|
Source |
Cumulative until |
COVID deaths |
Population figure used |
COVID death rate per million |
Pop-ulation density 2018, persons per km2 |
NI |
COVID-19 on death certificate. NISRA (26 June 2020). |
12 June 2020 |
795 |
1.8937m (NISRA projection for June 2019, 6 May 2020) |
419.8 |
136 |
RoI |
COVID deaths across all settings- those with a positive test for the virus plus “probable and suspected”. Health Protection Surveillance Centre 26 June 2020: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/ |
12 June 2020 |
1705 |
4.9215m (CSO projection for April 2019, 27 Aug. 2020) |
346.4 |
71 |
England&Wales |
COVID-19 on death certificate. ONS 23 June 2020, “Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional”. |
12 June 2020 |
48538 |
59.43984 m(CSO, 2019) |
816.6 |
392 |
Scotland |
COVID-19 on death certificate. ONS 24 June 2020, “Deaths involving coronavirus in Scotland, Week 25, 15 to 21 June 2020” |
14 June 2020 |
4070 |
5.463667m (CSO, 2019) |
744.9 |
70 |
NI has a much higher population density (high density makes rapid spread of the virus more likely because social distancing is harder). NI also has a higher elderly population (over 60s are generally much more liable to die from COVID). At the same time, given a higher proportion of the population from black and minority ethnic backgrounds, the RoI’s susceptibility to COVID-19 deaths may have been somewhat increased (though given that the population share difference is only about three percentage points probably not by enough to outweigh the favourable impact of having a younger and less dense population).
Comparison to other Western countries
The following Diagram shows that across the Western countries higher population density is generally associated with relatively higher COVID-19 death rates. The red, “best fit”, line indicates the extent to which as density goes up, the death rate also tends to be higher.
Diagram 1: COVID-19 death rate- narrower definition*- 25 June 2020 (deaths per 1m) compared to 2018 population density (persons per squ. km.)
Note: *: The international date tends to be restricted to deaths in hospital and/or those with a positive test result. NI’s COVID-19 death rate for 25 June 2020 (Department for Health Dashboard figure for where there is a positive test for COVID-19).RoI’s figure, similarly, on a “narrower basis” than that in Table 1.
Sources: NISRA, Wordometer (The Times, 25 June 2020), World Bank (2020).
Of the countries shown, NI ranks 9th out of 26 in terms of population density (see Annex) and also 10th of the 26 in terms of COVID death rates. High population density countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK have some of the highest COVID-19 death rates. It is also true that some lower density countries such as France, Spain, Sweden and the USA also have relatively high death rates. The data suggests that rather than the RoI’s death rate being relatively low it is out of line compared to other Western countries with very low population densities. The same applies to NI. NI’s rate is about seventy times that in Australia and New Zealand and four to six times higher than that in Austria, Finland and Norway and three times that in Denmark.”
Ends
ANNEX Table 2: Western country population densities (2018) and COVID-19 death rates/narrower definition, 25 June 2020
|
Population density, per km squ |
|
Death rate per m., 25 June 2020* |
|
|
Netherlands |
511 |
|
356 |
|
|
Belgium |
376 |
|
839 |
|
|
UK |
275 |
|
637 |
|
|
Germany |
237 |
|
108 |
|
|
Switzerland |
215 |
|
226 |
|
|
Italy |
205 |
|
574 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
138 |
|
32 |
|
|
Denmark |
138 |
|
104 |
|
|
NI |
136 |
|
289 |
|
|
Poland |
124 |
|
37 |
|
|
France |
122 |
|
456 |
|
|
Portugal |
112 |
|
152 |
|
|
Hungary |
108 |
|
60 |
|
|
Austria |
107 |
|
78 |
|
|
Spain |
94 |
|
606 |
|
|
Romania |
85 |
|
81 |
|
|
Serbia |
80 |
|
30 |
|
|
Ukraine |
77 |
|
24 |
|
|
RoI |
71 |
|
299 |
24-Jun |
|
USA |
36 |
|
384 |
|
|
Sweden |
25 |
|
518 |
|
|
New Zealand |
19 |
|
4 |
|
|
Finland |
18 |
|
59 |
|
|
Norway |
15 |
|
46 |
|
|
Canada |
4 |
|
225 |
|
|
Australia |
3 |
|
4 |
|
|
Sources: For COVID-19 death rates 25 June 2020: NISRA, Wordometer (The Times, 26 June 2020). For population densities World Bank (2020) and for NI Statista.com.
NI for 25 June 2020 Department of Health Dashboard COVID-19 Death Details: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
RoI for 24 June 2020 Statement from the National Public Health Emergency Team 26 June 2020:https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/93d1b-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-friday-26-june/
Note:*: Wordometer uses the “narrower” (death in hospital/COVID positive test) for the UK and it is assumed this is the case for the other countries. Because of this we used the same, narrower definition for both NI and the RoI (rather than the broader “COVID-related” definition used in Table 1 above.
Media contributions
1Media contributions
Title Comparison of NI's COVID-19 related death rates to RoI, GB and internationally Degree of recognition Regional Media name/outlet BBC NI Media type Television Country United Kingdom Date 26/06/20 Producer/Author Esmond Birnie provided to BBC Persons Esmond Birnie
Keywords
- Northern Ireland economy, political impact on economy, devolution, devolved policies, economic policy, economic growth, UK growth
- COVID-19
- COVID-19 response
- Death rates
- Mortality statistics
- Population density