions

Press/Media: Expert Comment


Estimated upper limit to the further GDP reduction related to the 2-4 week closures of schools, hospitality and catering and some other service sector activities of £700m

(based on the approximate relationship derived from the first, 3 month lockdown period March-June 2020, that at the UK and probably NI level too each month of a "full" lockdown was associated with a c. 3% reduction in GDP. We assume that the late October restrictions will be no more than half as "intense" as those during the Spring. Hence a GDP reduction of one half of  3% of £45,000m (NI's GDP after a 10% already from the first lockdown), i.e. 1.5% of £45,000m or c. £700m).


Attempt to put a "cash" value on the economic output (GDP) which will be lost because of further lockdown type restrictions

Period15 Oct 2020

Media contributions


Media contributions

  • TitleEconomic cost to Northern Ireland of further business restrictions during COVID-19
    Degree of recognitionInternational
    Media name/outletBBC (national, i.e. London) News 6pm and 10pm
    Media typeTelevision
    Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
    DescriptionThe impact on NI GDP, c. £700m worst case
    Producer/AuthorFigures estimated by Esmond Birnie and then cited by BBC News
    PersonsEsmond Birnie


  • Northern Ireland
  • Northern Ireland economy, political impact on economy, devolution, devolved policies, economic policy, economic growth, UK growth
  • Northern Ireland economy, UK economy, economic growth, productivity, GDP, GVA, economic growth
  • COVID-19 response