Comparisons of COVID-19 death rates in NI, RoI, GB and internationally

Description

My analysis of the data (death rates per 100,000 of population, both for those with a positive COVID test result and also those with COVID mentioned on Death Certificate formed the basis of commentary on the 6.30 BBC Northern Ireland TV evening news.

Subject

NI's COVID-19 related death rates (per 100,000 population) compared to the RoI, England & Wales, Scotland and a range of Western economies. Also analysis of the relative population densities as a partial explanation of COVID death rates.

Grim Stats: COVID death rates Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland: GB and International comparisons

Dr Esmond Birnie, Senior Economist, Ulster University Business School

“Summary: Four points

• Using as comparable a basis as possible, the statistics for the period until 25 June indicate the cumulative death rate in NI and the RoI was broadly similar: 42 and 35 per 100,000 population, respectively. That difference is not that large and might be partly/largely explained by variations in definitions and reporting. The difference, however, may be “real”, explained in part by NI’s higher population density and relatively older population.

• We can be very certain that the cumulative death rates in both NI and RoI (42 and 35 respectively) were far short of those in GB: 82 for England and Wales and 74 for Scotland.

• Some of that difference between NI and RoI and GB may be explained by the much higher population density in England: three times higher than that NI and six times higher than that in RoI.

• Some international comparisons, notwithstanding the caveats as to whether a COVID death is being defined in exactly the same way, are much less favourable to NI and RoI. Rates have been many times higher than those in New Zealand, Australia, Austria, Finland, Norway and Denmark.

 

 

 

Comparison of death rates in terms of COVID-related in all settings

 

This exercise is not as straightforward as might be hoped- there are uncertainties as to how far the data include all deaths related to COVID, it is unclear to what extent like is really being compared to like, and there are lags in terms of how up-to-date the results are. Here is a comparison, as up-to-date as possible, until 12 June 2020:

Table 2: Our comparison of COVID death rates for NI, RoI and GB, 12 June 2020

	Source	Cumulative until	COVID deaths	Population figure used	COVID death rate per million	Pop-ulation density 2018, persons per km2
NI	COVID-19 on death certificate. NISRA (26 June 2020).	12 June 2020	795	1.8937m (NISRA projection for June 2019, 6 May 2020)	419.8	136
RoI	COVID deaths across all settings- those with a positive test for the virus plus “probable and suspected”. Health Protection Surveillance Centre 26 June 2020: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/	12 June 2020	1705	4.9215m (CSO projection for April 2019, 27 Aug. 2020)	346.4	71
England&Wales	COVID-19 on death certificate. ONS 23 June 2020, “Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional”.	12 June 2020	48538	59.43984 m(CSO, 2019)	816.6	392
Scotland	COVID-19 on death certificate. ONS 24 June 2020, “Deaths involving coronavirus in Scotland, Week 25, 15 to 21 June 2020”	14 June 2020	4070	5.463667m (CSO, 2019)	744.9	70

 

 

NI has a much higher population density (high density makes rapid spread of the virus more likely because social distancing is harder). NI also has a higher elderly population (over 60s are generally much more liable to die from COVID). At the same time, given a higher proportion of the population from black and minority ethnic backgrounds, the RoI’s susceptibility to COVID-19 deaths may have been somewhat increased (though given that the population share difference is only about three percentage points probably not by enough to outweigh the favourable impact of having a younger and less dense population).

 

Comparison to other Western countries

 

The following Diagram shows that across the Western countries higher population density is generally associated with relatively higher COVID-19 death rates. The red, “best fit”, line indicates the extent to which as density goes up, the death rate also tends to be higher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diagram 1: COVID-19 death rate- narrower definition*- 25 June 2020 (deaths per 1m) compared to 2018 population density (persons per squ. km.)

 

Note: *: The international date tends to be restricted to deaths in hospital and/or those with a positive test result. NI’s COVID-19 death rate for 25 June 2020 (Department for Health Dashboard figure for where there is a positive test for COVID-19).RoI’s figure, similarly, on a “narrower basis” than that in Table 1.

Sources: NISRA, Wordometer (The Times, 25 June 2020), World Bank (2020).

 

Of the countries shown, NI ranks 9th out of 26 in terms of population density (see Annex) and also 10^th of the 26 in terms of COVID death rates. High population density countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK have some of the highest COVID-19 death rates. It is also true that some lower density countries such as France, Spain, Sweden and the USA also have relatively high death rates. The data suggests that rather than the RoI’s death rate being relatively low  it is out of line compared to other Western countries with very low population densities. The same applies to NI. NI’s rate is about seventy times that in Australia and New Zealand and four to six times higher than that in Austria, Finland and Norway and three times that in Denmark.”

 

 

Ends

 

 

 

ANNEX Table 2: Western country population densities (2018) and COVID-19 death rates/narrower definition, 25 June 2020

	Population density, per km squ		Death rate per m., 25 June 2020*
Netherlands	511		356
Belgium	376		839
UK	275		637
Germany	237		108
Switzerland	215		226
Italy	205		574
Czech Republic	138		32
Denmark	138		104
NI	136		289
Poland	124		37
France	122		456
Portugal	112		152
Hungary	108		60
Austria	107		78
Spain	94		606
Romania	85		81
Serbia	80		30
Ukraine	77		24
RoI	71		299	24-Jun
USA	36		384
Sweden	25		518
New Zealand	19		4
Finland	18		59
Norway	15		46
Canada	4		225
Australia	3		4

 

Sources: For COVID-19 death rates 25 June 2020: NISRA, Wordometer (The Times, 26 June 2020). For population densities World Bank (2020) and for NI Statista.com.

NI for 25 June 2020 Department of Health Dashboard COVID-19 Death Details: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9

RoI for 24 June 2020 Statement from the National Public Health Emergency Team 26 June 2020:https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/93d1b-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-friday-26-june/

Note:*: Wordometer uses the “narrower” (death in hospital/COVID positive test) for the UK and it is assumed this is the case for the other countries. Because of this we used the same, narrower definition for both NI and the RoI (rather than the broader “COVID-related” definition used in Table 1 above.